The Theory of Evolution - perfect?

How does science work? And what's all this about quantum mechanics?

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PauloL
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Re: The Theory of Evolution - perfect?

Post by PauloL » Sat Sep 23, 2017 12:44 am

Greta wrote:
Sat Sep 23, 2017 12:08 am
Books don't let me ask interesting questions, so this is where I ask them.

Also, I don't think Evolutionauts provide light material.

How we are made doesn't help understanding Cambrian explosion, except metaphorically as you put it.

It's a great metaphor, but there are better still, and yet questions keep unanswered.

Do you think the end of Cambrian explosion was orgasmic in nature?

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Greta
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Re: The Theory of Evolution - perfect?

Post by Greta » Sat Sep 23, 2017 1:51 am

PauloL wrote:
Sat Sep 23, 2017 12:44 am
Books don't let me ask interesting questions, so this is where I ask them.
So you would rather not have the answer so you can do your own investigations?

Note that your investigations are not in any way equivalent to those of researchers - thousands of people ranging from very smart to genius, who are passionately interested in the subject, working diligently, conducting countless studies and experiments, and devoting decades of deep thought to it.

Personally, I prefer to ask them because they know what they are talking about.
PauloL wrote: ... Evolutionauts
I note the self inflicted damage to credibility here - basically arguing like a politician or lawyer, using sneaky put-downs to manipulate in lieu of actual content.

How we are made doesn't help understanding Cambrian explosion, except metaphorically as you put it.
PauloL wrote:Do you think the end of Cambrian explosion was orgasmic in nature?
No, I think that sudden change is preceded by a buildup of pressure resulting in a threshold being exceeded.

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Re: The Theory of Evolution - perfect?

Post by PauloL » Sun Sep 24, 2017 11:50 am

Given the silence here, I understand it's not easy to explain in light of natural selection an explosion in which almost all animal life was produced in 20 million years then stopped and entered a balance.

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Re: The Theory of Evolution - perfect?

Post by PauloL » Sun Sep 24, 2017 12:07 pm

HEMOGLOBIN MOLECULE

Evolutionauts are invited to comment the odds of a hemoglobin just happen by chance.

Hemoglobin is composed of 4 chains of protein arranged in a precise way 2 by 2.

But let's focus on a single chain only.

There are 2 types of chains, one 141 amino-acid long, the other 146 amino-acid long.

The probability that an hemoglobin chain forms randomly by adding amino-acid after amino-acid is

10E190 (this doesn't allow superscript numbers, so this means 10 raised to the power of 190).

that is, 1 followed by 190 zeros!

This number impressed Asimov so much that it is often known as Asimov number.

For an idea how big is 10E190:

The total number of atoms in all Universe is:

10E80

If every atom in Universe went through some sort of chemical or nuclear event every second since Big Bang, the total number of events would be 4.23 x 10E97 events.

Compare this to the change of a chain of hemoglobin happen by chance: 10E190.

So, how could a hemoglobin chain happen by change?

Also, remember that one hemoglobin chain is useless for the red cell. A functional molecule needs the 4 chains, 2 by 2, which raises probability from 10E190 to 10E380 for a second chain to form randomly.

I hope I made everything clear to avoid mere semantic discussions, as usual.

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Re: The Theory of Evolution - perfect?

Post by davidm » Sun Sep 24, 2017 4:41 pm

PauloL wrote:
Sun Sep 24, 2017 11:50 am
Given the silence here, I understand it's not easy to explain in light of natural selection an explosion in which almost all animal life was produced in 20 million years then stopped and entered a balance.
There was no silence here. All your questions have been repeatedly answered. There was evolution before the Cambrian explosion. There has been evolution since. Noting has "stopped and entered a balance." You just don't know what you are talking about.

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Re: The Theory of Evolution - perfect?

Post by PauloL » Sun Sep 24, 2017 5:06 pm

davidm wrote:
Sun Sep 24, 2017 4:41 pm
You're treating semantic question, so perhaps you'd like to define us what's Cambrian explosion for you.

Also, you hemoglobin to discuss.

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Re: The Theory of Evolution - perfect?

Post by davidm » Sun Sep 24, 2017 5:29 pm

PauloL wrote:
Sun Sep 24, 2017 5:06 pm
davidm wrote:
Sun Sep 24, 2017 4:41 pm
You're treating semantic question, so perhaps you'd like to define us what's Cambrian explosion for you.

Also, you hemoglobin to discuss.
1. Why don't you learn to write coherent sentences?

2. I am not paid to teach you.

3. Your creationist-inspired hemoglobin nonsense contains a fatal error of probability calculation. Why don't you try to figure it out for yourself? Remember I am not paid to educate you, and I am especially disinclined to try to do so, pay or no pay, because you have demonstrated that you are uneducable. Also, you are, as previously noted, a creationist troll.

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Re: The Theory of Evolution - perfect?

Post by davidm » Sun Sep 24, 2017 5:34 pm

PauloL wrote:
Sun Sep 24, 2017 12:07 pm
I hope I made everything clear to avoid mere semantic discussions, as usual.
So a creationist troll like you thinks all I've provided is "mere semantic discussions" to your idiotic questions, and you honestly expect me to engage with you further? :lol: Especially with your hemoglobin nonsense? :lol:

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Re: The Theory of Evolution - perfect?

Post by PauloL » Sun Sep 24, 2017 6:10 pm

davidm wrote:
Sun Sep 24, 2017 5:29 pm
You're the only here who doesn't understand (very conveniently) what I write.

So where's the fatal error?

Accounts are easily done, but can reviewed in Asimov's "Only a Trillion".

Asimov even gave the probability to the whole molecule of hemoglobin (4 globin chains) as 4x10E619.

He calculated that a powerful computer would take 300 billion years working to test just 10E179 amino-acid-combinations.

But now computers are faster...

Or perhaps I said amino-acids and you wanted DNA base-pairs. Don't worry, probabilities are the same.

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Re: The Theory of Evolution - perfect?

Post by davidm » Sun Sep 24, 2017 6:25 pm

PauloL wrote:
Sun Sep 24, 2017 6:10 pm
davidm wrote:
Sun Sep 24, 2017 5:29 pm
You're the only here who doesn't understand (very conveniently) what I write.

So where's the fatal error?
:lol:

You write as though you were drunk! Your stupid sentences are filled not just with misspellings, but with outright incoherence. Anyway, I've answered all your questions in detail; I'm done with you. Go play in traffic, you creationist troll.

For others: the hemoglobin nonsense is straight from the creationist playbook, just like his other claims: that evolutionary theory is circular (it's not), that there are no transitional fossils (there are tons), that the Cambrian explosion poses a problem for evolutionary theory (it doesn't) and now the typical abuse of probability and statistics to try to show that the evolution of hemoglobin (or anything else, fill in the blank) is so vanishingly small that it must require a creator.

Of course this is utter nonsense. But for those interested, check this out. Hemoglobin discussed up top.

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Re: The Theory of Evolution - perfect?

Post by PauloL » Sun Sep 24, 2017 6:28 pm

davidm wrote:
Sun Sep 24, 2017 6:25 pm
Where are the misspellings?

Is Asimov a creationist playbook writer?

Nice article, indeed, it's quality is disclosed right away by it invoking Michael Behe's nonsense theory of irreducible complexity.

The article doesn't explain hemoglobin production by natural selection, it only tries to discredit mathematical accounts with such obscure arguments as "theorem of natural selection".

I read it twice and all he does is calling "Basic Argument from Improbability" to discredit Asimov's number and sound thoughts from his book "Only a Trillion". Great.

Are you searching a youtube video now?

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Re: The Theory of Evolution - perfect?

Post by davidm » Sun Sep 24, 2017 7:53 pm

For those masochistic enough to be still following this stupid thread, here are some general observations on probability and evolution. Bear in mind that the alleged extreme improbability of features evolving is one of the pillars of the Creationist Book of Talking Points, along with the others that PauloL has religiously and predictably exploited: the alleged circularity of evolutionary theory, the alleged lack of transitional fossils, the alleged inexplicability of the Cambrian Explosion, and now this.

Ask yourself: what is the likelihood of my being alive? The odds against you being alive are astronomical, without question; indeed they are probably incalculable, involving numbers so large they have never been named. You stand at the latest end of a process going back 3.8 billion years. How unlikely is it, that you are here? Very, very unlikely. Therefore, you should praise Jesus for being here, right?

Uh, no.

This argument ignores that there are different senses of probability, and these different senses must be taken into account holistically. It also ignores the fact that the improbable, even the wildly improbable, does not mean impossible. Wildly improbable events happen all the time. If an event has a probability of one in a billion, then after a billion trials, the probability of the event happening converges to 1 — unity. However, the event may occur a lot earlier, even on the very first trial. Shit happens.

Imagine a lottery in which every person on earth is given a ticket. Let’s say that is seven billion people; I don’t know the exact number, but that is irrelevant. Let’s round off to seven billion.

On one ticket, and one ticket only, will be printed the letter “W”, indicating “winner.”

What are the odds that you will draw the “W” ticket?

One in seven billion. The odds against you winning are astronomical.

But what are the odds that someone will win?

One hundred percent! Unity!

From this we see that the odds against you being alive are astronomical, but — given that life exists — then the odds that someone exists (seven billion someones, actually) are 100 percent.

You won the lottery! But then again, billions of people had to win it, against all odds!

I’ll discuss how this applies to evolution in my next post. Keep in mind, though, the following: Even though there is a chancy (lottery-like) element to evolution, random mutation PLUS natural selection is NOT a chance process — not a lottery! Or if it is a lottery, it’s a rigged lottery.

Yet we’ve just seen that even unrigged lotteries — total chance events — guarantee winners! :lol:

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Re: The Theory of Evolution - perfect?

Post by davidm » Sun Sep 24, 2017 7:58 pm

PauloL wrote:
Sun Sep 24, 2017 6:28 pm

Are you searching a youtube video now?
Go fuck yourself, you ignorant little twerp. I posted exactly one youtube video here because it inventively demonstrated evolution across history by converting units of time into units of space; even YOU claimed you liked it, even though you later showed you failed to understand it (evolution happened in "six seconds." :lol: )

Apart from that I have offered you long and detailed posts in response to your stupid questions. But we know that you are a creationist troll who is not interested in learning anything. The fact that you have stopped even denying that you are a creationist is telling.

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Re: The Theory of Evolution - perfect?

Post by davidm » Sun Sep 24, 2017 8:21 pm

PauloL wrote:
Sun Sep 24, 2017 12:07 pm
So, how could a hemoglobin chain happen by change?
Do you mean spare change? :?
Last edited by davidm on Sun Sep 24, 2017 8:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The Theory of Evolution - perfect?

Post by davidm » Sun Sep 24, 2017 8:23 pm

One more time, for the mentally infirm:

random mutation PLUS natural selection is NOT a "chance" event.

It's not even a spare change event! :lol:

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