Wagner moving into Niger (close to WW3)

[Constantine]

The African Union has a deadline that ends on Sunday. Nobody is taking it seriously. They are more broken than the UN. ECOWAS continues building up their coalition of invisible troops.

[Constantine]

Niger special forces are reportedly being staged around the airport and presidential palace. No pics, just reports.

[Constantine]

Nigeria is switching to diplomacy- even though Niger refuses to talk to them. So I take that as endless sanctions.

A Niger Resistance Council for the Republic (CRR) from a former government minister in Niger is aiming to coup the coup.

So I'm leaning towards WW3 averted for now. Close call. We could of had a strip of land from west Africa to Europe into Russia all in a linterlinked Putin war. I'll monitor future developments but short of a ECOWAS or AU war initiative won't report here again on it.

[Constantine]

Update.... ECOWAS is claiming now it will invade (again), and that they know the date it will occur. I'm 90% certain short of bribery or a defection of the guarding unit from the junta, this is going to fail with the president being killed.

[promethean75]

Ah, i know who it is now, Biggs, if you read this. Constantine i mean. U know em too. Not gonna say who or from where becuz he may be excommunicado, but shirley u can tell... what with all the attention he pays to the details of warfare and military foreign relations.

He's aged some now, like a old retired forum Jedi, and some of the edge is lost in his posts therefore, which is why it wasn't incredibly easy to place em at first.

Watch this Biggs.

Hey Constantine, what do u know about Tacitus?

[Constantine]

Super Tucano Aircraft have been sent by Mali and Burkina Faso to Niger. They are propeller driven fighter aircraft. So might have some WW2 era fighter battles.

[promethean75]

I'd caution against using the pratt & whitney canada PT6 platform in nigerian air space on account of the under-head cam intake manifold design that doesn't do well in that dry heat. One of my old contacts saw a small shipment of Hurkus-Cs get returned to Turkey back in 2022 becuz of the same problem. Not a good idea, those planes.

[Constantine]

Apparently there is a counter coup going on in Nigeria from a French source I trust, but he is uncertain what is happening.

[henry quirk]

https://www.rt.com/africa/581482-ecowas ... ntion-day/

News or propaganda?
that's a rhetorical question

[Constantine]

https://www.rt.com/africa/581482-ecowas ... ntion-day/

News or propaganda?
that's a rhetorical question

If it RT usually both, but in this case news. RT is about as reliable as Pravda these days.

And as a edit.... the supposed counter coup turned into a dance-dance revolution demonstration infront of a Niger national guard installation. Went nowhere, and three analysts I follow are confused by it.

[Gary Childress]

https://www.rt.com/africa/581482-ecowas ... ntion-day/

News or propaganda?
that's a rhetorical question

At least Biden didn't start the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. As Vice President and now President, at least we got out of those two fiascos under his watch, which Bush and his "conservative" administration got us into. I'm glad Putin has you hook line and sinker on his team, comrade.

[Constantine]

Both Trump and Biden intended to move out of Afghanistan, but Trump's was a orderly withdrawl.... the pentagon kept delaying the drawdown past his presidency ended and then Biden canceled it, then suddenly jumo started it again.

Alot more people died in the pullout than recorded. I know a etired Canadian special forces operator (Jewish) who mortgaged all the properties he collected just to get jews out of Afghanistan.... and he ended up chartering multiple buses to get them out. Alot died. I'm still talking to ethnic Tajiks in Afghanistan being killed or evicted from their villages for Punjabi. When Biden switched to leaving again.... alot of Americans were in Afghanistan (including a school field trip from California with no state department warning).

One of the responsibilities of the military is rear guard actions.... doing a coordinated phased pullout. This requires a high degree of intelligence, planning from higher command, and immaculate coordination by trained and well armed personal, with plenty of signaling and communications and incentives to those dependent on your government to move in a synchronized fashion out. Biden utterly fucked this up. Babies tossed over barbed wire fences, people falling off of planes, suicide bombers attacking the compound and taliban shooting people in the streets that US military contractors were trying to rescue. It ended up with thousands of US citizens abandoned, and this was the primary signal both Russia with Ukraine and China with Taiwan needed to read Biden.... Biden came off as a incredibly weak and demented old man who would readily abandon his own people. So Russia tried months later to invade Kyiv. Your anger over cluster munitions.... it comes from putin thinking consequences existed in gambling over invading Ukraine.

I don't think Trump would of prevented Putin from expanding the war- but Trump was supporting Ukraine in ways Biden wasn't when Biden first came in, and knowing his strategic track record in Iraq and Syria would of forced more dialog in combination with heavier weapon access (such as long range missiles and fighter jets) if Putin wouldn't come to the table and talk peace. But Trump absolutely would of insisted on the talks. If Trump was in Crimea to Donbas would now officially be Russian and Ukraine would be dotting the i's on their NATO membership. There would of been no wild stab for Kyiv as Trump was too impulsive and easy to piss off with such a blatant and insulting move. Trump was more for diplomacy and I agree he feels rightly wronged having suffered a coup and seen a hard left (former Neo-Conservative) faction burn every bridge for peace in Ukraine. Biden's foreign policy is more or less no negotiations, have Ukraine fight a attritional war on the ground with no air support against a massive tank army. Its pretty fucked up. Advantages exist.... we won't have to worry about cold war era Soviet tank blitz across Europe..... as Ukraine is wiping russia's tank corps out with hand me downs, but the fighting in terms of military casualties (not counting civilians or partisans) is 500,000 dead or injured for both Ukraine (200,000) and Russia (300,000). That's the cost of Biden. He is a very expensive proposition. This isn't counting his Tigray support in Ethiopia (600,000 dead). Biden has no apparent foreign policy that makes any sense. Even from this forum's fantasy DARPA is the bad guy, if this war was aimed at making the military industrial complex richer..... Biden would send planes and tanks upgraded with the highest specs to test out. He is sending mostly old stock stuff and items like cluster munitions which we keep in stock but don't even make anymore. The anti tank missiles we know work and have to retire after a few decades of none use anyway, so no real loss or cost there in donating current stocks. Outside of auto drone or anti missile tech (which we absolutely need to test out to make sure they are on par to our primary threat, Russia and China (similar tech) we aren't really developing much via DARPA. This war has been a bust outside of a few niche areas. The attritional war killed a half of million, expect another half million dead with Biden and Son snorting crack not giving a fuck. He mostly just vacations.

[henry quirk]

https://www.rt.com/africa/581482-ecowas ... ntion-day/

News or propaganda?
that's a rhetorical question

At least Biden didn't start the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. As Vice President and now President, at least we got out of those two fiascos under his watch, which Bush and his "conservative" administration got us into. I'm glad Putin has you hook line and sinker on his team, comrade.

[Gary Childress]

Both Trump and Biden intended to move out of Afghanistan, but Trump's was a orderly withdrawl.... the pentagon kept delaying the drawdown past his presidency ended and then Biden canceled it, then suddenly jumo started it again.

Alot more people died in the pullout than recorded. I know a etired Canadian special forces operator (Jewish) who mortgaged all the properties he collected just to get jews out of Afghanistan.... and he ended up chartering multiple buses to get them out. Alot died. I'm still talking to ethnic Tajiks in Afghanistan being killed or evicted from their villages for Punjabi. When Biden switched to leaving again.... alot of Americans were in Afghanistan (including a school field trip from California with no state department warning).

One of the responsibilities of the military is rear guard actions.... doing a coordinated phased pullout. This requires a high degree of intelligence, planning from higher command, and immaculate coordination by trained and well armed personal, with plenty of signaling and communications and incentives to those dependent on your government to move in a synchronized fashion out. Biden utterly fucked this up. Babies tossed over barbed wire fences, people falling off of planes, suicide bombers attacking the compound and taliban shooting people in the streets that US military contractors were trying to rescue. It ended up with thousands of US citizens abandoned, and this was the primary signal both Russia with Ukraine and China with Taiwan needed to read Biden.... Biden came off as a incredibly weak and demented old man who would readily abandon his own people. So Russia tried months later to invade Kyiv. Your anger over cluster munitions.... it comes from putin thinking consequences existed in gambling over invading Ukraine.

I don't think Trump would of prevented Putin from expanding the war- but Trump was supporting Ukraine in ways Biden wasn't when Biden first came in, and knowing his strategic track record in Iraq and Syria would of forced more dialog in combination with heavier weapon access (such as long range missiles and fighter jets) if Putin wouldn't come to the table and talk peace. But Trump absolutely would of insisted on the talks. If Trump was in Crimea to Donbas would now officially be Russian and Ukraine would be dotting the i's on their NATO membership. There would of been no wild stab for Kyiv as Trump was too impulsive and easy to piss off with such a blatant and insulting move. Trump was more for diplomacy and I agree he feels rightly wronged having suffered a coup and seen a hard left (former Neo-Conservative) faction burn every bridge for peace in Ukraine. Biden's foreign policy is more or less no negotiations, have Ukraine fight a attritional war on the ground with no air support against a massive tank army. Its pretty fucked up. Advantages exist.... we won't have to worry about cold war era Soviet tank blitz across Europe..... as Ukraine is wiping russia's tank corps out with hand me downs, but the fighting in terms of military casualties (not counting civilians or partisans) is 500,000 dead or injured for both Ukraine (200,000) and Russia (300,000). That's the cost of Biden. He is a very expensive proposition. This isn't counting his Tigray support in Ethiopia (600,000 dead). Biden has no apparent foreign policy that makes any sense. Even from this forum's fantasy DARPA is the bad guy, if this war was aimed at making the military industrial complex richer..... Biden would send planes and tanks upgraded with the highest specs to test out. He is sending mostly old stock stuff and items like cluster munitions which we keep in stock but don't even make anymore. The anti tank missiles we know work and have to retire after a few decades of none use anyway, so no real loss or cost there in donating current stocks. Outside of auto drone or anti missile tech (which we absolutely need to test out to make sure they are on par to our primary threat, Russia and China (similar tech) we aren't really developing much via DARPA. This war has been a bust outside of a few niche areas. The attritional war killed a half of million, expect another half million dead with Biden and Son snorting crack not giving a fuck. He mostly just vacations.

So am I reading you correctly that Biden is not out to boost the profits of the Military Industrial Complex? Is that correct?

If so then, GOOD!!!!!!!!!!!!!

What could Biden have done differently with the military withdrawal in Afghanistan? The bottom line is that people died in the sudden withdrawal. People would have died had there been a slow withdrawal (and the MIC would have loved the additional profits from it). Either way, people die. Afghanistan was a lost cause period. There is no "saving face" when a country marches off to illegally invade another country. Let that be a lesson to future assholes who want us to invade countries in the name of "self-defense" that are thousands of miles away that never set a boot across our border. We reaped what our leaders sowed for us when they invaded. Take our lumps with the rest of us and stop being a fucking sociopathic "realpolitik" blockhead. This is our payback. EAT IT AND LEARN. Paying for wrongs is not going to be fun. Grow a spine and endure it with every other of us.

[Constantine]

Both Trump and Biden intended to move out of Afghanistan, but Trump's was a orderly withdrawl.... the pentagon kept delaying the drawdown past his presidency ended and then Biden canceled it, then suddenly jumo started it again.

Alot more people died in the pullout than recorded. I know a etired Canadian special forces operator (Jewish) who mortgaged all the properties he collected just to get jews out of Afghanistan.... and he ended up chartering multiple buses to get them out. Alot died. I'm still talking to ethnic Tajiks in Afghanistan being killed or evicted from their villages for Punjabi. When Biden switched to leaving again.... alot of Americans were in Afghanistan (including a school field trip from California with no state department warning).

One of the responsibilities of the military is rear guard actions.... doing a coordinated phased pullout. This requires a high degree of intelligence, planning from higher command, and immaculate coordination by trained and well armed personal, with plenty of signaling and communications and incentives to those dependent on your government to move in a synchronized fashion out. Biden utterly fucked this up. Babies tossed over barbed wire fences, people falling off of planes, suicide bombers attacking the compound and taliban shooting people in the streets that US military contractors were trying to rescue. It ended up with thousands of US citizens abandoned, and this was the primary signal both Russia with Ukraine and China with Taiwan needed to read Biden.... Biden came off as a incredibly weak and demented old man who would readily abandon his own people. So Russia tried months later to invade Kyiv. Your anger over cluster munitions.... it comes from putin thinking consequences existed in gambling over invading Ukraine.

I don't think Trump would of prevented Putin from expanding the war- but Trump was supporting Ukraine in ways Biden wasn't when Biden first came in, and knowing his strategic track record in Iraq and Syria would of forced more dialog in combination with heavier weapon access (such as long range missiles and fighter jets) if Putin wouldn't come to the table and talk peace. But Trump absolutely would of insisted on the talks. If Trump was in Crimea to Donbas would now officially be Russian and Ukraine would be dotting the i's on their NATO membership. There would of been no wild stab for Kyiv as Trump was too impulsive and easy to piss off with such a blatant and insulting move. Trump was more for diplomacy and I agree he feels rightly wronged having suffered a coup and seen a hard left (former Neo-Conservative) faction burn every bridge for peace in Ukraine. Biden's foreign policy is more or less no negotiations, have Ukraine fight a attritional war on the ground with no air support against a massive tank army. Its pretty fucked up. Advantages exist.... we won't have to worry about cold war era Soviet tank blitz across Europe..... as Ukraine is wiping russia's tank corps out with hand me downs, but the fighting in terms of military casualties (not counting civilians or partisans) is 500,000 dead or injured for both Ukraine (200,000) and Russia (300,000). That's the cost of Biden. He is a very expensive proposition. This isn't counting his Tigray support in Ethiopia (600,000 dead). Biden has no apparent foreign policy that makes any sense. Even from this forum's fantasy DARPA is the bad guy, if this war was aimed at making the military industrial complex richer..... Biden would send planes and tanks upgraded with the highest specs to test out. He is sending mostly old stock stuff and items like cluster munitions which we keep in stock but don't even make anymore. The anti tank missiles we know work and have to retire after a few decades of none use anyway, so no real loss or cost there in donating current stocks. Outside of auto drone or anti missile tech (which we absolutely need to test out to make sure they are on par to our primary threat, Russia and China (similar tech) we aren't really developing much via DARPA. This war has been a bust outside of a few niche areas. The attritional war killed a half of million, expect another half million dead with Biden and Son snorting crack not giving a fuck. He mostly just vacations.

So am I reading you correctly that Biden is not out to boost the profits of the Military Industrial Complex? Is that correct?

If so then, GOOD!!!!!!!!!!!!!

What could Biden have done differently with the military withdrawal in Afghanistan? The bottom line is that people died in the sudden withdrawal. People would have died had there been a slow withdrawal (and the MIC would have loved the additional profits from it). Either way, people die. Afghanistan was a lost cause period. There is no "saving face" when a country marches off to illegally invade another country. Let that be a lesson to future assholes who want us to invade countries in the name of "self-defense" that are thousands of miles away that never set a boot across our border. We reaped what our leaders sowed for us when they invaded. Take our lumps with the rest of us and stop being a fucking sociopathic "realpolitik" blockhead. This is our payback. EAT IT AND LEARN. Paying for wrongs is not going to be fun. Grow a spine and endure it with every other of us.

Biden isn't making DARPA much for the Ukraine War, no. But DARPA funding isn't contingent on the Ukraine War. It did benefit drone tech and anti-drone tech, but the land based tactical synthesis the Russians use.... the US already countered completely by the 1980s. Now sea, missile and air (especially hypersonic missles) and laser threats.... that's swallowing alot of money.

I don't really track cyber warfare stuff. I'm sure money is being blown on that too.

Russia war is more a Neo-Con thing. You gotta go back to Hillary Clinton getting a hard on for war with them. But the Neo-Cons were mostly ideologues and not strategists first. Way to think it.... someone like John Bolton thinks the US military should be used everywhere in the same sense Alexander Hamilton thought US debt should be serviced from anyone. That is both a ideology and a strategy, but it doesn't necessarily emphasize a strategist strategizinf, weighing pros and cons and having the option to opt out. Example, I hated the Libyan War, Neo-Cons loved it. Very easy war to dodge. Or at least do it with very quick results where qaddafi lived and some MPs from Europe standing behind barbwire in Eastern Libya saying their peace keepers as a very thankful qaddafi runs his mouth telling them they are imperialists and go home (then get very upset if they try to go home, as the result would be civil war). Alot of wars can be dodged. A Neo-Con doesn't want to dodge them. They have a vague notion however that the military industrial complex does benefit "America" on a economic level. It isn't anymore sophisticated than your understanding until their degrees (sometimes) land them in the DOD as a civilian. Then they act like Michael from The Office.

My school is more precision military spending well in advance for a war to make troops highly effective for a very quick flexible war, and find a end to that conflict, with extreme emphasis on diplomacy.... so you don't need to keep fighting. If the military can intimidate or threaten without shots, that's good. Goals should be stated and avoid mission creep. Only time that's allowable is if you are supporting a weak ally when they are on a defensive. You don't abandon such a ally.

So I'm all for the military spending and deep study of the enemy. Biden doesn't strike me as this. But my spending is doctrinal. It's to produce a vicious military that's cutting edge but flexible. Flexible to end a war fast (days, weeks, hours), not stay stuck in forever wars. Biden is a forever war sort of guy, like I said, 500,000 dead, and that's 400,000 dead as a result of no airpower. This war could of been ended by now in Ukraine. Instead we will be discussing this war next year and I doubt you'll get it then that Biden is the primary culprit for the staggering death toll. US military doctrine aims not merely at low casualties for US forces but also enemy forces. American just war theory aims at little infrastructure damage to the enemy and nation rebuilding. Its not a 500,000 dead sort of doctrinal allowance you can fudge. Biden doesn't give a fuck. Allowing planes 16 months ago would of avoided alot of these casualties. But the negative is a quick war of maneuver (instead of attrition) would of quickly broken the back of the Russian Army in the war theater, and none of its military tanks in storage would be placed in the field to be destroyed. Instead Russia would just retreat back to Russia and use those mothballed tanks to rebuild a still massive tankforce. So in that sense the war of attrition is saving NATO (but not Ukraine) money and lives saved in the long run. There is a sick logic to the Neo-Con thinking. I can see it, but it is a poor consolation.