Coronavirus Craziness

[vegetariantaxidermy]

Do you want to say something about Iran’s total cases or number of deaths?

Why do you ask? It appears to be doing worse than the US, and having to struggle with the US' vindictive sanctions at the same time is just vile and nasty.

So you’re saying that the vindictive sanctions make it more difficult for Iran to survive the pandemic. I can certainly agree to that. Surely there are other examples of US bullying making life harder for citizens of nations around the world. Care to comment on a few?

My comment was about Iran. You can comment on other countries if you wish.

[commonsense]

It seems apparent that lockdowns helped slow the spread of Covid 19 when and where utilized. This was seen early enough that various places could’ve employed this tactic or could’ve employed it earlier than was done.

What could the rationale have been for forgoing or delaying this measure? What do leaders who have omitted or delayed shutdowns see that I’m overlooking?

[Skepdick]

It seems apparent that lockdowns helped slow the spread of Covid 19 when and where utilized. This was seen early enough that various places could’ve employed this tactic or could’ve employed it earlier than was done.

What could the rationale have been for forgoing or delaying this measure? What do leaders who have omitted or delayed shutdowns see that I’m overlooking?

Lack of understanding of exponential growth - it's literally a race against time.

There are people who predicted this in January. Nobody listened.

It's the "don't believe things without empirical evidence" mindset. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tombstone_mentality

[vegetariantaxidermy]

It seems apparent that lockdowns helped slow the spread of Covid 19 when and where utilized. This was seen early enough that various places could’ve employed this tactic or could’ve employed it earlier than was done.

What could the rationale have been for forgoing or delaying this measure? What do leaders who have omitted or delayed shutdowns see that I’m overlooking?

Perhaps they could see that the 'cure' could well end up being worse than the disease?

I find it rather ironic though, that politicians are only too happy to rush into wars, causing the deaths of millions of people, while they stay safe and sound in their ivory towers. Then something comes along that can affect and kill them too, and they are running around like headless chickens, trying to contain it.

[FlashDangerpants]

It seems apparent that lockdowns helped slow the spread of Covid 19 when and where utilized. This was seen early enough that various places could’ve employed this tactic or could’ve employed it earlier than was done.

What could the rationale have been for forgoing or delaying this measure? What do leaders who have omitted or delayed shutdowns see that I’m overlooking?

For one thing there's compliance rates. Democratic nations have varyingly unruly cultures. So when the government orders Germans for instance, to stay indoors, there is a reasonable expectation that they will comply, they are like that as a population. But in Britain we whinge whenever we are inconvenienced by the Nanny State telling us what to do, whilst the Italians are not widely renowned for obeying the law at all if they don't feel like it. So lockdown etc automatically comes with it's effectiveness discounted by the local rate of typical non-compliance.

That same thing is to be multiplied by duration and repetition. Without a technical breakthrough such as a cure or a really reliable and genuinely rapid test, a single lockdown for a couple of months isn't actually going to fix the problem and a second lockdown is going to be required within a few weeks of the first ending. All of this pisses people off even more. Some will respond by complying less than they did first time round. Everyone else will hate those guys, who they will blame for the whole mess.

Those first two things are general political background that applies anywhere the government must respond in some way to public opinion (this offer does not apply to China). They don't take into account any local factors, but a few make the problem stickier in some places than others.

There's the political hardman/authoritarian regime/populist regime issue. There's two approaches they could have taken here, one is that applied by Duterte in the Phillipines, he has threatened to set his police death squads on people breaking curfew, that might work. But most other political hard men have gone the other way instead playing down the problem, and trying to protect the economy ahead of the people. This has led to Brazil, Russia, Turkey and so on all trying to pretend there is no problem and nor would they allow there to be one in various manners. Probably all three will indulge in serious consequences as a result.

Authoritarian regimes are usually careful to project an image of competence, but to maintain that, they must never attempt anything they cannot actually do. They also rely on some political base, which usually benefits from corruption, and the proceeds from corruption are usually required to maintain loyalty in a rather selective edition of trickle down economics where every traffic cop, tax inspector, local judge and so on has to get his beak wet in small doses every day. Those are the two main reasons why Iran couldn't lock down, that pairing applies in many other locales. In Iran's case, they would have had to shut down their holiest shrines which would offend the religious conservatives who decide every election, and the military who, for reasons already alluded to, own every falafel stand and taxi firm in the city as well as the airline that delivers the tourists to it.

Some places genuinely can't afford to have lockdowns anyway. People on this absurd decadent forum seem to think we are suffering even though nobody presently here can actually attest to having been ill yet so far as I can see. We're wallowing in first world problems, but our central banks can all just let the money printer go brrrrr, and in the meantime none of us will starve. We already have fully restored stocks of toilet paper at my local supermarket, which apparently was everybody's worst fucking problem in London last month, it was touch and go whether civlisation could survive the insult. Meanwhile, if people comply with lockdowns in some parts of the world, they actually die. A recent news report told of another country where another populist political hard man with a death count in the thousands (Narendra Modi) initiated lockdown with his typical lack of warning (4 hours ahead of shutting down all the trains and roads). Countless itenerant workers were forced to try and walk hundreds of miles to get home because they have no way of surviving in the city without daily work, a bunch of them died of heatstroke on the trek. They would have starved had they stayed.

The usual shitty little infantile answer to your question though would revolve around winning elections, or servicing powerful media tycoons. This probably applies to a handful of really shit politicans, but in a medial crisis any competent politico is simply going to very publicly do whatever the best available medical advice states taking into account what is possible with their local limitations along the lines of the above. That offer excludes America, where as you will have noticed, everything is a fucking culture wars issue. The American right and left just look at what the other side says and automatically disagrees, even if it is visibly true, no matter how pathetic they must know it shows them to be. Thus we have had that worthless goblin Walker discussing a global pandemic as nothing but an attempt to relitigate Trump's impeachment, and so on. If we had one of their Bernie Bros to balance him out, that probably would be just as bad. So their shit follows no other logic and America is an exception that proves the rule in almost all cases. They might refuse to deal with the medical problem for any number of totally fucking stupid reasons, apparently Jesus is a popular choice.

[vegetariantaxidermy]

'First world problem'--such a patronising, wanky term, as if only the concerns of those in 'third world' countries matter (and being human, are probably much the same as the rest of us), Just because someone lives in a supposedly 'first world 'country doesn't mean they automatically have enough to pay their bills.
And I haven't seen anyone on here complaining about how difficult all this is for them.
Still, it does seem pretty callous to tell someone who has worked for years to build up a business then be forced to close it for good, to 'suck it up'.

[FlashDangerpants]

'First world problem'--such a patronising, wanky term

If the bitterest crone in the universe wasn't pissed off at me I wouldn't be doing my job properly.

[vegetariantaxidermy]

'First world problem'--such a patronising, wanky term

If the bitterest crone in the universe wasn't pissed off at me I wouldn't be doing my job properly.

More misogynistic hypocrisy from one of our resident PC twats. Hardly unexected

[FlashDangerpants]

'First world problem'--such a patronising, wanky term

If the bitterest crone in the universe wasn't pissed off at me I wouldn't be doing my job properly.

More misogynistic hypocrisy from one of our resident PC twats. Hardly unexected

Shall we start a collection of all the times I have explained the obvious stupidity of you constantly accusing me of not being as PC as you wish I was?

rather than going somewhere else in search of hairy ladies who care about this shit.

How very misogynistic and hypocritical of you (not at all PC-like )

One day you may have to think through the logical implication of all the times you have called my behaviour non-PC

[vegetariantaxidermy]

If the bitterest crone in the universe wasn't pissed off at me I wouldn't be doing my job properly.

More misogynistic hypocrisy from one of our resident PC twats. Hardly unexected

Shall we start a collection of all the times I have explained the obvious stupidity of you constantly accusing me of not being as PC as you wish I was?

How very misogynistic and hypocritical of you (not at all PC-like )

One day you may have to think through the logical implication of all the times you have called my behaviour non-PC

I suppose I will 'have' to take your word for that Irony is lost on this site. Shame. People don't appreciate the beauty of irony enough

[henry quirk]

Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases

Total Confirmed: 1,341,907

Total Deaths: 74,476

Total Recovered: 276,259


World population: approximately 8 billion


Confirmed, Deaths, Recovered are approximates. As I say up-thread,: it's impossible to know how many were, or are infected, but were, or are, asymptomatic.

Equally impossible to know: which nations and locales are deflatin' death numbers (lookin' at you, China) or inflatin' death numbers (lookin' at you, New York).


Regardin' dumbass commentary about my methodology or conclusions: before yer hot lil fingers start peckin' away, mebbe you need to read what I post.

[vegetariantaxidermy]

Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases

Total Confirmed: 1,341,907

Total Deaths: 74,476

Total Recovered: 276,259


World population: approximately 8 billion


Confirmed, Deaths, Recovered are approximates. As I say up-thread,: it's impossible to know how many were, or are infected, but were, or are, asymptomatic.

Equally impossible to know: which nations and locales are deflatin' death numbers (lookin' at you, China) or inflatin' death numbers (lookin' at you, New York).


Regardin' dumbass commentary about my methodology or conclusions: before yer hot lil fingers start peckin' away, mebbe you need to read what I post.

You must realise how silly it is to base mortality rate on the entire population of the planet. You can only do that after the whole planet has been infected and tested. All you can do is base it on, say, deaths per thousand of those who have tested positive.
At the moment the US mortality rate sits at around 3%.

[henry quirk]

You must realise how silly it is to base mortality rate on the entire population of the planet.

I don't give a crap about the mortality rate. I don't bring it up. I focus solely on the raw, approximate numbers of the widest sets possible, for reasons I just stated.


At the moment the US mortality rate sits at around 3%.

Not accurate: New York state is higher, Wyoming is lower. New Orleans is higher, Church Point (where I live, 3 hours west of N.O.) is, as of today, zero (we have no infections, deaths, recoveries).

[vegetariantaxidermy]

Well I suppose when you live in a tiny little backblock where no one leaves and no one goes to (and the mayor is called Spanky) then it's hardly surprising you won't have a problem (nice accent though).
I can't think why it's called the 'UNITED' States of America

[henry quirk]

Well I suppose when you live in a tiny little backblock where no one leaves and no one goes to (and the mayor is called Spanky) then it's hardly surprising you won't have a problem (nice accent though).
I can't think why it's called the 'UNITED' States of America

None of which has diddly to do with the topic(s).

And: we have modern, personal, transportation here in the backblock: we get out plenty.