Sure, but a working, simple, mass producible antibody test has proven to be more difficult to produce than we were hoping.vegetariantaxidermy wrote: ↑Mon Apr 13, 2020 9:12 amHe didn't say that, he was just quoting me. We do need an antibody test for it because it's possible that many people have had the virus without knowing it and they could now have immunity or at least resisitance to the virus therefore there is no reason why they couldn't return to work. There is also a very big difference between something with a .1 percent mortality rate and a 3 percent death rate. It would enable researchers to determine a reasonably accurate mortality rate, allowing govts. to make informed decisions on how to deal with it rather than just guessing and hoping they are doing the right thing.FlashDangerpants wrote: ↑Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:01 amThat will be nice, but there's no strict reason we need an antibody test for that. By current accounting something like 10 to 15% of New York has had the disease, 20% at most. By yours, more or less all of them have had it, so it will go away by itself in the next week or so.henry quirk wrote: ↑Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:10 am They will only know the true mortality rate when they have tested a very large cross-section of the population for antibodies since there are probably a lot people who have had it without knowing it. I'm guessing at .1 percent, but it's just a guess, like everyone else is doing-- including the 'experts'.
Long before that test becomes generally available, by the number that Henry has predicted in that quote - where he believes the disease to be 90% less dangerous than the current estimates, he seems by extension to be claiming that many times more people have had the disease than previously estimated. Therefore the heavily hit zones such as NYC must be at herd immunity levels by now.
So Henry's guess will be demonstrated true or false very quickly.
And then we can start dealing with why such an immensely low risk but virulent disease would be killing people in these little hot zones in the way that a less easily transmitted but nastier disease would. But that's for scare-quote 'experts' to worry about.