A fun little probability puzzle for you.

What is the basis for reason? And mathematics?

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Skepdick
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Skepdick »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:10 pm You haven't heard my strategy so how do you know mine is losing?
Because you have a finite bankroll.

Every strategy loses against the house.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:10 pm You've deliberately invented a losing strategy and now you're saying the game is rigged
There is no winning strategy against an infinite bankroll.

They can keep playing longer than you can keep paying!
Flannel Jesus
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Flannel Jesus »

It's a casino. You can leave whenever you want. It doesn't matter how long they want to play, it matters when you want to stop
Skepdick
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Skepdick »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:16 pm It's a casino. You can leave whenever you want.

It doesn't matter how long they want to play, it matters when you want to stop
So YOU don't want infinite money either? Why would you stop playing?!?

See, the trouble with your analogy is that unlike the silly game-theoretic model you can't leave the casino of life.

When do you want to stop living (exit the casino)? Why not now?

If you don't even understand the mission how could you possibly come up with a "winning" strategy?
Flannel Jesus
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Flannel Jesus »

I have no clue what you're talking about, but it certainly isn't an optimal betting strategy given the defined tables. You continue to engage in the conversation while trying to derail it.

I invented the betting scenario to give you a tangible reason to commit to a view of the probabilities. One of the tables gives you a positive expected return if you assume 50/50, the other table gives you a positive expected return if you assume that the canonical answer is right.

But no matter how I phrase it, no matter what I do to get you to engage with the actual probabilities at hand, you keep forcing the conversation somewhere else. "Well what happens if I deliberately try to lose all my money?" Mate, I don't care what happens when you deliberately try to lose all your money. Nobody wants to talk about that.

"Well what if I keep betting forever and ever?" Mate, again, nobody cares, that's not the point of betting hypotheticals. I'm not asking you to bet forever and ever.

I've presented the tables, you can choose your own betting strategy, you can choose your preferred table. You don't need to bet forever, and you obviously shouldn't bet everything every time. I don't know why you're so obsessed with losing on purpose.

If you don't want more money, then just imagine that you did, lmao.
Flannel Jesus
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Flannel Jesus »

You're averse to the idea of losing ALL of your money, which makes a lot of sense, so don't. Many people go to casinos with a limit. "I've got 10,000 in the bank, I'll go to the casino with 1000 and if I lose that, well it's not nice but it's not the end of the world either"

So you show up, and you don't do the most idiotic thing possible, and put all 1000 down on the first bet. If you tried to come up with a more sensible strategy, it might be "I'll bet 1/1000th of my purse every time", and then you say "I'll leave when I lost all 1000, or when I've grown 1000 to 1,000,000". That's an example of a strategy someone might come up with who was trying to win, rather than trying to derail a conversation.
Skepdick
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Skepdick »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:29 pm I have no clue what you're talking about, but it certainly isn't an optimal betting strategy given the defined tables. You continue to engage in the conversation while trying to derail it.
Optimal for what goal?

Is your goal to remain in the game as long as possible?
Is your goal to make infinite money?
Is your goal to win?
Is your goal to exit the game (eventually)?


I am not derailing anything. I am drawing attention to your nonsense.

You cannot define the halting condition for your algorithm. When do you stop playing and why?

Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:29 pm I invented the betting scenario to give you a tangible reason to commit to a view of the probabilities. One of the tables gives you a positive expected return if you assume 50/50, the other table gives you a positive expected return if you assume that the canonical answer is right.
You can't define "right" in Mathematics. That's always a human judgment. People have been trying for a few thousand years.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:29 pm But no matter how I phrase it, no matter what I do to get you to engage with the actual probabilities at hand, you keep forcing the conversation somewhere else.
I am "forcing" the conversation into you actually defining an objective utility function.

WHY are you playing the game that you are playing?
What's your game plan?

My desperate attempts to get you to be explicit about all of those hidden variables is what you see as "derailment"
Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:29 pm "Well what happens if I deliberately try to lose all my money?" Mate, I don't care what happens when you deliberately try to lose all your money. Nobody wants to talk about that.
Mate, that's a strawman, mate. There is no deliberation involved in losing against an infinite bank roll.

It's just a statistical certainty. Mate.

Why don't you want to talk about the fact that the game is rigged, Mate?
Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:29 pm "Well what if I keep betting forever and ever?" Mate, again, nobody cares, that's not the point of betting hypotheticals. I'm not asking you to bet forever and ever.
Mate, there is no way to calculate probabilities if you don't ASSUME betting forever and ever. That is HOW probability is calculated.

I showed you the algorithm which performs the experiment a million iterations.
You calculate the probability by working out the limit for infinitely-many iterations.

That is what probability is. By tautological definition. The outcome after an infinitely many plays.

Now you are telling me that you aren't going to play infinitely long ?!?
Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:29 pm I've presented the tables, you can choose your own betting strategy, you can choose your preferred table. You don't need to bet forever, and you obviously shouldn't bet everything every time. I don't know why you're so obsessed with losing on purpose.
I am not obsessed with losing on purpose. I am obsessed with winning on purpose.

Please can you define your winning strategy, your criteria for success and your optimisation function already!
Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:29 pm If you don't want more money, then just imagine that you did, lmao.
Strawman. If you want more money why would you ever stop playing?
Skepdick
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Skepdick »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:34 pm You're averse to the idea of losing ALL of your money, which makes a lot of sense, so don't.
No! You continue to misunderstand. Its that thing I keep telling you - that you aren't idea-driven. You don't care about real-world actionable stuff.

What I am averse to is exiting the game unwillingly. I'll leave the casino when I feel like it.

So please work out a winning strategy for me.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:34 pm Many people go to casinos with a limit. "I've got 10,000 in the bank, I'll go to the casino with 1000 and if I lose that, well it's not nice but it's not the end of the world either"
AH! Now he grasps the problem. Unbound variables.

So assuming I walk into the casino with 1000, please work out an optimal strategy where I get to leave the casino whenever I feel like it.

e.g avoid going broke
Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:34 pm So you show up, and you don't do the most idiotic thing possible, and put all 1000 down on the first bet.
OK, I won't put all of my money down. I'll put $1 at a time. So a 1000-losing streak is what it takes to make me exit the game unwillingly.

That's not a good enough strategy. Give me a better one.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:34 pm If you tried to come up with a more sensible strategy, it might be "I'll bet 1/1000th of my purse every time", and then you say "I'll leave when I lost all 1000
If you keep betting 1/1000th of your purse every time you will never leave.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:34 pm or when I've grown 1000 to 1,000,000"
OK, so if your betting strategy is to bet 1/1000th of your purse, how long (on average) do you think it will take you to get from 1000 to 1000000 ?
Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:34 pm That's an example of a strategy someone might come up with who was trying to win, rather than trying to derail a conversation.
Yeah... You still can't fucking define what you mean by "win".

I am not the one derailing the conversation - the conversation is a trainwreck.

All of my efforts to get you to define the halting condition of your algorithm, and then to estimate some runtime bounds have been fruitless!
All of my efforts to put the train back on the track have been sabotaged by your intellectual masturbation.
Flannel Jesus
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Flannel Jesus »

You define win, it's your money mate, lmao.
Skepdick
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Skepdick »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:34 pm So you show up, and you don't do the most idiotic thing possible, and put all 1000 down on the first bet. If you tried to come up with a more sensible strategy, it might be "I'll bet 1/1000th of my purse every time".
In all fairness, this is the first time you have actually displayed even a modicum of real-world sensibility. Don't go all-in. It's stupid indeed.

So, how do I bed only 1/1000th of my purse every time I gamble by driving a car?
Skepdick
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Skepdick »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:56 pm You define win, it's your money mate, lmao.
So define it!

1000.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000...1 is more than 1000.

Is that a win?
Flannel Jesus
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Flannel Jesus »

The first time I displayed a modicum of sensibility is when I tried to convince you not to adopt a clearly losing strategy?

The fact that I had to do that at all shows how sensible you're being. Don't try to lose.
Skepdick
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Skepdick »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 1:06 pm The first time I displayed a modicum of sensibility is when I tried to convince you not to adopt a clearly losing strategy?
It's neither clearly winning nor clearly losing. You haven't defined your success criteria yet to make such judgments.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 1:06 pm The fact that I had to do that at all shows how sensible you're being. Don't try to lose.
I am not trying to lose - stop strawmanning me. What part of the problem do you not understand?

How do I bet only 1/1000th of my purse when I take the gamble on driving a car?

How do I translate your abstract strategy into concrete action ?!?!? Should I dismember myself?
Flannel Jesus
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Flannel Jesus »

I don't think it's a strawman. I'm pretty certain you devised the "bet it all every time" strategy for the express purpose of showing a losing strategy. Is that not right? Did you come up with that strategy in a genuine attempt to win?
Skepdick
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Skepdick »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 1:12 pm I don't think it's a strawman. I'm pretty certain you devised the "bet it all every time" strategy for the express purpose of showing a losing strategy. Is that not right? Did you come up with that strategy in a genuine attempt to win?
Fuck me. Are you really this stupid that I have to spell everything out for you?!?

What is the winning strategy in a game where the ONLY possible bet is all-in?

Such as the game where you take the risk of driving a car.

I am genuinely trying to win. HOW?
Flannel Jesus
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Flannel Jesus »

I don't see how that question is relevant to anything
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