Bayesian Logic.

Arising_uk · Post by **Arising_uk** » Sat Oct 15, 2011 2:49 am

Oo! Oo! I know what I'd like.

Someone to give a primer on Bayesian Logic as I have it on good authority that it'll make me a Superman.

Metazoan · Post by **Metazoan** » Sat Oct 15, 2011 12:09 pm

Ooo er 'eck Arising,

Deep end first eh?

From a quick look at Bayesian probability, it looks like your chances of becoming Superman by understanding Bayesian probability, as opposed to, say, becoming an actor, is roughly zero.

(Ok, I know I didn't need Bayes' theorem for that.)

It is interesting stuff though, thanks for pointing me at it.

Now all I need is to find a real world problem to apply it to, that no one else has yet, and I could make a bob or two.

Hmmm... The chances of me getting rich by winning the lottery, as opposed to becoming a mathematician, comes out at about 0.8.

I'll not be giving up my day job any time soon I guess.

I look forward to reading about Bayesian Logic.

_________________
I read too much xkcd.

Arising_uk · Post by **Arising_uk** » Sun Oct 16, 2011 12:03 am

I think it was Mike Alder in PN who made the Superman claim. I'm just hoping someone can do a starter class for dummies.

Metazoan · Post by **Metazoan** » Sun Oct 16, 2011 12:29 pm

Sorry Arising, I got what you said, I was just messing around.

I found 'em:-
http://philosophynow.org/issue51/How_To ... y_hate_you
http://philosophynow.org/issue52/How_To ... y_hate_you

_________________
I have just worked out the probability of me failing my statistics exam at p = 2.

Mike Strand · Post by **Mike Strand** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 11:16 am

Bayesian logic? In a way, it's how we change our bets if we have special information.

If a die hasn't been rolled, and you ask me what are the chances of getting 3 spots, I would say one in six. If it has been rolled, and I don't see the outcome, and you tell me it shows an odd number of spots, then I would say the chances of it being 3 spots is one in three.

I think this is a start at understanding Bayesian logic. Or at least one aspect of it, regarding probability theory.

Typist · Post by **Typist** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 11:46 am

Hi Mike, always good to see you here!

Nikolai · Post by **Nikolai** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 3:37 pm

Typist wrote:Hi Mike, always good to see you here!

Because the title of this thread, "Bayesian Logic". is a straight forward search phrase that one would type into google, Typist has made sure that his name and sig is associated with it.

Was there any other point to the post he just made?

Nikolai · Post by **Nikolai** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 3:37 pm

Typist wrote:Hi Mike, always good to see you here!

Because the title of this thread, "Bayesian Logic". is a straight forward search phrase that one would type into google, Typist has made sure that his name and sig is associated with it.

Was there any other point to the post he just made?

Arising_uk · Post by **Arising_uk** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 3:40 pm

Now, now, spats aside.

Mike Strand · Post by **Mike Strand** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 10:22 pm

Thanks, Typist. I hope other readers won't mind we go back a ways on this forum and have learned from each other's posts in various topics.

Bayesian Logic is also involved in Bayes' Theorem (or formula), which provides, for one example, the basis for assessing the effectiveness of tests for disease. If you know the probabilities of false positives and false negatives from previous lab work, you can get a better handle on the probability of having a disease if a test is positive (or negative).

If anybody is interested in seeing where the formula comes from or an example of how it's applied, Wikipedia is a good source.

P.S. I don't think understanding this stuff can make you Super. But it can be useful in some kinds of investigations.

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