A fun little probability puzzle for you.

What is the basis for reason? And mathematics?

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Skepdick
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Skepdick »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 4:48 am They sure are possible. You willing to miss out on infinite money because of a concern like that?
What a stupid question. I see no value in having infinite money - I see infinite harm in having zero.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 4:48 am You can make a bet of any size. Just imagine you have the same amount of money that you have now.
So if I bet absolutely everything I own on the very first game... how long can I keep playing for?
Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 4:48 am The amount of bad luck we're talking about here is astronomical, tbh.
"astronomical" is not a probability. What's the probability of me exiting the game (permanently) within the first 10 draws if I bet everything I own on every turn?
Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 4:48 am I'd wager you're far more likely to die in a car crash in your next car ride, than you would be to lose money making the smart bet over and over and over again here.
Exact same question. What's the probability of me exiting life (permanently) within the first N times I bet everything (my life) when I get into a car?
Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 4:48 am But you seem so set against the bet, because of some aversion to luck, that you'd probably rather continue driving to work every day (I don't know if you drive to work, I'm just using this as illustrative, replace "driving" with some other mundane but ultimately risky thing you do frequently) than you would be to take the smart bet.
Therein lies your misunderstanding. In gambling your upside is unbounded, but your downside is not.

When you hit rock bottom it's game over. And I am not maximising for upside - I am maximising for remaining in the game for as long as possible.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 4:48 am So if you're more worried about an infinite losing streak than dieing in a car crash, despite the latter being provably more likely, I think the fallacy lies with you. You are loss averse and risk averse, but you are blind to certain types of risk and overly concerned with other types of risk.
Such beautiful poetry. I told you that you are a terrible gambler.

I am not loss or risk averse. I am pointing out the deeply-seated bug in your brain (a bug which is nay impossible to explain to dumb theoreticians and academics, but practitioners get it instantly).

In the possibility of ruin (permanent exit from the game) cost-benefit analysis is not possible.

If the probability of dying in plane crash was 0.01% most pilots on Earth would die on the job.
Flannel Jesus
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Flannel Jesus »

Listen, if you choose to make stupid bets, that's on you lmao. If you choose not to accept infinite money, fine.

For some reason I've been foolish enough to invent a scenario to get some meaningful engagement from you, and you're not interested. Fine, you're not interested in meaningful engagement. You want to derail the conversation literally every chance you get. I'm not gonna try any more for you
Age
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Age »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 4:48 am I'm not really sure what you're talking about Age, please show me. How would you reword it? What's the probability?
Well the probability IS; what I just SAID and WROTE it IS, above.

The percentage BEFORE the box is chosen may well be about 66%. But, AFTER the box is chosen and the other removed, and a bill HAS BEEN chosen, then the odds LEFT NOW are 50%. As there, NOW, can only be one 100 dollar bill OR one 1 dollar bill.

How does that rewording do?

Do you have SOME idea or clue as to what I am talking about, now?

Can you now see what I have been talking about and referring to?
Flannel Jesus
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Flannel Jesus »

Age wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 8:50 am
Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 4:48 am I'm not really sure what you're talking about Age, please show me. How would you reword it? What's the probability?
Well the probability IS; what I just SAID and WROTE it IS, above.

The percentage BEFORE the box is chosen may well be about 66%. But, AFTER the box is chosen and the other removed, and a bill HAS BEEN chosen, then the odds LEFT NOW are 50%. As there, NOW, can only be one 100 dollar bill OR one 1 dollar bill.

How does that rewording do?

Do you have SOME idea or clue as to what I am talking about, now?

Can you now see what I have been talking about and referring to?
Not at all, no. I have no idea how you've decided that the odds are 66% before the box is chosen.
Age
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Age »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 8:55 am
Age wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 8:50 am
Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 4:48 am I'm not really sure what you're talking about Age, please show me. How would you reword it? What's the probability?
Well the probability IS; what I just SAID and WROTE it IS, above.

The percentage BEFORE the box is chosen may well be about 66%. But, AFTER the box is chosen and the other removed, and a bill HAS BEEN chosen, then the odds LEFT NOW are 50%. As there, NOW, can only be one 100 dollar bill OR one 1 dollar bill.

How does that rewording do?

Do you have SOME idea or clue as to what I am talking about, now?

Can you now see what I have been talking about and referring to?
Not at all, no. I have no idea how you've decided that the odds are 66% before the box is chosen.
But I NEVER even thought that that the odds are 66% before the box is chosen, let alone said that anywhere here.

So, WHY, EXACTLY, did you make the ASSUMPTION that I did decide that?
Flannel Jesus
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Flannel Jesus »

Age wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 9:20 am
But I NEVER even thought that that the odds are 66% before the box is chosen, let alone said that anywhere here.

So, WHY, EXACTLY, did you make the ASSUMPTION that I did decide that?
You're not being very clear. You said this
If, however, the question is asked BEFORE I 'choose', then the answer WILL BE DIFFERENT.
And I invited you to explain exactly what you mean by that by rewording it so the question is asked BEFORE, and to show me what's different.

I'm just inviting you to share your thoughts, and now you're getting very irate. Do you not want to share your thoughts?
Age
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Age »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 9:23 am
Age wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 9:20 am
But I NEVER even thought that that the odds are 66% before the box is chosen, let alone said that anywhere here.

So, WHY, EXACTLY, did you make the ASSUMPTION that I did decide that?
You're not being very clear.
And you are MISUNDERSTANDING what I have CLEARLY WRITTEN here.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 9:23 am You said this
If, however, the question is asked BEFORE I 'choose', then the answer WILL BE DIFFERENT.
And I invited you to explain exactly what you mean by that by rewording it so the question is asked BEFORE, and to show me what's different.
Which I DID, as can be SEEN above.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 9:23 am I'm just inviting you to share your thoughts, and now you're getting very irate. Do you not want to share your thoughts?
LOL I NEVER got 'irate' here AT ALL.

Would you like to SHARE WHY you are ASSUMING some thing Wrong here, ONCE AGAIN?

Also, I shared My thoughts here.

Would you like to respond to the ACTUAL WORDS I HAVE USED here, INSTEAD of the ones that you ASSUMED I have said and written?
Flannel Jesus
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Flannel Jesus »

I don't want to read anything you write anymore if I'm being honest. I don't think I'm alone in finding your reliance on the caps lock key quite obnoxious and aggressive. If that's not what you intend to communicate, you should consider changing it up a bit
Age
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Age »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 9:32 am I don't want to read anything you write anymore if I'm being honest. I don't think I'm alone in finding your reliance on the caps lock key quite obnoxious and aggressive.
Here we have ANOTHER ASSUMPTION, which is completely and utterly Wrong AND Incorrect.

That is about FOUR now you have made, of which ALL were False, Wrong, and/or Incorrect.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 9:32 am If that's not what you intend to communicate, you should consider changing it up a bit
If you intend to come into a philosophy forum and ask a question, which is supposed to be "a fun little probablity puzzle", then do NOT get so UPPITY when the answer, which is IRREFUTABLY True AND Correct does NOT align with YOUR ANSWER.

If you do NOT want to read ANYMORE of what I write, then NO one cares. That you were and are Wrong here, which I have ALREADY EXPLAINED and SHOWN HOW and WHY, STILL REMAINS for "others" to LOOK AT and SEE.

That you are NOT ABLE TO back up and support YOUR CLAIM here is of NO REAL concern to me.
Age
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Age »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Sat Jul 16, 2022 7:36 am What is the probability that the other bill remaining in the box you selected is also a $100?
The other bill in the box can only be EITHER a 100 dollar bill or a 1 dollar bill. So, the probability that the other bill is 50 percent.

Why can some people NOT just comprehend, fathom, and understand the beauty of PURE SIMPLICITY?
Skepdick
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Skepdick »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 8:41 am Listen, if you choose to make stupid bets, that's on you lmao. If you choose not to accept infinite money, fine.
Could you please define "stupid" in Mathematics? Thanks.

Stop lying to yourself! You don't accept "infinite money" either.

You are playing a game of compound interest, right? On every round you earn 0.66% of whatever you put in! And you get infinitely many accruals.
So your return on investment is initial-bet * 1.66^infinity.

The more you put in - the more you will get out. So put ALL of your money in every time!

Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 8:41 am For some reason I've been foolish enough to invent a scenario to get some meaningful engagement from you, and you're not interested. Fine, you're not interested in meaningful engagement. You want to derail the conversation literally every chance you get. I'm not gonna try any more for you
None of your engagements are "meaningful". I am getting tired of explaining this to you.

Ideas are meaningful. Things that are pragmatic and applicable to the real world.

What you are doing is meaningless intellectual masturbation.
Flannel Jesus
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Flannel Jesus »

No, skepdick, you said you didn't want to place any bets because you were concerned about an infinite series of wins by the house.

Now, this is actually a good point.

Then, you strayed entirely away from that concern when you said "my betting strategy is to bet everything every time".

If that's you're betting strategy, your strategy doesn't lose because of an infinite, or even very long, string of luck for the house, your betting strategy loses because of just one single win for the house.

You brought up a valid concern, but then you derailed the conversation by deliberately coming up with a betting strategy that doesn't even have that concern, a strategy you came up with for the express purpose of it being a losing strategy.

If you're TRYING to lose, of course you're going to lose. The conversation here isn't me trying to see how creatively you can lose. I gave you descriptions of the rules at the two tables, the idea is for you to decide a winning strategy, not for you to deliberately lose.

Every time anybody ever gives you an option to bet in a hypothetical scenario, you can be pretty sure that they're not asking you to try to lose, they're asking you to try to win! How do you win? Don't tell me the fastest way to lose, it's easy to lose.
Flannel Jesus
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Flannel Jesus »

What's odd is that you said
- I am maximising for remaining in the game for as long as possible.
And yet you chose the single betting strategy that would make sure you play for the least amount of time possible.
Skepdick
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Skepdick »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 11:58 am No, skepdick, you said you didn't want to place any bets because you were concerned about an infinite series of wins by the house.
Of course I am! I have a finite bankroll! The house has to hit only one infinite series of wins and I am done.

What's the probability of that happening if I play infinitely long? The probability is 1! It's an absolute certainty.

Alternatively I have an infinite bank roll to begin with. But then - what's the point of playing?
Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 11:58 am Then, you strayed entirely away from that concern when you said "my betting strategy is to bet everything every time".

If that's you're betting strategy, your strategy doesn't lose because of an infinite, or even very long, string of luck for the house, your betting strategy loses because of just one single win for the house.
Precisely what I am saying!

If I have a finite bankroll my betting strategy loses by just one single infinite winning streak by the house!

The probability of which is 1.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 11:58 am You brought up a valid concern, but then you derailed the conversation by deliberately coming up with a betting strategy that doesn't even have that concern, a strategy you came up with for the express purpose of it being a losing strategy.
Your own strategy is a losing strategy. IF you don't have an infinite bankroll to begin with!

You only have to hit rock bottom once and it's game over.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 11:58 am If you're TRYING to lose, of course you're going to lose. The conversation here isn't me trying to see how creatively you can lose.
I am not trying to lose. The game is rigged! The only winning strategy is to not play.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 11:58 am I gave you descriptions of the rules at the two tables, the idea is for you to decide a winning strategy, not for you to deliberately lose.
OK. What's your winning strategy if your bankroll is finite, but the house is infinite?
Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 11:58 am Every time anybody ever gives you an option to bet in a hypothetical scenario, you can be pretty sure that they're not asking you to try to lose, they're asking you to try to win! How do you win? Don't tell me the fastest way to lose, it's easy to lose.
Such poetry. So much empty, meaningless words.

Please define "win" and "lose" in Mathematics.
Last edited by Skepdick on Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Flannel Jesus
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Flannel Jesus »

You haven't heard my strategy so how do you know mine is losing?

You've deliberately invented a losing strategy and now you're saying the game is rigged
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