CAN YOU IDENTIFY YOUR DELUSIONAL GOALS

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The Jesus Head
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CAN YOU IDENTIFY YOUR DELUSIONAL GOALS

Post by The Jesus Head »

CAN YOU IDENTIFY YOUR DELUSIONAL GOALS - The Sermons of the Jesus Head.

The Philosopher, John Gray, described humans as "deluded animals always trying to escape from what they believe themselves to be".
Gray is a realist ,whose philosophy translates the actuality of human experience, rather than its foggy aspirations.
Gray draws a line in the sand, in terms of what determination and aspiration can achieve, as opposed to the statistically improbable .
Gray has used this philosophical calibration to contest the Washington consensus quest
for a unified world. Gray is someone who reveals the fallacy of Utopian ideas by reference to the history of failed utopian projects.

It is shocking to find how deluded people can be.
But you will find little self delusion among statisticians or, for that matter, Bookies.
These people know that all outcomes are subject to the rules of probability
and, mostly ,they get it right .

What beliefs/aspirations do you hold that are unlikely ?
It is worth noting that in the game of Roulette the odds against the player are a mere 2.7%.
That is enough to make the casino the winner in the long run.

If everything you did had a 2.7% advantage in life then you would , overall,
succeed ,rather than fail .
But those who dream of the grandiose are often not practical thinkers.
Lost in their own little world of fantasy ,they are blind to unlikelihood and, are pulled apart by the adversity of hidden negative probability.
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Arising_uk
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Re: CAN YOU IDENTIFY YOUR DELUSIONAL GOALS

Post by Arising_uk »

Can TJH give an example of a delusional goal he has identified in himself?

What does Prof Gray say about dystopians?

What "Washington consensus"? Does America not do what its always done, i.e. pursue what it perceives as national interest but dresses it up in utopian terms.

How does one apply statistics and probabilities to such foggy things as dreams, beliefs and aspirations?
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LuvPimpinYou
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Re: CAN YOU IDENTIFY YOUR DELUSIONAL GOALS

Post by LuvPimpinYou »

The Jesus Head wrote:CAN YOU IDENTIFY YOUR DELUSIONAL GOALS - The Sermons of the Jesus Head.

The Philosopher, John Gray, described humans as "deluded animals always trying to escape from what they believe themselves to be".
Gray is a realist ,whose philosophy translates the actuality of human experience, rather than its foggy aspirations.
Gray draws a line in the sand, in terms of what determination and aspiration can achieve, as opposed to the statistically improbable .
Gray has used this philosophical calibration to contest the Washington consensus quest
for a unified world. Gray is someone who reveals the fallacy of Utopian ideas by reference to the history of failed utopian projects.

It is shocking to find how deluded people can be.
But you will find little self delusion among statisticians or, for that matter, Bookies.
These people know that all outcomes are subject to the rules of probability
and, mostly ,they get it right .

What beliefs/aspirations do you hold that are unlikely ?
It is worth noting that in the game of Roulette the odds against the player are a mere 2.7%.

That is enough to make the casino the winner in the long run.

If everything you did had a 2.7% advantage in life then you would , overall,
succeed ,rather than fail .
But those who dream of the grandiose are often not practical thinkers.
Lost in their own little world of fantasy ,they are blind to unlikelihood and, are pulled apart by the adversity of hidden negative probability.
My delusional goal is that mankind can work together to prolong our existence in THIS universe.
This though, will never occur due to the small thing we refer to as human nature.
Everyone only wants what they want, and not the benefit for humanity. Simple, and sad at the same time.
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Re: CAN YOU IDENTIFY YOUR DELUSIONAL GOALS

Post by bobevenson »

The Jesus Head wrote: But you will find little self delusion among Bookies. These people know that all outcomes are subject to the rules of probability.
Sports betting is not based on probability, but on opinion. Roulette is based on probability, and the bettor is at a disadvantage that can't be overcome. But if the sports bettor has inside information on an event, he has an advantage over the sportsbook.
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The Jesus Head
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Re: CAN YOU IDENTIFY YOUR DELUSIONAL GOALS

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Sports betting is not based on probability, but on opinion.
Bookies base it on "form" which is probability so you are wrong I am afraid .Professional gamblers on the same. The amateur ; who knows sometimes they use a pin on on newspaper.
Roulette is based on probability, and the bettor is at a disadvantage that can't be overcome
.

As one of the world's leading experts on the game of Roulette I beg to differ.
It cannot be overcome by amateurs but the professional gambler can make a living playing roulette and that is exactly what I do.
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Re: CAN YOU IDENTIFY YOUR DELUSIONAL GOALS

Post by bobevenson »

The Jesus Head wrote:
Sports betting is not based on probability, but on opinion.
Bookies base it on "form" which is probability so you are wrong I am afraid .Professional gamblers on the same. The amateur ; who knows sometimes they use a pin on on newspaper.
Roulette is based on probability, and the bettor is at a disadvantage that can't be overcome
.

As one of the world's leading experts on the game of Roulette I beg to differ.
It cannot be overcome by amateurs but the professional gambler can make a living playing roulette and that is exactly what I do.
Again, sports betting is based on opinion, not mathematical odds. If I know the top scorer on a basketball team just broke his leg, I can make a bet against that team and I will have a better than even chance of winning. Case closed on that question. As far as roulette, it's not like card counting in blackjack, so how do you beat the mathematical odds?
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Arising_uk
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Re: CAN YOU IDENTIFY YOUR DELUSIONAL GOALS

Post by Arising_uk »

bobevenson wrote:... As far as roulette, it's not like card counting in blackjack, so how do you beat the mathematical odds?
With computers. Sleight of hand seems to work as well.
http://listverse.com/2010/01/24/10-gamb ... he-casino/
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Arising_uk
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Re: CAN YOU IDENTIFY YOUR DELUSIONAL GOALS

Post by Arising_uk »

The Jesus Head wrote:Bookies base it on "form" which is probability so you are wrong I am afraid .
But whose 'form' do they base it on? As its not the actual form of whatever teams or competitors are taking place in the competition being bet upon, as if they did this they'd be gamblers not bookies.
Last edited by Arising_uk on Thu Jun 07, 2012 6:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The Jesus Head
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Re: CAN YOU IDENTIFY YOUR DELUSIONAL GOALS

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Again, sports betting is based on opinion, not mathematical odds.


Form is not strictly mathematical odds but a history of previous performance and of current circumstance . Have you never heard of a form book.
If I know the top scorer on a basketball team just broke his leg, I can make a bet against that team and I will have a better than even chance of winning.

This is form not opinion. And you would not succeed, because the Bookies would alter the odds , to reflect the changing front line.
Case closed on that question.
My father was a leading tipster with a column in a national newspaper and is an expert on sports betting.Case misunderstood by you on that question.
As far as roulette, it's not like card counting in blackjack, so how do you beat the mathematical odds?
I don't always beat the odds but I mostly beat them.

In blackjack the calculations are based on cards left in the pack that are favorable or otherwise to the player . In roulette, random distribution forms a similar virtual favorable/adverse number set . It is not unlike the stock market which is a random set of
moving data. Formulas are used to make predictions about which way the market will move coupled by the instinct/experience of the buyers and sellers.
Nick Leason who brought down Barings bank with his system did so by employing the lethal gambling martingale system which neither he nor his bosses understood.
This allowed him to out perform his peers, in the early days, but it eventually caused a total collapse of the system. Had I been a senior executive at the bank at that time it would never have crashed. I would have investigated the performance of Leason based on my hunch that he was out performing the average by covering his losses with excessive leverage.
Barings crashed because of the nativity of the management.
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Re: CAN YOU IDENTIFY YOUR DELUSIONAL GOALS

Post by bobevenson »

If you are at a true statistical disadvantage, there is no way you can win in the long run. In sports betting, you are normally at a 5% disadvantage based on an even chance of winning either side of the bet. This, of course, means you can just flip a coin to make your selection, and still be at a 5% disadvantage. A professional bettor can obviously do better than flipping a coin, and overcome the 5% disadvantage. He must win only 52.37% of his bets to break even.
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The Jesus Head
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Re: CAN YOU IDENTIFY YOUR DELUSIONAL GOALS

Post by The Jesus Head »

bobevenson wrote:If you are at a true statistical disadvantage, there is no way you can win in the long run. In sports betting, you are normally at a 5% disadvantage based on an even chance of winning either side of the bet. This, of course, means you can just flip a coin to make your selection, and still be at a 5% disadvantage. A professional bettor can obviously do better than flipping a coin, and overcome the 5% disadvantage. He must win only 52.37% of his bets to break even.
It is a negative edge pursuit. Professionals are just better than the average punter at
turning the edge around.
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Re: CAN YOU IDENTIFY YOUR DELUSIONAL GOALS

Post by bobevenson »

The Jesus Head wrote:
bobevenson wrote:If you are at a true statistical disadvantage, there is no way you can win in the long run. In sports betting, you are normally at a 5% disadvantage based on an even chance of winning either side of the bet. This, of course, means you can just flip a coin to make your selection, and still be at a 5% disadvantage. A professional bettor can obviously do better than flipping a coin, and overcome the 5% disadvantage. He must win only 52.37% of his bets to break even.
It is a negative edge pursuit. Professionals are just better than the average punter at
turning the edge around.
That's why they're called professionals.
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Arising_uk
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Re: CAN YOU IDENTIFY YOUR DELUSIONAL GOALS

Post by Arising_uk »

LuvPimpinYou wrote:...
My delusional goal is that mankind can work together to prolong our existence in THIS universe.
This though, will never occur due to the small thing we refer to as human nature.
Everyone only wants what they want, and not the benefit for humanity. Simple, and sad at the same time.
What do you mean by "prolong our existence in THIS universe" life-extension or just the human race surviving for an infinitely long-time?
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Re: CAN YOU IDENTIFY YOUR DELUSIONAL GOALS

Post by bobevenson »

I don't have any delusional goals, just crystal-clear meta-reality ones.
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LuvPimpinYou
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Re: CAN YOU IDENTIFY YOUR DELUSIONAL GOALS

Post by LuvPimpinYou »

Arising_uk wrote:
LuvPimpinYou wrote:...
My delusional goal is that mankind can work together to prolong our existence in THIS universe.
This though, will never occur due to the small thing we refer to as human nature.
Everyone only wants what they want, and not the benefit for humanity. Simple, and sad at the same time.
What do you mean by "prolong our existence in THIS universe" life-extension or just the human race surviving for an infinitely long-time?
Physicists believe that we live in a multiverse (more than one), therefor humans should do what they can to live as long as they possible can.
We will have to learn to jump from one galaxy to another, to ensure human life can continue. Eventually from THIS universe to another. We have to find where the last habitable planet will be, and move there. This of course will happen over the next billion or so years.
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