Flannel Jesus wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:29 pm
I have no clue what you're talking about, but it certainly isn't an optimal betting strategy given the defined tables. You continue to engage in the conversation while trying to derail it.
Optimal for what goal?
Is your goal to remain in the game as long as possible?
Is your goal to make infinite money?
Is your goal to win?
Is your goal to exit the game (eventually)?
I am not derailing anything. I am drawing attention to your nonsense.
You cannot define the halting condition for your algorithm. When do you stop playing and why?
Flannel Jesus wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:29 pm
I invented the betting scenario to give you a tangible reason to commit to a view of the probabilities. One of the tables gives you a positive expected return if you assume 50/50, the other table gives you a positive expected return if you assume that the canonical answer is right.
You can't define "right" in Mathematics. That's always a human judgment. People have been trying for a few thousand years.
Flannel Jesus wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:29 pm
But no matter how I phrase it, no matter what I do to get you to engage with the actual probabilities at hand, you keep forcing the conversation somewhere else.
I am "forcing" the conversation into you actually defining an objective utility function.
WHY are you playing the game that you are playing?
What's your game plan?
My desperate attempts to get you to be explicit about all of those hidden variables is what you see as "derailment"
Flannel Jesus wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:29 pm
"Well what happens if I deliberately try to lose all my money?" Mate, I don't care what happens when you deliberately try to lose all your money. Nobody wants to talk about that.
Mate, that's a strawman, mate. There is no deliberation involved in losing against an infinite bank roll.
It's just a statistical certainty. Mate.
Why don't you want to talk about the fact that the game is rigged, Mate?
Flannel Jesus wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:29 pm
"Well what if I keep betting forever and ever?" Mate, again, nobody cares, that's not the point of betting hypotheticals. I'm not asking you to bet forever and ever.
Mate, there is no way to calculate probabilities if you don't ASSUME betting forever and ever. That is HOW probability is calculated.
I showed you the algorithm which performs the experiment a million iterations.
You calculate the probability by working out the limit for infinitely-many iterations.
That is what probability is. By tautological definition. The outcome after an infinitely many plays.
Now you are telling me that you aren't going to play infinitely long ?!?
Flannel Jesus wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:29 pm
I've presented the tables, you can choose your own betting strategy, you can choose your preferred table. You don't need to bet forever, and you obviously shouldn't bet everything every time. I don't know why you're so obsessed with losing on purpose.
I am not obsessed with losing on purpose. I am obsessed with winning on purpose.
Please can you define your winning strategy, your criteria for success and your optimisation function already!
Flannel Jesus wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:29 pm
If you don't want more money, then just imagine that you did, lmao.
Strawman. If you want more money why would you ever stop playing?