Wagner moving into Niger (close to WW3)

[Constantine]

1 1/2 hours till the deadline hits. Niger closed it's airspace again a hour ago. I've been seeing alot of rather fake troop movements last few days, but no actual evidence a single soldier has staged anywhere for ECOWAS. Pro-Coup twitter is claiming forces from the junta have moved towards the Nigerian border.... which tactically would be moronic. Better off hunkering down indoors in prepared positions in the cities.

I'm quite doubtful of anyone's ability to blitz here. They've never shown this large scale capacity.

No evidence of Niger troops talking with their ECOWAS counterparts on defecting or launching a counter mutiny.... think by now someone would of spoke up saying no.

This is also going to be a absurdly difficult hostage rescue mission. I expect very low success of keeping the president alive.... if he is even still alive. It's a Hail Mary operation.

So waiting.... is the US and France in a state of war in 1 1/2 hours?

[Constantine]

France just suspended aid to Burkino Faso, a coup supporter nation.

[promethean75]

That's fine, I've got assets in the area that'll handle it. Sending you the account numbers now. Tell your handlers we don't make our move until we see half up front. You know the deal.

[Constantine]

ECOWAS to make a announcement at the end of the day. Which is technically a half hour from now.

Press releases are confusing.

[Constantine]

Negotiations are underway between Niger and Ecowas to extend the deadline.

France24 has decided the mobilization of two "central African countries" actually means more reasonably two ECOWAS countries Benin and Nigeria. Which makes a hell of alot more sense, everyone was stumped on that earlier.

[Constantine]

3 minutes till WW3

[Constantine]

Flights from as south as South Africa heading to London are being rerouted. I'm flabbergasted they plotted a flight path over Niger the night of the ultimatum.

No news on troop movements. Niger is claiming ECOWAS assembled several hundred troops on the border, but I've seen no reliable images from either side.

[promethean75]

Linking to satellite imagery. The Chinese servers we usually use are fireproofed now so we're bouncing the signals between a few Russian communications satellites to scramble the code IDN signature. You're safe to use your laptop. As far as the French know you're somewhere in Chile right now. Just keep the USB drive with u once the imagery is downloaded. Transferring data in three... two....

[Constantine]

Nothing so far.

Why make a deadline like that if you won't enforce it?

[vegetariantaxidermy]

What a ghoul.

[Constantine]

ECOWAS summit Thursday. Which is 4 days after the deadline. This doesn't mean there won't be a attack prior, but likewise doesn't mean there will be one immediately afterwards. Looks like Nigeria was bluffing, so a argument we are living in WW3 is briefly averted.

[Constantine]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nK__R6JDJTM

Niger executed a French flag colored chicken in a stadium today. Germany and Italy wants the deadline reextended.... but I haven't seen a single reliable image of a soldier or military vehicle of any type moved by ECOWAS yet. Which is weird.

[Constantine]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=VR4ll1iASW8

The good news is it appears the US (and Italy) are pulling troops out of Niger. So it appears the US won't be directly involved in the war. It also sends a clear signal of little faith in ECOWAS to restore the government.

Where Wagner goes, host countries only get poorer. So things are only going to become worst in Nigeria.... especially as Islamic groups have absolutely no love for Wagner due to Syria, and Russia in general. And they will absolutely grow as time goes by.

Still a very good chance ECOWAS will invade, but put the odds of the president surviving at very, very low.

Used to have a Nigerian pen pal.... Christian. He suddenly stopped replying, pretty certain he died. He lived in a border area. I told him to sandbag the interior of his house if he was going to stay. Thought staying was idiotic. Also had a Egyptian pen pal (athiest, but thought he was muslim for a long time) who insisted on busting up a Israeli embassy even though he liked Israel. Said he was just fascinated with the actions of the crowd. He too vanished shortly after. Alot of stupid shit happens as a result of this group think euphoria, consequences not considered.

I'm also dissapointed in the OSINT community in Nigeria. Know their paratroopers are equal to western. So no real reason for this deficit. I should be seeing pics of troop movements and staging areas. We get that even for China and Myanmar.

[Constantine]

A delegation from the African Union, United Nations and ECOWAS was denied entry into Niger.

[Constantine]

The US delegate did make it through. Victoria Nuland.

Surprising. US was already sending forces out of country so it wouldn't be a meeting to say get them out. They talked about something else.