Confirmation bias.

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tillingborn
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Confirmation bias.

Post by tillingborn »

Here's one we could all learn from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1juPBoxBdc
But probably won't.
ThinkOfOne
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Re: Confirmation bias.

Post by ThinkOfOne »

tillingborn wrote: Thu Feb 02, 2023 9:04 pm Here's one we could all learn from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1juPBoxBdc
But probably won't.
As a matter of curiosity, what leads you to believe that it "probably won't"?
Iwannaplato
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Re: Confirmation bias.

Post by Iwannaplato »

tillingborn wrote: Thu Feb 02, 2023 9:04 pm Here's one we could all learn from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1juPBoxBdc
But probably won't.
So, what did you learn from it?

It seemed he had a couple of core points: one related to confirmation bias and one related to empathy and groups.
Flannel Jesus
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Re: Confirmation bias.

Post by Flannel Jesus »

ThinkOfOne wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 4:59 pm
tillingborn wrote: Thu Feb 02, 2023 9:04 pm Here's one we could all learn from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1juPBoxBdc
But probably won't.
As a matter of curiosity, what leads you to believe that it "probably won't"?
I'll ignore the counter examples naturally
Iwannaplato
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Re: Confirmation bias.

Post by Iwannaplato »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 5:18 pm I'll ignore the counter examples naturally
How would you know? :D
tillingborn
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Re: Confirmation bias.

Post by tillingborn »

ThinkOfOne wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 4:59 pm
tillingborn wrote: Thu Feb 02, 2023 9:04 pm Here's one we could all learn from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1juPBoxBdc
But probably won't.
As a matter of curiosity, what leads you to believe that it "probably won't"?
There are a few here who are genuinely curious and/or receptive who have little to learn about confirmation bias. The thing with confirmation bias though, is that confirmation bias persuades some of us that we are immune to it. You don't have to look far in this forum to find examples of people who believe their study, experience or intellect makes them nearly infallible. They are not likely to learn much.
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vegetariantaxidermy
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Re: Confirmation bias.

Post by vegetariantaxidermy »

Can't get past the bare feet. What a pretentious twat.
tillingborn
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Re: Confirmation bias.

Post by tillingborn »

Iwannaplato wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 5:06 pm
tillingborn wrote: Thu Feb 02, 2023 9:04 pm Here's one we could all learn from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1juPBoxBdc
But probably won't.
So, what did you learn from it?

It seemed he had a couple of core points: one related to confirmation bias and one related to empathy and groups.
Granted it's not radical stuff, but it is a reminder that while information technology has made us far better informed, it has also been fracturing and polarising society since Gutenberg started printing vernacular bibles.
Iwannaplato
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Re: Confirmation bias.

Post by Iwannaplato »

tillingborn wrote: Sun Feb 05, 2023 5:59 am
ThinkOfOne wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 4:59 pm
tillingborn wrote: Thu Feb 02, 2023 9:04 pm Here's one we could all learn from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1juPBoxBdc
But probably won't.
As a matter of curiosity, what leads you to believe that it "probably won't"?
There are a few here who are genuinely curious and/or receptive who have little to learn about confirmation bias. The thing with confirmation bias though, is that confirmation bias persuades some of us that we are immune to it. You don't have to look far in this forum to find examples of people who believe their study, experience or intellect makes them nearly infallible. They are not likely to learn much.
Could this conclusion be the result of confirmation bias?
tillingborn
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Re: Confirmation bias.

Post by tillingborn »

Iwannaplato wrote: Sun Feb 05, 2023 7:06 am
tillingborn wrote: Sun Feb 05, 2023 5:59 amThere are a few here who are genuinely curious and/or receptive who have little to learn about confirmation bias. The thing with confirmation bias though, is that confirmation bias persuades some of us that we are immune to it. You don't have to look far in this forum to find examples of people who believe their study, experience or intellect makes them nearly infallible. They are not likely to learn much.
Could this conclusion be the result of confirmation bias?
Of course, hence "confirmation bias persuades some of us", rather than 'some others'. I know there are some beliefs I prefer to others, and am therefore more sympathetic to supporting evidence. I don't always know which beliefs that applies to.
Iwannaplato
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Re: Confirmation bias.

Post by Iwannaplato »

tillingborn wrote: Sun Feb 05, 2023 8:24 am
Iwannaplato wrote: Sun Feb 05, 2023 7:06 amCould this conclusion be the result of confirmation bias?
Of course, hence "confirmation bias persuades some of us", rather than 'some others'. I know there are some beliefs I prefer to others, and am therefore more sympathetic to supporting evidence. I don't always know which beliefs that applies to.
So, how might you have worded the following differently, do you think, if you weren't aware of potential confirmation in yourself?
There are a few here who are genuinely curious and/or receptive who have little to learn about confirmation bias. The thing with confirmation bias though, is that confirmation bias persuades some of us that we are immune to it. You don't have to look far in this forum to find examples of people who believe their study, experience or intellect makes them nearly infallible. They are not likely to learn much.
What I mean is this was generally worded without qualification. 'Likely' in the last sentence an exception. Now without confirmation bias (and perhaps a change in personality also) you might have given us a list, yes. Or some other sign of even greater certainty. But in general it's a pretty flat judgment, presented with certainty. It also seems, at least, implicit that you are not someone in that group.

It would be interesting to see, for example, what happens if people learn about confirmation bias. If they watch a documentary about it and then later are given some tests to check for confirmation bias, did they do better than controls? Of if they are given more entensive training: like discussions of potential confirmation bias by a journalist in an article. They get points for coming up with different possible CBs that might have affected the article. Perhaps taking one article that ostensibly supports their politics and one the goes against it and total points wins - just me making a test up off the top of my head with competition adding to motivation to really understand how to apply it.

Will there be a difference?

Do people then, after knowing it, just have a new tool to use against those they disagree with, or a new label for their opinions?

How does the concept itself, knowing it/applying it, compare to...I dunno, hanging out with someone you're not supposed to like from 'the other team.'?

I suppose my questions to you and in general come from not finding that people who use the idea of confirmation bias when being critical of others seeming freer of it themselves - and given I have some fringie ideas, this makes me sensitive :) . But then my tallies can, of course, be confirmation biased based.

(oh, and just to be clear. I believe CB exists and is common)
Gary Childress
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Re: Confirmation bias.

Post by Gary Childress »

vegetariantaxidermy wrote: Sun Feb 05, 2023 6:05 am Can't get past the bare feet. What a pretentious twat.
That and the mascara on his eyes kind of turned me off. Looked like something the cat dragged in, like guys who wear their pants down around their knees with their underpants and the crack along their ass showing in plain view. I may be nothing to write home about, but at least I don't go out of my way to look like shit. It seems to just happen naturally for me. I will never understand people who put in extra effort to look like shit. But whatever.
tillingborn
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Re: Confirmation bias.

Post by tillingborn »

Iwannaplato wrote: Sun Feb 05, 2023 11:26 am...how might you have worded the following differently, do you think, if you weren't aware of potential confirmation in yourself?
There are a few here who are genuinely curious and/or receptive who have little to learn about confirmation bias. The thing with confirmation bias though, is that confirmation bias persuades some of us that we are immune to it. You don't have to look far in this forum to find examples of people who believe their study, experience or intellect makes them nearly infallible. They are not likely to learn much.
I don't know. There are so many permutations of me not being me that it is impossible to choose one without being me.
Iwannaplato wrote: Sun Feb 05, 2023 11:26 amWhat I mean is this was generally worded without qualification. 'Likely' in the last sentence an exception. Now without confirmation bias (and perhaps a change in personality also) you might have given us a list, yes. Or some other sign of even greater certainty. But in general it's a pretty flat judgment, presented with certainty. It also seems, at least, implicit that you are not someone in that group.
I could certainly give you a list of members who I think are batshit crazy, hence utterly oblivious to confirmation bias. At the same time, I would concede that some might think I am crazy. I think it's a fairly safe rule that if you can't accept that you might be crazy, you are crazy. That's not to presume that just because I accept I might be crazy, it follows that I'm not.
Iwannaplato wrote: Sun Feb 05, 2023 11:26 amIt would be interesting to see, for example, what happens if people learn about confirmation bias. If they watch a documentary about it and then later are given some tests to check for confirmation bias, did they do better than controls? Of if they are given more entensive training: like discussions of potential confirmation bias by a journalist in an article.
There is a ton of research on this. Google 'confirmation bias research' for a flavour. Generally the results show that awareness of confirmation bias offers some protection. It all feeds into whether critical thinking, a component of philosophy, should be taught. Finland has been in the news recently because of its policy to teach critical thinking to the very young. For example: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -fake-news
Iwannaplato wrote: Sun Feb 05, 2023 11:26 amI suppose my questions to you and in general come from not finding that people who use the idea of confirmation bias when being critical of others seeming freer of it themselves - and given I have some fringie ideas, this makes me sensitive :) . But then my tallies can, of course, be confirmation biased based.
Without confirmation bias, it is quite possible that progress, scientific at least, would be severely hindered. A lot of great ideas have come about despite the prevailing consensus. Good luck with your fringe ideas, I have a few of my own, but get a thicker skin; even mainstream ideas get a kicking.
Iwannaplato wrote: Sun Feb 05, 2023 11:26 am(oh, and just to be clear. I believe CB exists and is common)
You're on safe ground there.
Iwannaplato
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Re: Confirmation bias.

Post by Iwannaplato »

tillingborn wrote: Sun Feb 05, 2023 8:41 pm I don't know. There are so many permutations of me not being me that it is impossible to choose one without being me.
Understood. My main point was that here you are talking about your assessment of people in fairly certain terms. Despite the knowledge that your perceptions might be biased via confirmation bias. So, my idea was to set in motion a mulling, on both our parts: what does knowing about confirmation bias do in us. Despite your knowledge you could write quite strongly about people here and implicitly, via implicit contrast, yourself.
Iwannaplato wrote: Sun Feb 05, 2023 11:26 amWhat I mean is this was generally worded without qualification. 'Likely' in the last sentence an exception. Now without confirmation bias (and perhaps a change in personality also) you might have given us a list, yes. Or some other sign of even greater certainty. But in general it's a pretty flat judgment, presented with certainty. It also seems, at least, implicit that you are not someone in that group.
I could certainly give you a list of members who I think are batshit crazy, hence utterly oblivious to confirmation bias. At the same time, I would concede that some might think I am crazy. I think it's a fairly safe rule that if you can't accept that you might be crazy, you are crazy. That's not to presume that just because I accept I might be crazy, it follows that I'm not.
So, if we go back to the OP...
Here's one we could all learn from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1juPBoxBdc
But probably won't.
You didn't say it, but I interpreted this as 'and it would be good if we all did learn from it. If I am wrong, let me know. But I am wondering about that idea. Would it be better? How do we know that?

There is a ton of research on this. Google 'confirmation bias research' for a flavour. Generally the results show that awareness of confirmation bias offers some protection. It all feeds into whether critical thinking, a component of philosophy, should be taught. Finland has been in the news recently because of its policy to teach critical thinking to the very young. For example: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -fake-news
Thanks for the link. I read the article and followed the link to the summation of the project. It's huge so what I actually want to see may be in there or it may not be in there. I'd actually like to see the protocols. And I think it would actually be better to test people, rather than survey their tendencies for distrust, say, or how they react to news. This would open a whole can of worms, though so I won't pursue that now. Suffice it to day I live in a country that is the same color as Finland and find people to be incredibly gullible.
Without confirmation bias, it is quite possible that progress, scientific at least, would be severely hindered.
OK, I read that sentence and it sounds like you are saying something positive about confirmation bias. Which is an interesting idea and one that I think has some truth in it, but the coming sentences of yours seems to be saying the opposite.
A lot of great ideas have come about despite the prevailing consensus. Good luck with your fringe ideas, I have a few of my own, but get a thicker skin; even mainstream ideas get a kicking.
I was being playful with my 'sensitivity', my skin's pretty thick. But I do see a problem.
Iwannaplato wrote: Sun Feb 05, 2023 11:26 am(oh, and just to be clear. I believe CB exists and is common)
You're on safe ground there.
Yes. I just wanted it to be clear that I wasn't denying the phenomenon. That may have seemed too obvious to point out, but I find myself misinterpreted often, and make errors of interpretation myself. Wanted to nip that tangent in the bud.
tillingborn
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Re: Confirmation bias.

Post by tillingborn »

Iwannaplato wrote: Sun Feb 05, 2023 9:19 pmThanks for the link. I read the article and followed the link to the summation of the project. It's huge so what I actually want to see may be in there or it may not be in there. I'd actually like to see the protocols. And I think it would actually be better to test people, rather than survey their tendencies for distrust, say, or how they react to news.
There really is a ton of research on confirmation bias. Wikipedia is a good place to start: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias There are links to research papers at the bottom if you don't find what you are looking for in the article.
Iwannaplato wrote: Sun Feb 05, 2023 9:19 pm
tillingborn wrote: Sun Feb 05, 2023 8:41 pmWithout confirmation bias, it is quite possible that progress, scientific at least, would be severely hindered.
OK, I read that sentence and it sounds like you are saying something positive about confirmation bias. Which is an interesting idea and one that I think has some truth in it...
It's no secret that there are different research groups exploring different ideas. This has been true since ancient Greece when there were different schools of thought prior to Socrates, Plato and Aristotle. They really were the culmination and to some degree the homogenisation of Pre-Socratic research groups like the Milesians, the Eleatics an Pythagoreans. The Dark Ages weren't as dark as popularly imagined, but in western Europe the philosophical project was largely reconciling Plato and Christianity. There was more innovation between 600BC and 300BC than in the next 1500 years, until things started picking up with the rivalry between Christianity and Islam, the crusades and the challenge to Platonism of Aristotle, whose work was reintroduced by Muslim scholars. It is an ugly truth about our species that nothing motivates us like conflict. The 20th century was remarkable for the progress made in nuclear physics and space exploration, both of which were driven by world wars and the ensuing cold war and the ideologies being fought over. Maybe that's stretching confirmation bias.
Anyway, confirmation bias can drive people to greatness, and it can make them look like fools.
Iwannaplato wrote: Sun Feb 05, 2023 9:19 pm...I find myself misinterpreted often, and make errors of interpretation myself.
As often as not, that will be because whoever reads your work will be seeing it through their own biases.
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