Sick until proven healthy

For philosophical reflections on the COVID-19 pandemic. How can philosophy help us to understand it, to combat it and to survive it?

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Ansiktsburk
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Re: Sick until proven healthy

Post by Ansiktsburk »

Arising_uk wrote: Tue May 12, 2020 1:08 pm
Ansiktsburk wrote:... We at the right want to take responsibility and avoid the disease. ...
You can't avoid this disease this will only happen if there is a vaccine. All you can do is to try and delay the spread so your health services dont collapse.
Play with words... act as if there will be a vaccine around or some medicine to soften the sickness. Delay it might result in being, good enough. Just as long as one take the responsibility not to be infected or infect.
Gloominary
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Re: Sick until proven healthy

Post by Gloominary »

Gary Childress wrote: Wed May 13, 2020 4:08 am
Gloominary wrote: Tue May 12, 2020 11:52 pm
[see above as the forum isn't allowing me to quote all of it for some reason]
From the article regarding the hunger crisis:
While the system of food distribution and retailing in rich nations is organized and automated, he said, systems in developing countries are “labor intensive,” making “these supply chains much more vulnerable to Covid-19 and social distancing regulations.”
If a country is in a situation where they can't afford to lockdown due to greater risk of hunger and food shortages, then, by all means, they should probably not lockdown--just run the risk of the outbreak and hope the outcome isn't too bad. As far as domestic violence, should policies be shaped around a few people who can't behave themselves? We can't take precautions because Archie will beat his wife more?
You're minimizing the seriousness of domestic violence.

I'm not telling us what we can and can't do.
I'm saying we (as in we the people, not just the technocrats) should weigh all the costs against the benefit (assuming there is one) of lockdown, before we lockdown and during lockdown if we decide to go through with it.
If the costs outweigh the benefit then it should be lifted ASAP.
And I'm sure big businesses with deep pockets or that are "too big to fail" will fare better than small ones. That generally happens in just about every scenario, even on good days. There doesn't seem to be a whole lot anyone can do about it short of doing away with private ownership of major industries so that the few aren't benefitting off of it more so than the rest.
Yea but lockdown is going to accelerate this process of the big fish cannibalizing the small.
When it comes to the labor market, despite the best efforts of policy makers to help small businesses, we're likely to see employment shift to larger companies, accelerating a trend that's been in place for several years.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... e-pandemic

Several years?
Try several decades if not over a century.

Our democracy is corrupt, big business has unfair advantages and that must be changed.
These unfair advantages permit them to accumulate enormous sums of wealth they then use to buy up academia, government and MSM to garner even more unfair advantages, and then you have people running around, being taught to have blind faith in the institutions the financiers and megacorporations have long since bought up and subverted.
Last edited by Gloominary on Wed May 13, 2020 5:46 pm, edited 5 times in total.
Ansiktsburk
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Re: Sick until proven healthy

Post by Ansiktsburk »

Gloominary wrote: Tue May 12, 2020 4:04 pm
Ansiktsburk wrote: Tue May 12, 2020 5:50 am
Gloominary wrote: Mon May 11, 2020 4:30 pm The left or establishment has created a new class of people, the sick.
The sick have less rights than the healthy.
They can be forcibly quarantined and treated.
And assuming everyone is sick until proven healthy, is every bit as insane as assuming everyone is guilty until proven innocent.
The potentially sick can be forcibly tested (and vaccinated).
And how they define the sick is absurd, since this virus, like most viruses, is ubiquitous and has little or nothing to do with health.
They've assumed this virus is lethal until proven nonlethal.
They refuse to examine the data proving it nonlethal.
This is not democracy, our fundamental rights and freedoms have been suspended, this is totalitarianism and we must resist.
Funny, in my Scandinavian country its the leftists that have skipped quarantine and killed per capita much more people than in the US. We at the right want to take responsibility and avoid the disease. Completely the opposite from your country.

What’s left and what’s right?
Hardly anyone has died with Covid in unlocked Sweden.
What like 0.03%?
It's a fucking a joke.
On top of that almost all of them were old with terminal illnesses who would've died anyway.
And on top of that, a lot of them weren't actually tested for the virus, they were believed to have Covid.

It is interesting tho how in Sweden it's the left that's taking a more laissez faire approach to this virus than the right.
We have dead by the thousands, our neighbours by the hundreds. And its not only people that are about to die, that dies. And even if you don’t die, the one who gets it full out will be very, very ill for a long time, and that includes younger persons. This shit is well worth avoiding. If there is to be a flock immunity, I dont wanna be a part of that flock.
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henry quirk
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Re: Sick until proven healthy

Post by henry quirk »

I did.

Based on your comments: nope.


The vast majority of your police are ill-trained in the use of firearms in a combat situation.

You know this how?


Those who have such training will not have squads trained to the same standard so will not be effective.

You know this how?


This idea that your guns keep you free from an oppressive government is a myth propagated via the myth about the success of your revolution being the result of citizen militias.

You know this how?


It's why Washingtin heartily disliked the militias and tried to hobble them.

You know this how?


All they are really useful for is oppressing the civilian population.

You know this how?


If this virus was an airborne Ebola style one there's be no discussion. It's because it's not that there are issues about the responses.

Last time Ebola slithered across the world: the world didn't shut down.

-----
henry quirk wrote: Wed May 13, 2020 5:36 pm According to data from the best-studied countries and regions, the lethality of Covid19 is on average about 0.2%, which is in the range of a severe influenza (flu) and about twenty times lower than originally assumed by the WHO.

Even in the global “hotspots”, the risk of death for the general population of school and working age is typically in the range of a daily car ride to work. The risk was initially overestimated because many people with only mild or no symptoms were not taken into account.

Up to 80% of all test-positive persons remain symptom-free. Even among 70-79 year olds, about 60% remain symptom-free. Over 95% of all persons show mild symptoms at most.

Up to one third of all persons already have a certain background immunity to Covid19 due to contact with previous coronaviruses (i.e. common cold viruses).

The median or average age of the deceased in most countries (including Italy) is over 80 years and only about 1% of the deceased had no serious preconditions. The age and risk profile of deaths thus essentially corresponds to normal mortality.

In most Western countries, 50 to 70% of all extra deaths occurred in nursing homes, which do not benefit from a general lockdown. Moreover, in many cases it is not clear whether these people really died from Covid19 or from extreme stress, fear and loneliness.

Up to 50% of all additional deaths may have been caused not by Covid19, but by the effects of the lockdown, panic and fear. For example, the treatment of heart attacks and strokes decreased by up to 60% because many patients no longer dared to go to hospital.

Even in so-called “Covid19 deaths” it is often not clear whether they died from or with coronavirus (i.e. from underlying diseases) or if they were counted as “presumed cases” and not tested at all. However, official figures usually do not reflect this distinction.

Many media reports of young and healthy people dying from Covid19 turned out to be false: many of these young people either did not die from Covid19, they had already been seriously ill (e.g. from undiagnosed leukaemia), or they were in fact 109 instead of 9 years old.

The normal overall mortality per day is about 8000 people in the US, about 2600 in Germany and about 1800 in Italy. Influenza mortality per season is up to 80,000 in the US and up to 25,000 in Germany and Italy. In several countries Covid19 deaths remained below strong flu seasons.

Regional increases in mortality may be influenced by additional risk factors such as high levels of air pollution and microbial contamination, as well as a collapse in the care for the elderly and sick due to infections, mass panic and lockdown. Special regulations for dealing with the deceased sometimes led to additional bottlenecks in funeral or cremation services.

In countries such as Italy and Spain, and to some extent the UK and the US, hospital overloads due to strong flu waves are not unusual. In addition, up to 15% of doctors and health workers were put into quarantine, even if they developed no symptoms.

The often shown exponential curves of “corona cases” are misleading, as the number of tests also increased exponentially. In most countries, the ratio of positive tests to tests overall (i.e. the positive rate) remained constant at 5% to 25% or increased only slightly. In many countries, the peak of the spread was already reached well before the lockdown.

Countries without curfews and contact bans, such as Japan, South Korea or Sweden, have not experienced a more negative course of events than other countries. Sweden was even praised by the WHO and now benefits from higher immunity compared to lockdown countries.

The fear of a shortage of ventilators was unjustified. According to lung specialists, the invasive ventilation (intubation) of Covid19 patients, which is partly done out of fear of spreading the virus, is in fact often counterproductive and damaging to the lungs.

Contrary to original assumptions, various studies have shown that there is no evidence of the virus spreading through aerosols (i.e. particles floating in the air) or through smear infections (e.g. on door handles, smartphones or at the hairdresser).

There is also no scientific evidence for the effectiveness of face masks in healthy or asymptomatic individuals. On the contrary, experts warn that such masks interfere with normal breathing and may become “germ carriers”. Leading doctors called them a “media hype” and “ridiculous”.

Many clinics in Europe and the US remained strongly underutilized or almost empty during the Covid19 peak and in some cases had to send staff home. Numerous operations and therapies were cancelled, including some organ transplants and cancer screenings.

Several media were caught trying to dramatize the situation in hospitals, sometimes even with manipulative images and videos. In general, the unprofessional reporting of many media maximized fear and panic in the population.

The virus test kits used internationally are prone to errors and can produce false positive and false negative results. Moreover, the official virus test was not clinically validated due to time pressure and may sometimes react to other coronaviruses.

Numerous internationally renowned experts in the fields of virology, immunology and epidemiology consider the measures taken to be counterproductive and recommend rapid natural immunisation of the general population and protection of risk groups. The risks for children are virtually zero and closing schools was never medically warranted.

Several medical experts described vaccines against coronaviruses as unnecessary or even dangerous. Indeed, the vaccine against the so-called swine flu of 2009, for example, led to sometimes severe neurological damage and lawsuits in the millions.

The number of people suffering from unemployment, psychological problems and domestic violence as a result of the measures has skyrocketed worldwide. Several experts believe that the measures may claim more lives than the virus itself. According to the UN millions of people around the world may fall into absolute poverty and famine.

NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden warned that the “corona crisis” will be used for the massive and permanent expansion of global surveillance. The renowned virologist Pablo Goldschmidt spoke of a “global media terror” and “totalitarian measures“. Leading British virologist professor John Oxford spoke of a “media epidemic”.

More than 500 scientists have warned against an “unprecedented surveillance of society” through problematic apps for “contact tracing”. In some countries, such “contact tracing” is already carried out directly by the secret service. In several parts of the world, the population is already being monitored by drones and facing serious police overreach.


For maximum funny, go to...

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/
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henry quirk
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Re: Sick until proven healthy

Post by henry quirk »

Ansiktsburk wrote: Wed May 13, 2020 5:19 pm
Gloominary wrote: Tue May 12, 2020 4:04 pm
Ansiktsburk wrote: Tue May 12, 2020 5:50 am
Funny, in my Scandinavian country its the leftists that have skipped quarantine and killed per capita much more people than in the US. We at the right want to take responsibility and avoid the disease. Completely the opposite from your country.

What’s left and what’s right?
Hardly anyone has died with Covid in unlocked Sweden.
What like 0.03%?
It's a fucking a joke.
On top of that almost all of them were old with terminal illnesses who would've died anyway.
And on top of that, a lot of them weren't actually tested for the virus, they were believed to have Covid.

It is interesting tho how in Sweden it's the left that's taking a more laissez faire approach to this virus than the right.
We have dead by the thousands, our neighbours by the hundreds. And its not only people that are about to die, that dies. And even if you don’t die, the one who gets it full out will be very, very ill for a long time, and that includes younger persons. This shit is well worth avoiding. If there is to be a flock immunity, I dont wanna be a part of that flock.
Here's what we got...

20,946,445 dead, all over the world, since 1-1-20, from everything (minus beer virus).

291,519 dead, all over the world, since 1-1-20, from, we're told, beer virus.

Nearly 21 million deaths and we keep rockin' & rollin'.

Nearly 300,000, we shut down the juke, close up the bar, go home and go to bed, cuz, baby, the party is over (actually we shut the party down well before the 300,000 mark).

bamboozled: us
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Arising_uk
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Re: Sick until proven healthy

Post by Arising_uk »

Ansiktsburk wrote: Play with words... act as if there will be a vaccine around or some medicine to soften the sickness. Delay it might result in being, good enough. Just as long as one take the responsibility not to be infected or infect.
Not really sure what you are saying but over here the reason for the lockdown was clear, our health service would not have been able to cope with the amount of patients if the virus was given free rein, we're just trying to flatten the infection curve into something we can cope with.
Gloominary
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Re: Sick until proven healthy

Post by Gloominary »

Gloominary wrote: Wed May 13, 2020 5:15 pm
Gary Childress wrote: Wed May 13, 2020 4:08 am
Gloominary wrote: Tue May 12, 2020 11:52 pm
[see above as the forum isn't allowing me to quote all of it for some reason]
From the article regarding the hunger crisis:
While the system of food distribution and retailing in rich nations is organized and automated, he said, systems in developing countries are “labor intensive,” making “these supply chains much more vulnerable to Covid-19 and social distancing regulations.”
If a country is in a situation where they can't afford to lockdown due to greater risk of hunger and food shortages, then, by all means, they should probably not lockdown--just run the risk of the outbreak and hope the outcome isn't too bad. As far as domestic violence, should policies be shaped around a few people who can't behave themselves? We can't take precautions because Archie will beat his wife more?
You're minimizing the seriousness of domestic violence.

I'm not telling us what we can and can't do.
I'm saying we (as in we the people, not just the technocrats) should weigh all the costs against the benefit (assuming there is one) of lockdown, before we lockdown and during lockdown if we decide to go through with it.
If the costs outweigh the benefit then it should be lifted ASAP.
And I'm sure big businesses with deep pockets or that are "too big to fail" will fare better than small ones. That generally happens in just about every scenario, even on good days. There doesn't seem to be a whole lot anyone can do about it short of doing away with private ownership of major industries so that the few aren't benefitting off of it more so than the rest.
Yea but lockdown is going to accelerate this process of the big fish cannibalizing the small.
When it comes to the labor market, despite the best efforts of policy makers to help small businesses, we're likely to see employment shift to larger companies, accelerating a trend that's been in place for several years.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... e-pandemic

Several years?
Try several decades if not over a century.

Our democracy is corrupt, big business has unfair advantages and that must be changed.
These unfair advantages permit them to accumulate enormous sums of wealth they then use to buy up academia, government and MSM to garner even more unfair advantages, and then you have people running around, being taught to have blind faith in the institutions the financiers and megacorporations have long since bought up and subverted.
And we're not going to change it by trusting the same political parties shilling for the same financiers and megacorps.
We have to start abandoning the establishment in droves, support 3rd parties, independents and if that doesn't work, much more extreme measures will be necessary.
Our continued impoverishment and subjugation will not correct itself without massive grassroots reformations, or revolutions, it'll only intensify.
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Arising_uk
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Re: Sick until proven healthy

Post by Arising_uk »

henry quirk wrote: Wed May 13, 2020 5:46 pm I did.

Based on your comments: nope.
Point out what I missed?
The vast majority of your police are ill-trained in the use of firearms in a combat situation.

You know this how?
Because your police force does not train the bulk of your gun-carrying officers in combat training, its why you have SWAT squads.
Those who have such training will not have squads trained to the same standard so will not be effective.

You know this how?
Because unless your ex-whatevers group together they will have squad members not trained to the same degree whereas the military have all their squads trained to that degree and if they do group together then the other militias will be even less effective.
This idea that your guns keep you free from an oppressive government is a myth propagated via the myth about the success of your revolution being the result of citizen militias.

You know this how?
Well this is more my opinion and is based upon reading history and listening to the Yank and what they say about their revolution which largely seems to ignore the French, Spanish and Dutch support and that the effective combatants were the ex-redcoats and ex-military from other nations who had settled in the US.
It's why Washington heartily disliked the militias and tried to hobble them.

You know this how?
Because he wrote a letter about it and was the reason why he wanted 'well-regulated' militias and not yahoos with guns.
All they are really useful for is oppressing the civilian population.

You know this how?
I look around the world at unregulated militias and read history.
If this virus was an airborne Ebola style one there's be no discussion. It's because it's not that there are issues about the responses.

Last time Ebola slithered across the world: the world didn't shut down.
It didn't slither across the world because it is not as infectious as covid19 and that the WHO and the rest of the medical world put massive effort into treating and containing it to the respective countries.

Didn't really bother with the rest as until its all over the figures are just estimates and by and large your comparisons are pointless, although I will say that over here we think we will be looking at about fifty thousand deaths above the norm for the year.
I will agree that many autocrats and dictators are taking the opportunity to re-track on any nascent democracy that was appearing in their countries but think all these fears about 'global' this and that have got the wrong end of the stick, if anything it's going to be the opposite and a return to the parochial inward-looking nation states. How that pans out with respect to each nation will depend I guess upon the strength of the democracies and given you've said the the US isn't one then maybe your fears and real and your guns will save you but more likely your state system will with some states going one way and others another, not that I give a toss as I'm more concerned with the mess my nation is going to be in given we are very likely to be hard brexiting just when global trade is becoming a dirty word and localization may well be on the up.
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henry quirk
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Re: Sick until proven healthy

Post by henry quirk »

Because your police force does not train the bulk of your gun-carrying officers in combat training, its why you have SWAT squads.

You know this how?


Because unless your ex-whatevers group together they will have squad members not trained to the same degree whereas the military have all their squads trained to that degree and if they do group together then the other militias will be even less effective.

You know this how?


Well this is more my opinion...

Which I disagree with.


Because he wrote a letter about it and was the reason why he wanted 'well-regulated' militias and not yahoos with guns.

I'll give you this one.


I look around the world at unregulated militias and read history.

Another opinion, then.


...the WHO and the rest of the medical world put massive effort into treating and containing it to the respective countries.

Yep, a targeted response. Too bad we can't have that now (we could, we should, but -- at the moment -- we don't).


Didn't really bother with the rest as until its all over the figures are just estimates and by and large your comparisons are pointless

Which figures? Which comparisons?


you've said the the US isn't one

A democracy? Hell no, and thank Crom! 'Murica is a constitutional republic: not the minarchy I crave but a damned sight better than a stinkin' democracy (mob rule in Sunday-go-to-meetin' clothes).


maybe your fears (are) real and your guns will save you but more likely your state system will

Ballot box, jury box, cartridge box.
Gloominary
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Re: Sick until proven healthy

Post by Gloominary »

Arising_uk wrote: Wed May 13, 2020 9:59 am
Gloominaru wrote: Trump reluctantly went along with some of the left's proposals, while rejecting others.
It's primarily the left that's pushing for this shit.
Look at populist president Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil, he completely rejected their bullshit.
The response will vary by country and Brazil can afford to I guess as their over 60s are what 9% of the total whereas the states have 16 odd percent. I guess it boils down to how well ones health services could cope. Over here it was clear that allowing the virus to have free rein would have collapsed ours. Unless a vaccine is discovered there will in the long run be as many dying as there would have under a free rein response. The whole point was to slow the curve so our health service would cope. That and that no government would having to bury a few million bodies all at once.
The vast majority of hospitals around the world aren't overwhelmed, including in places like Sweden, South Korea and Japan, which didn't lockdown.

From Henry Quirk's link:
Countries without curfews and contact bans, such as Japan, South Korea or Sweden, have not experienced a more negative course of events than other countries. Sweden was even praised by the WHO and now benefits from higher immunity compared to lockdown countries.
The fear of a shortage of ventilators was unjustified. According to lung specialists, the invasive ventilation (intubation) of Covid19 patients, which is partly done out of fear of spreading the virus, is in fact often counterproductive and damaging to the lungs.
Many clinics in Europe and the US remained strongly underutilized or almost empty during the Covid19 peak and in some cases had to send staff home. Numerous operations and therapies were cancelled, including some organ transplants and cancer screenings.
Several media were caught trying to dramatize the situation in hospitals, sometimes even with manipulative images and videos. In general, the unprofessional reporting of many media maximized fear and panic in the population.
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

Also, consider this:
150,000 Brits will die an 'avoidable death' during coronavirus pandemic through depression, domestic violence and suicides.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... cides.html

And these:
Big Business Has All the Advantages in the Pandemic
Even now, some of them are hiring and expanding while small companies are getting crushed.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... e-pandemic
A total of 81% of the global workforce of 3.3 billion people have had their workplace fully or partly closed.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52199888
New Zealand domestic violence services to get $200m as lockdown takes toll.
Nation has one of the highest rates of sexual and domestic violence in the developed world and rates have risen during coronavirus.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... takes-toll
Pandemic lockdown increases child abuse risk.
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05- ... abuse.html
It's not just civil liberties.
Many other charter rights have been violated in Covid19 pandemic.
https://nationalpost.com/news/its-not-j ... 9-pandemic
Denmark rushes through emergency coronavirus law.
Denmark's parliament on Thursday night unanimously passed an emergency coronavirus law which gives health authorities powers to force testing, treatment and quarantine with the backing of the police.
As well as enforcing quarantine measures, the law also allows the authorities to force people to be vaccinated, even though there is currently no vaccination for the virus.
https://www.thelocal.dk/20200313/denmar ... avirus-law
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henry quirk
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lost causes

Post by henry quirk »

Gloominary wrote: Wed May 13, 2020 9:48 pm
Arising_uk wrote: Wed May 13, 2020 9:59 am
Gloominaru wrote: Trump reluctantly went along with some of the left's proposals, while rejecting others.
It's primarily the left that's pushing for this shit.
Look at populist president Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil, he completely rejected their bullshit.
The response will vary by country and Brazil can afford to I guess as their over 60s are what 9% of the total whereas the states have 16 odd percent. I guess it boils down to how well ones health services could cope. Over here it was clear that allowing the virus to have free rein would have collapsed ours. Unless a vaccine is discovered there will in the long run be as many dying as there would have under a free rein response. The whole point was to slow the curve so our health service would cope. That and that no government would having to bury a few million bodies all at once.
The vast majority of hospitals around the world aren't overwhelmed, including in places like Sweden, South Korea and Japan, which didn't lockdown.

From Henry Quirk's link:
Countries without curfews and contact bans, such as Japan, South Korea or Sweden, have not experienced a more negative course of events than other countries. Sweden was even praised by the WHO and now benefits from higher immunity compared to lockdown countries.
The fear of a shortage of ventilators was unjustified. According to lung specialists, the invasive ventilation (intubation) of Covid19 patients, which is partly done out of fear of spreading the virus, is in fact often counterproductive and damaging to the lungs.
Many clinics in Europe and the US remained strongly underutilized or almost empty during the Covid19 peak and in some cases had to send staff home. Numerous operations and therapies were cancelled, including some organ transplants and cancer screenings.
Several media were caught trying to dramatize the situation in hospitals, sometimes even with manipulative images and videos. In general, the unprofessional reporting of many media maximized fear and panic in the population.
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

Also, consider this:
150,000 Brits will die an 'avoidable death' during coronavirus pandemic through depression, domestic violence and suicides.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... cides.html

And these:
Big Business Has All the Advantages in the Pandemic
Even now, some of them are hiring and expanding while small companies are getting crushed.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... e-pandemic
A total of 81% of the global workforce of 3.3 billion people have had their workplace fully or partly closed.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52199888
New Zealand domestic violence services to get $200m as lockdown takes toll.
Nation has one of the highest rates of sexual and domestic violence in the developed world and rates have risen during coronavirus.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... takes-toll
Pandemic lockdown increases child abuse risk.
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05- ... abuse.html
It's not just civil liberties.
Many other charter rights have been violated in Covid19 pandemic.
https://nationalpost.com/news/its-not-j ... 9-pandemic
Denmark rushes through emergency coronavirus law.
Denmark's parliament on Thursday night unanimously passed an emergency coronavirus law which gives health authorities powers to force testing, treatment and quarantine with the backing of the police.
As well as enforcing quarantine measures, the law also allows the authorities to force people to be vaccinated, even though there is currently no vaccination for the virus.
https://www.thelocal.dk/20200313/denmar ... avirus-law
Gloom, my friend, I think you and me are talkin' to the willfully deaf & blind.
Gary Childress
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Re: Sick until proven healthy

Post by Gary Childress »

Gloominary wrote: Wed May 13, 2020 5:15 pm You're minimizing the seriousness of domestic violence.
Just like you're minimizing the seriousness of a disease which is almost sure death (and a pretty horrible one at that) for the sick and very elderly if they get it. It's all about cost-benefit as you say. Do we cater to the needs of controlling domestic violence (something that can also possibly be addressed with heightened police awareness and media campaigns during the crisis) or do we cater to the needs of those vulnerable to the disease? Our policy-makers chose the latter. It's also possible that domestic violence was left out of the equation and an unforeseen negative externality.
I'm not telling us what we can and can't do.
I'm saying we (as in we the people, not just the technocrats) should weigh all the costs against the benefit (assuming there is one) of lockdown, before we lockdown and during lockdown if we decide to go through with it.
If the costs outweigh the benefit then it should be lifted ASAP.
Presumably, the WHO and CDC did the math, probably based on what little info they had at the time from the Chinese and they made the decision that a lockdown was the better course. Should everyone have waited to see how devastating the disease was or wasn't before locking down? then it would conceivably be too late. We all know that hindsight is 20/20.

Was the lockdown necessary? I don't know. I don't know what would have happened in the US had states not locked down. It seems like common sense that the number of cases as well as deaths would have risen. By how much, who knows. You mention Sweden. Maybe Sweden proves that a lockdown was unnecessary or maybe there are factors that make Sweden a bad example for comparison.
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henry quirk
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Gary (or, anyone)

Post by henry quirk »

Gary Childress
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Re: Gary (or, anyone)

Post by Gary Childress »

As I've conceded, with hindsight, it's possible that the lockdown was unnecessary. That doesn't mean the CDC and WHO weren't acting on good faith with bad information.
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henry quirk
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Re: Gary (or, anyone)

Post by henry quirk »

Gary Childress wrote: Thu May 14, 2020 3:03 am
As I've conceded, with hindsight, it's possible that the lockdown was unnecessary. That doesn't mean the CDC and WHO weren't acting on good faith with bad information.
You read, actually read, everything at the link I posted?

Do yourself a favor: read it all, top to bottom.

Don't skim, and as the mood strikes, access the embedded links (essentially, the citations for the piece).
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