Wagner moving into Niger (close to WW3)

[Constantine]

It's looking like Wagner Group is about to move into Niger from Mali. A friend of mine was tracking flights earlier today and ECOWAS is still intending to invade Niger at the end of the week (5 days from now).

Since it involves Wagner and the US and France is backing ECOWAS, (west African states) it looks like we are very close to a WW3 mild war scenario.

In order to grasp the methods of African warfare.... the recent war in Ethiopia killed 600,000 people. Sudan is in a war. The two countries backing the coup in Niger are fellow coup countries. I'm not too impressed with the US efforts in AFRICOM the last few years, mostly women's rights, trandgender drivel seminars and the real gold is getting African countries to head to Djbouti to compete with one another in Special Forces courses. I don't think it is structured to support a war outside of SF affiliations, as in "Hey, we have trainers who know these guys" and "Air Force can supply logistics (if airfields are secured)."

I know France should of left Africa decades ago, but Wagner absolutely can't be allowed to fill that void either. How that plays out..... I'm trying to read Biden here.... AFRICOM is likely going to tell Biden what coalition forces have capable SF, Biden will refuse any US SF on the ground, lots of drone strikes from above. I'm doubting air artillery. Aid drops. What the French do.... I wish they would just go away. And I don't think the US should have a different foreign policy than Nigeria has.

Arguments for the Niger (not the same as Nigeria) coup staying in tact is they fight the Islamic groups. I think that is dead. They will fund and shelter them now that ECOWAS is against them.

Due to France the development of the African Union and ECOWAS has been stunted. Due to the stupidity of the French language nobody hears what happens in the Francophone world until it is too late. We don't have a good counter to Russia in the region and Putin has been sacking country after country in the region.

[Constantine]

Oh, as a reminder, the head of Wagner Group, Prigozhin, is NOT protected by Jimmy Carter's executive order prohibiting the assassination of heads of state. He's been walking around Russia (after nearly attacking Moscow) and going to fairly predictable events, recently meeting with African leaders in Moscow. Carter's executive order isn't binding on the powers of the executive branch commander in chief (foreign assassination is a right of war, congress has the power over US citizens to proscribe) and the president isn't bound by congressional acts limiting his executive power since the constitution specifically gives C&C powers to the president. I'm bringing this up because the coup leaders will claim the head leader is sovereign, but will most certainly be droned. But the US, France and ECOWAS doesn't recognize them.... but I'm guessing breitbart and a few conservative outlets will bring up Jimmy Carter so just giving background info.

I have no idea how many regions or countries have to be involved in Putin's war before it officially is WW3. Creeping up fast.

[vegetariantaxidermy]

If yanks don't want WW3 then they mght like to think about NOT voting for senile Biden at their next election--although the US Govt. is really just a front for the arms industry so in reality would probably make no difference.

[Impenitent]

the US army is in no shape to fight a war...

ww3 is inevitable and the icbms will fly

-Imp

[vegetariantaxidermy]

the US army is in no shape to fight a war...

ww3 is inevitable and the icbms will fly

-Imp

What 'shape' does a country need to be in? It would only be a matter of pressing some buttons and would probably be over in a matter of hours...

[Constantine]

Niger just appointed a new head to it's foreign intelligence service.

Four days till deadline.

[Constantine]

French are saying Niger made contact with Wagner in Mali. I haven't heard any evidence yet of mobilization of anything in ECOWAS yet.

[Constantine]

Chad is refusing to invade Niger

[Constantine]

1,000 US soldiers currently in Niger (for previous government) amd 1500 for France. I believe out 1,000 mostly for drone operations. I don't understand what Biden is doing.

[Gary Childress]

1,000 US soldiers currently in Niger (for previous government) amd 1500 for France. I believe out 1,000 mostly for drone operations. I don't understand what Biden is doing.

What is there to do? From reading a New York Times article about it, it appears a military leader took over and ousted the civilian President. What is anyone supposed to do, invade or escalate the war? Apparently military coups are a thing in West Africa right now. If West Africans want their military leaders to take over their countries, it's their decision. Otherwise, it's up to them to protest and do something about it. America is the evil empire/great satan. The Bush administration did a thorough job earning us that reputation. Nothing moral or ethical we can do now.

[Constantine]

1,000 US soldiers currently in Niger (for previous government) amd 1500 for France. I believe out 1,000 mostly for drone operations. I don't understand what Biden is doing.

What is there to do? From reading a New York Times article about it, it appears a military leader took over and ousted the civilian President. What is anyone supposed to do, invade or escalate the war? Apparently military coups are a thing in West Africa right now. If West Africans want their military leaders to take over their countries, it's their decision. Otherwise, it's up to them to protest and do something about it. America is the evil empire/great satan. The Bush administration did a thorough job earning us that reputation. Nothing moral or ethical we can do now.

That's what ECOWAS just announced. Deadline Sunday night, up to individual ECOWAS heads of state if they invade.

I've seen no OSINT chatter of movement of vehicles, so will be a bit underwhelmed if they only start coordinating that after Sunday.... it isn't a region renowned for international coalition building. But Nigeria seems determined. If US drone troops (and I'm guessing special forces) don't leave Nigeria.... they can't realistically hold a neutral position, default defense. If the Junta kills the president.... who takes over? I haven't read the Niger constitution. So don't know.

Right now I'm assuming it's all special forces and air assets with Wagner 50-50 chance of moving in. From what I recall seeing over the years from AFRICOM media, half of ECOWAS has SF on part with western infantry doing SWAT like tasks. As to their assets like helicopters, etc AFRICOM never covered and can't tell you off the top of my head. They might instinctively go for mechanized ground travel. If so Wagner won't be the problem, but rather land mines and cul de sacs in urban environments.

This mission/war won't make any sense if they can't locate the president. All the troops in the world can't restore a dead president. So.... fuck. Yeah. One man human shield.

And yeah.... coups been happening alot. It's called Wagner Group out of Russia. Shockingly not China, guess China evaluated the situation and doesn't see the advantage of hostilities towards the west or ECOWAS if they just play merchant here and urge dialogue.

[Constantine]

Also, never really locals decisions if coups happen to them. We can have a debate on the Greeks (especially Athens) experience with coups and tyrants, and overthrown of said tyrants. A coup isn't the same as a vote. But I'm sympathetic with the anti French sentiment, just not the pro-wagner. I want them eradicated from the face of the earth. The top commander of Wagner is a literal neo nazi, tattoos on him to look the part of a NAZI commander that he got in jail- he is a big fan of Richard Wagner. Dead is best for them. They show up, countries collapse, and they rape anything of economic interest. The locals don't benefit. That's 90% of my concern in Niger is booting Wagner out of Africa, or anywhere for that matter.

[Constantine]

Wagner instructors have arrived in Niger.

[Constantine]

Thr day before the deadline, ECOWAS/Niger claims it "has a plan".... which explains why I've seen zero reports of troop movements anywhere. US troops still haven't budged.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ApPFRjMlsu8

To give a comparison..... the Battle of Conoco Fields in Kurdish Syria https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Khasham involved Special Forces and Drones.... at first. Everyone ran into armored vehicles as Wagner Group and Iran attacked and just sat there. A marine detachment had to drive in to support them, followed by everything regionally in the airforce.

We have alot regionally near Syria. We do not have much in comparison close to Niger. Maybe the French do. I dunno. I'm worried this will get nasty, with US and French forces easily blitz. However, if I was the pentagon I'd be leaning on talking to commanders we've had past experience with and trying to group them up, offering them air support if they back ECOWAS and the President over the coup. That's lots of trained infantry. Problem with this is Nigeria cut off the electricity to Niger so I'm doubting cell service is at its best right now. Also the difficulty of keeping that secret.

Biden either must have a amazing strategy here, or we might see a mass slaughter of troops. I'm not one to view Biden as a strategic mastermind. Guy is a fucking idiot in terms of strategic understanding outside of criminal or unconstitutional pursuits. Of US pulls put prior to Nigeria, we lose the trust of Nigeria for a couple of generations. If we stay put and act neutral and the coup prevails, then we gotta leave.... best case scenario, more likely we lose our forces with no easy way to reinforce them via air. Fly through Nigeria.... but from where? WTF is Biden thinking?

Hopefully the coup strength is really weak and easily topples. Ideally with just ECOWAS doing the fighting.... but if they request air support and we don't follow up after backing ECOWAS then Nigeria won't ever forgive that.

[Constantine]

On my walk I think I figured out most of a air corridor. The dictator of Benghazi is a American citizen. We wouldn't have to ask (he too played with Wagner), we can just fly over and pretend diplomacy his half hearted protests. I can't find any evidence he completely controls all the way to Niger from online maps of Libya, but I'm doubting anyone is going to shoot. That's flying from Italy through Libya into Niger. Fuel hungry route. Best option if Conoco Fields suddenly happens again. That's a big time delay too.