perspective, numbers, facts

For philosophical reflections on the COVID-19 pandemic. How can philosophy help us to understand it, to combat it and to survive it?

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Dontaskme
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Re: beer virus humor (post your own)

Post by Dontaskme » Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:18 pm

Image

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henry quirk
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Re: beer virus humor (post your own)

Post by henry quirk » Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:28 pm

Dontaskme wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:18 pm
Image
:thumbsup:

Do me a favor: let's keep humor in the humor thread and numbers and facts here. Cross pollination is good but I don't wanna mingle the two too much.

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Dontaskme
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Re: beer virus humor (post your own)

Post by Dontaskme » Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:30 pm

henry quirk wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:28 pm
Dontaskme wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:18 pm
Image
:thumbsup:

Do me a favor: let's keep humor in the humor thread and numbers and facts here. Cross pollination is good but I don't wanna mingle the two too much.
I was just coming to move the image to the beer virus thread...when I realised I'd posted the image here on this thread by mistake.

I didn't see the mistake until I'd submitted it to the wrong thread.
Last edited by Dontaskme on Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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henry quirk
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Re: perspective, numbers, facts

Post by henry quirk » Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:32 pm

you can leave it

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henry quirk
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https://swprs.org/

Post by henry quirk » Sat Jun 13, 2020 12:57 am

June updates in place...

https://swprs.org/

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/


A taste (minus embedded links)...

Stanford professor John Ioannidis published an overview of Covid-19 antibody studies. According to his analysis, the lethality of Covid19 (IFR) is below 0.16% in most countries and regions. Ioannidis found an upper limit of 0.40% for three hotspots.

In its latest report, the US health authority CDC reduced the Covid19 lethality (IFR) to 0.26% (best estimate). Even this value may still be seen as an upper limit, since the CDC conservatively assumes 35% asymptomatic cases, while most studies indicate 50 to 80% asymptomatic cases.

At the end of May, however, Swiss immunologists led by Professor Onur Boyman published what is probably the most important study on Covid19 lethality to date. This preprint study comes to the conclusion that the usual antibody tests that measure antibodies in the blood (IgG and IgM) can recognize at most one fifth of all Covid19 infections.

The reason for this discrepancy is that in most people the new coronavirus is already neutralized by antibodies on the mucous membrane (IgA) or by cellular immunity (T-cells). In most of these cases, no symptoms or only mild symptoms develop.

This means that the new coronavirus is probably much more common than previously thought and the lethality per infection is up to five times lower than previously assumed. The real lethality could thus be well below 0.1% and hence in the range of strong seasonal influenza.

In fact, several studies have now shown that up to 60% of all people already have a certain cellular immunity to Covid-19, which was acquired through contact with previous coronaviruses (common cold viruses). Children in particular often come into contact with such coronaviruses, which could help explain their insensitivity to Covid19.

The new Swiss study may also explain why antibody studies even in hotspots like New York or Madrid found infection rates of at most about 20%, as this would correspond to an actual rate of nearly 100%. In many regions, the actual prevalence might already be well over 50% and thus in the range of ​​herd immunity.

Should the Swiss study be confirmed, the assessment of Oxford epidemiologist Prof. Sunetra Gupta would apply, who predicted early on that Covid-19 is very widespread and its lethality below 0.1%.

Despite the comparatively low lethality of Covid-19 (deaths per infection), the mortality (deaths per population) can still be increased regionally and in the short term if the virus spreads rapidly and reaches high risk groups, especially patients in nursing homes, as indeed happened in several hotspots (see below).

Due to its rather low lethality, Covid-19 falls at most into level 2 of the five-level pandemic plan developed by the US health authorities. For this level, only the “voluntary isolation of sick people” is to be applied, while further measures such as face masks, school closings, distance rules, contact tracing, vaccinations and lockdowns of entire societies are not recommended.

Regarding contact tracing, a WHO study on influenza pandemics from 2019 also came to the conclusion that from a medical point of view this is “under no circumstances recommended”, since it is not expedient for easily communicable and generally mild respiratory diseases.

It is sometimes argued that the rather low lethality was not known at the beginning of the pandemic. This is not entirely true, as data from South Korea, the cruise ships and even from Italy already showed in March that the risk to the general population is rather low.

Many health authorities also knew this, as leaked emails from Denmark in mid-March show: “The Danish Health Authority continues to consider that Covid-19 cannot be described as a generally dangerous disease, as it does not have either a usually serious course or a high mortality rate.”

Some media nevertheless continue to calculate an allegedly much higher Covid19 lethality rate of sometimes over 1% by simply dividing deaths by “infections”, without taking into account the age and risk distribution, which is absolutely crucial especially for Covid19.

The latest data from the European mortality monitoring Euromomo show that several countries such as France, Italy and Spain are already entering a below-average mortality. The reason for this is that the average age of Covid19 deaths was very high and fewer people than usual are now dying in this age group.


Any brave soul actually accessin' the site and the links ought to have an on-line language or webpage translator open cuz a lot of what's there is not in english.

-----

Dr. Richard Cross (retired university professor) sez...

When it comes to the COVID-19 event, we have been experiencing a serious case of tunnel vision. As we focus on the day to day increase of COVID-19 things could look pretty grim, but as we take a step back and look at the comparative total mortality here in the US, things aren’t much worse than a bad seasonal flu, like that last seen in 2017-18. If you take the New York City region out of the mix, the rest of the country is cumulatively well within the expected mortality.

*U.S. beer virus death total (as of 6-12-20): 113,820

*New York state beer virus death total (as of 6-12-20): 30,580

Subtract the NY total from the US total and we're down to 83,240 beer virus deaths for the rest of the country.

But wait, there's more...

New Jersey state beer virus death total (as of 6-12-20): 12,443

Subtract NJ total from the 83,240 and we're down to 70,797 for the rest of the country.

70,797: perfectly in keeping with a nasty flu for the 48 states (in the '17-'18 flu season: there were 959,000 hospitalizations and 79,400 deaths). And: the '19-'20 flu season, while not fully documented, is appearin' mild (possibly cuz legit flu deaths are bein' counted as beer virus deaths).

Here's a test: if beer virus is the bad ass mamajama the powers that be claim it is then, with all the goddamned protests, in all locales that hosted protestors, we ought to see, in a coupla weeks, significant hospitalizations & deaths.









*the numbers are not accurate: it's established that substantial, willful, miscounting is occurring...the true figures are several thousand below the official counts

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Sculptor
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Re: https://swprs.org/

Post by Sculptor » Tue Jun 16, 2020 5:38 pm

henry quirk wrote:
Sat Jun 13, 2020 12:57 am

Stanford professor John Ioannidis published an overview of Covid-19 antibody studies. According to his analysis, the lethality of Covid19 (IFR) is below 0.16% in most countries and regions. Ioannidis found an upper limit of 0.40% for three hotspots.



That is GREAT news.

It looks like the Lock Down is working well!!

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henry quirk
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Re: https://swprs.org/

Post by henry quirk » Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:54 am

Sculptor wrote:
Tue Jun 16, 2020 5:38 pm
henry quirk wrote:
Sat Jun 13, 2020 12:57 am

Stanford professor John Ioannidis published an overview of Covid-19 antibody studies. According to his analysis, the lethality of Covid19 (IFR) is below 0.16% in most countries and regions. Ioannidis found an upper limit of 0.40% for three hotspots.



That is GREAT news.

It looks like the Lock Down is working well!!


nope: it made no difference ('cept to mebbe make things *worse).









*see NY state

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henry quirk
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Covid-19(84)

Post by henry quirk » Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:39 am

https://swprs.org/

Updates & additions throughout.

As I say: there's a lot here, right up front and by way of embedded links and citations.

Keep a web page or language translator open: much of the linked material is not in English.

-----

The site is not only a great archive for beer virus facts, but it's also a great archive for material on how we're hoodwinked generally by those who claim to report (but instead propagandize).

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henry quirk
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Covid-19(84) KAREN EDITION!

Post by henry quirk » Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:28 pm

After a hard day of bein' on all fours, while you soak in the tub, go here...

https://swprs.org/

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Re: perspective, numbers, facts

Post by RCSaunders » Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:49 pm

How many individuals do you personally know who have become sick with the corona virus. I personally do not know a single individual out of the many I meet every day, and I have begun asking everyone I meet if they know anyone personally who has the virus. So far not one person says they have.

This seems odd to me, because I always meet at least some individuals during most flu seasons who either have had the flu or have friends or associates who have.

Just curious, because I do not just accept MSM and government propaganda. If this thing were as virulent as I am being told, why has no actual person experienced it?

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henry quirk
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RC

Post by henry quirk » Thu Jul 02, 2020 5:02 pm

How many individuals do you personally know who have become sick with the corona virus.

Not a one.

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RCSaunders
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Re: RC

Post by RCSaunders » Sat Jul 04, 2020 2:08 am

henry quirk wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 5:02 pm
How many individuals do you personally know who have become sick with the corona virus.

Not a one.
Apparently no one has the virus that anyone knows. I figured I'd be slammed with anecdotal examples, but not a peep. Odd, that!

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henry quirk
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Re: RC

Post by henry quirk » Sat Jul 04, 2020 5:35 pm

RCSaunders wrote:
Sat Jul 04, 2020 2:08 am
henry quirk wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 5:02 pm
How many individuals do you personally know who have become sick with the corona virus.

Not a one.
Apparently no one has the virus that anyone knows. I figured I'd be slammed with anecdotal examples, but not a peep. Odd, that!
Well, let's look at some (U.S.) numbers...

The official total count for cases is 2,794,321.

That's all of 'em in one number; asymptomatics who tested positive, mild and moderates who tested positive, hospitalizations who tested positive, and deaths who tested positive. It also includes all those individuals who were tested multiple times, with each positve countin' as a case (that's right: Joe is tested twice, once out of the hospital, once in the hospital, and it counts as two separate cases of beer virus). It also includes presumptive cases (folks presumed to have died of beer virus where no actual testin' occurred).

Like I said a while back: the most accurate numbers are found early in the year. Over time, a number of factors (error & deceit bein' primary), skew the numbers. Add to this skewn' the significant number of asymptomatics who were never tested, who aren't being tested, and reality is, we don't have any friggin' idea of the true total.

Now spread that 2,794,321 in uneven clumps throughout a population of 331,002,651 (another inaccurate number) and it's understandable why you might not run across anyone with beer virus or anyone who knows anyone with beer virus.

There's a psychological factor at play too: beer virus is old news. Despite the best efforts of some to market it as such, beer virus never became Coronapocalypse. People are tired of hearin' about it so they ain't talkin' much about it.

And there's a new skepticism in place as well. No, you can't conduct business cuz you might contract or spread beer virus, and if you do anyway you may be penalized , we're told. Yes, gather in the streets by the thousands, it's okay, we approve, they're told. Even poorly educated jackasses like myself can see sumthin' is wrong with all that.

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RCSaunders
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Re: RC

Post by RCSaunders » Sat Jul 04, 2020 7:43 pm

henry quirk wrote:
Sat Jul 04, 2020 5:35 pm
RCSaunders wrote:
Sat Jul 04, 2020 2:08 am
henry quirk wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 5:02 pm
How many individuals do you personally know who have become sick with the corona virus.

Not a one.
Apparently no one has the virus that anyone knows. I figured I'd be slammed with anecdotal examples, but not a peep. Odd, that!
Well, let's look at some (U.S.) numbers...

The official total count for cases is 2,794,321.

That's all of 'em in one number; asymptomatics who tested positive, mild and moderates who tested positive, hospitalizations who tested positive, and deaths who tested positive. It also includes all those individuals who were tested multiple times, with each positve countin' as a case (that's right: Joe is tested twice, once out of the hospital, once in the hospital, and it counts as two separate cases of beer virus). It also includes presumptive cases (folks presumed to have died of beer virus where no actual testin' occurred).

Like I said a while back: the most accurate numbers are found early in the year. Over time, a number of factors (error & deceit bein' primary), skew the numbers. Add to this skewn' the significant number of asymptomatics who were never tested, who aren't being tested, and reality is, we don't have any friggin' idea of the true total.

Now spread that 2,794,321 in uneven clumps throughout a population of 331,002,651 (another inaccurate number) and it's understandable why you might not run across anyone with beer virus or anyone who knows anyone with beer virus.

There's a psychological factor at play too: beer virus is old news. Despite the best efforts of some to market it as such, beer virus never became Coronapocalypse. People are tired of hearin' about it so they ain't talkin' much about it.

And there's a new skepticism in place as well. No, you can't conduct business cuz you might contract or spread beer virus, and if you do anyway you may be penalized , we're told. Yes, gather in the streets by the thousands, it's okay, we approve, they're told. Even poorly educated jackasses like myself can see sumthin' is wrong with all that.

Well none of that surprises me, Henry, and we're probably making a mistake talking about it, but it least we're not spreading the paranoia.

I did finally talk to someone today who knows personally a person who had the virus. Christina is a very interesting polyglot woman (speaks fluent Greek, English, and Spanish, and some others) and is a translator for a large Greenville, SC hospital. She knows one health-care worker who had a mild case and was back to work in about a week. She also said the only deaths she knows of are a couple of individuals with serious lung problems (asthma and COPD) who would probably have died from a bad cold. Some pandemic.

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henry quirk
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Re: RC

Post by henry quirk » Mon Jul 06, 2020 1:55 pm

RCSaunders wrote:
Sat Jul 04, 2020 7:43 pm
henry quirk wrote:
Sat Jul 04, 2020 5:35 pm
RCSaunders wrote:
Sat Jul 04, 2020 2:08 am

Apparently no one has the virus that anyone knows. I figured I'd be slammed with anecdotal examples, but not a peep. Odd, that!
Well, let's look at some (U.S.) numbers...

The official total count for cases is 2,794,321.

That's all of 'em in one number; asymptomatics who tested positive, mild and moderates who tested positive, hospitalizations who tested positive, and deaths who tested positive. It also includes all those individuals who were tested multiple times, with each positve countin' as a case (that's right: Joe is tested twice, once out of the hospital, once in the hospital, and it counts as two separate cases of beer virus). It also includes presumptive cases (folks presumed to have died of beer virus where no actual testin' occurred).

Like I said a while back: the most accurate numbers are found early in the year. Over time, a number of factors (error & deceit bein' primary), skew the numbers. Add to this skewn' the significant number of asymptomatics who were never tested, who aren't being tested, and reality is, we don't have any friggin' idea of the true total.

Now spread that 2,794,321 in uneven clumps throughout a population of 331,002,651 (another inaccurate number) and it's understandable why you might not run across anyone with beer virus or anyone who knows anyone with beer virus.

There's a psychological factor at play too: beer virus is old news. Despite the best efforts of some to market it as such, beer virus never became Coronapocalypse. People are tired of hearin' about it so they ain't talkin' much about it.

And there's a new skepticism in place as well. No, you can't conduct business cuz you might contract or spread beer virus, and if you do anyway you may be penalized , we're told. Yes, gather in the streets by the thousands, it's okay, we approve, they're told. Even poorly educated jackasses like myself can see sumthin' is wrong with all that.

Well none of that surprises me, Henry, and we're probably making a mistake talking about it, but it least we're not spreading the paranoia.

I did finally talk to someone today who knows personally a person who had the virus. Christina is a very interesting polyglot woman (speaks fluent Greek, English, and Spanish, and some others) and is a translator for a large Greenville, SC hospital. She knows one health-care worker who had a mild case and was back to work in about a week. She also said the only deaths she knows of are a couple of individuals with serious lung problems (asthma and COPD) who would probably have died from a bad cold. Some pandemic.
Pretty much any set of figures you wanna look at sez this, yeah.

Older folks, fragile folks are at risk (and we've known this for a while), while younger, healthy folks typically weather beer virus well.

As I say: we done been hoodwinked.

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