Flannel Jesus wrote: ↑Sat Aug 13, 2022 2:03 pm
Age wrote: ↑Sat Aug 13, 2022 1:42 pm
'..., or if there were still only two boxes but one box had fifty $100 bills in it and one box with forty nine $1 bills and one $100 bill in it, for example, then, that you are more likely to pull a $100 bill out of the box that is 'full' of $100 bills in it is obviously more likely.'
It is on this page, second post down, and in first sentence of last full paragraph of my post.
You're confusing the conversation by answering questions that aren't being asked in this part of the conversation, so I still literally have no idea what you think.
What 'part' of the conversation are you referring to here?
Flannel Jesus wrote: ↑Sat Aug 13, 2022 2:03 pm
If you have 2 bags in front of you, and one has 50 blue balls, and the other has 1 blue ball and 49 red balls, and you choose a bag blindly, and you reach into it blindly and pull out a ball, and that ball is blue, what is the probability that you chose the bag full of blue balls? Is it 50/50, or is it some other probability?
For the third time;
'If there were still only two boxes but one box had fifty $100 bills in it and one box with forty nine $1 bills and one $100 bill in it, for example, then, that you are more likely to pull a $100 bill out of the box that is 'full' of $100 bills in it is obviously more likely.'
Which literally means:
If I have 2 bags in front of me, and one has 50 blue balls, and the other has 1 blue ball and 49 red balls, and I choose a bag blindly, and I reach into it blindly and pull out a ball, and that ball is blue, then what the probability that I chose the bag full of blue balls is 50/50. This is because there was only 2 things to choose from.
IT IS OBVIOUSLY MORE LIKELY, however, as I explained above, that if I chose the bag with the 50 blue balls in it, then I would pull a blue ball out of it than a red ball.
Knowing what I pulled out does not change what the actual odds were when I chose the two bags. That will always remain 50/50. To say otherwise would be like 'trying to' argue that if I toss a coin 49 times, for example, and that each one of those tosses was a head, then this means that there will be more probabilities that the next toss will be a tail. It does not work like that.
The probability that I picked the bag with all blue balls will always remain 50/50, until proof is shown otherwise. Which, by the way, will only take the picking of two balls out of the bag.
What do you think is the probability that I chose the bag full of blue balls, in your example above?