What a stupid question. I see no value in having infinite money - I see infinite harm in having zero.Flannel Jesus wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 4:48 am They sure are possible. You willing to miss out on infinite money because of a concern like that?
So if I bet absolutely everything I own on the very first game... how long can I keep playing for?Flannel Jesus wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 4:48 am You can make a bet of any size. Just imagine you have the same amount of money that you have now.
"astronomical" is not a probability. What's the probability of me exiting the game (permanently) within the first 10 draws if I bet everything I own on every turn?Flannel Jesus wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 4:48 am The amount of bad luck we're talking about here is astronomical, tbh.
Exact same question. What's the probability of me exiting life (permanently) within the first N times I bet everything (my life) when I get into a car?Flannel Jesus wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 4:48 am I'd wager you're far more likely to die in a car crash in your next car ride, than you would be to lose money making the smart bet over and over and over again here.
Therein lies your misunderstanding. In gambling your upside is unbounded, but your downside is not.Flannel Jesus wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 4:48 am But you seem so set against the bet, because of some aversion to luck, that you'd probably rather continue driving to work every day (I don't know if you drive to work, I'm just using this as illustrative, replace "driving" with some other mundane but ultimately risky thing you do frequently) than you would be to take the smart bet.
When you hit rock bottom it's game over. And I am not maximising for upside - I am maximising for remaining in the game for as long as possible.
Such beautiful poetry. I told you that you are a terrible gambler.Flannel Jesus wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 4:48 am So if you're more worried about an infinite losing streak than dieing in a car crash, despite the latter being provably more likely, I think the fallacy lies with you. You are loss averse and risk averse, but you are blind to certain types of risk and overly concerned with other types of risk.
I am not loss or risk averse. I am pointing out the deeply-seated bug in your brain (a bug which is nay impossible to explain to dumb theoreticians and academics, but practitioners get it instantly).
In the possibility of ruin (permanent exit from the game) cost-benefit analysis is not possible.
If the probability of dying in plane crash was 0.01% most pilots on Earth would die on the job.