A fun little probability puzzle for you.

What is the basis for reason? And mathematics?

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Skepdick
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Skepdick »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 1:19 pm I don't see how that question is relevant to anything
I know that! I keep repeating myself... you don't actually care about ideas.

You are in it for intellectual masturbation completely disconnected from the real world.

That's why you can't see how getting in a car every time is exactly the same thing as betting everything!
Flannel Jesus
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Flannel Jesus »

I haven't asked you to get into a car, I haven't asked you to bet everything, I have no idea how you've shoehorned that into the conversation. You have such a strange pattern of interaction
Skepdick
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Skepdick »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 1:32 pm I haven't asked you to get into a car, I haven't asked you to bet everything, I have no idea how you've shoehorned that into the conversation.
I know! I told you that right at the beginning! You are engaging in intellectual masturbation.

Your scenario is completely disconnected from real-world constraints.

There are too many infinities/free variables. As such - it is undecidable! You know? Decision theory. Halting problem. Computer science. That sort of stuff.

And your optimisation function is unspecified!
Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 1:32 pm You have such a strange pattern of interaction
Indeed, I do! I want to talk about ideas!

I keep having to say that, but my words keep falling on deaf ears.

Almost as if philosophers don't want to talk about ideas!
Age
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Age »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 9:32 am I don't want to read anything you write anymore if I'm being honest. I don't think I'm alone in finding your reliance on the caps lock key quite obnoxious and aggressive. If that's not what you intend to communicate, you should consider changing it up a bit
Here is ANOTHER example of WHY misunderstanding, confusion, and fighting/arguing was very prevalent in the days when this was being written.

Instead of just confirming and clarifying with the "other", what they ACTUAL 'intended to communicate', this one SHOWS what these people used to do. That is; if the "other" is NOT communicating what I want them to, then the "other" is EXPECTED TO CHANGE, until they are.communicating what the listener/reader WANTS. Which the ABSURDITY and RIDICULOUSNESS OF speaks for itself.
Flannel Jesus
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Flannel Jesus »

mAyBe I'lL wRiTe LiKe A tIt ToO tHeN, sHaLl We CoNtInUe OuR cOnVeRsAtIoN wHeRe We LeFt OfF?

õŘ ŵÔũĽḍ ÝôÜ pŖēƑèŖ mƎ ŧÔ ŵŔįṬĕ ĿiĶë ṬĥÌś
Flannel Jesus
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Flannel Jesus »

I recommend you Google "all caps is seen as aggressive".

If you were capitalising a word here and there to emphasize it, it wouldn't look aggressive. It's that you capitalize way too frequently. You can't emphasize EVERYTHING, because that's just shouting. And you can't be surprised that people don't want to be shouted at.
Age
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Age »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Wed Jul 20, 2022 7:48 am mAyBe I'lL wRiTe LiKe A tIt ToO tHeN, sHaLl We CoNtInUe OuR cOnVeRsAtIoN wHeRe We LeFt OfF?
If you WANT TO. Either way I REALLY do NOT care.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Wed Jul 20, 2022 7:48 am õŘ ŵÔũĽḍ ÝôÜ pŖēƑèŖ mƎ ŧÔ ŵŔįṬĕ ĿiĶë ṬĥÌś
You can WRITE absolutely ANY way you like. As long as the words that you want to use are legible, then what does it, REALLY, matter?

After all, the MESSAGES are IN the words, no matter how the words are presented.
Flannel Jesus
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Flannel Jesus »

It matters to me, I don't want to be shouted at. That's all there is to it.

I know you're capable of it, because there was a series of about 5-7 posts from you where you were in a less confrontational context, and you didn't shout in your posts. The fact that you start the all caps stuff when you're in a more confrontational context tells me that I'm actually perceiving your caps lock correctly : I'm perceiving it aggressively, and I think you mean it aggressively.

And if you give it a quick Google, you'll find that that's the normal way to perceive it, which means most people on this forum that you're writing that way too probably also feel like they're being shouted at.

If that were the case, would you care? Would you care that you're creating an experience for them that's obnoxious and stressful when they talk to you?
Age
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Age »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Wed Jul 20, 2022 7:50 am I recommend you Google "all caps is seen as aggressive".
Last time I LOOKED, through an internet search engine, capital letters were just considered 'shouting', and NOT as being 'aggressive'. But then, is ONE so-called 'google' version of things MORE CORRECT, or have MORE WEIGHT over 'another' version.

Also, what happens when capitalizing SOME words is EXPRESSED, and/or SEEN as just ANOTHER FORM of the HIGHLIGHTING of some words for EMPHASIZE?
Flannel Jesus wrote: Wed Jul 20, 2022 7:50 am If you were capitalising a word here and there to emphasize it, it wouldn't look aggressive.
They are ONLY words on a screen in front of you. ANY ASSUMPTION of 'aggressiveness' is COMPLETELY and UTTERLY of your OWN ASSUMING.

There is NEVER intention of 'aggression' NOR of even 'shouting', in ALL of my words. So, if ANY one thinks there is, then that is COMPLETELY and UTTERLY of their OWN DOING.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Wed Jul 20, 2022 7:50 am It's that you capitalize way too frequently.
And one could ALSO say and write; that you DETRACT, way too frequently.

Or that; you do NOT even 'try to' back up and support YOUR CLIAMS, way too frequently.

Or that; you get DISTRACTED, what too frequently.

What 'you' and/or "others" may find that what I DO here, way too frequently, is for a VERY SPECIFIC REASON. So, I have absolutely NO intention of STOPPING it, just because relatively NO one finds I do it, way too frequently.

'Philosophy', or as some might say and call, 'the art of arguing' is, or WAS, meant to be ABOUT 'the words' USED, and NOT ABOUT 'the way' 'words' are being SAID, WRITTEN, nor EXPRESSED. The way words are PRESENTED has NO bearing AT ALL, on the REAL MESSAGE within 'the words'.

Also, being ABLE TO STAY FOCUSED, SOLELY, ON 'the words', themselves,and what they ACTUALLY MEAN or REFER TO, EXACTLY, from the perspective of the one PRESENTING 'the words', INSTEAD of just 'trying to' 'attack the one', who is presenting 'the words', or 'trying to' 'attack the presentation' of 'the words', is some thing that one who REALLY LOOKS FOR, and/or who IS EXPRESSING, 'the' REAL message that is WITHIN 'the words'.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Wed Jul 20, 2022 7:50 am You can't emphasize EVERYTHING, because that's just shouting.
AND, I do NOT emphasize EVERY word, as can be CLEARLY SEEN, because then some people would SEE 'that' as REALLY SHOUTING.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Wed Jul 20, 2022 7:50 am And you can't be surprised that people don't want to be shouted at.
BUT, I am NOT shouting.

AND, if ANY ASSUMES I AM, then this is just ANOTHER and MORE Wrong ASSUMPTIONS of theirs.

To who, I suggest that they GAIN CLARITY, BEFORE they ASSUME absolutely ANY thing AT ALL. That way they will NOT be SO Wrong, SO OFTEN.
Flannel Jesus
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Flannel Jesus »

Well, in that case I just don't want to talk to you. Reading your posts is just too unpleasant. I'd gladly engage with your disagreements and your reasons for them, but I just find it a genuinely painful experience reading the way you write.

It's a shame, because it's obvious that you're capable of not leaning on that caps lock so hard.
Age
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Age »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Wed Jul 20, 2022 9:25 am It matters to me, I don't want to be shouted at. That's all there is to it.
You do NOT quote ANY one, but start your sentence with the 'It' word.

Now, if one was to LOOK BACK over what was written BEFORE this post of yours here, they might ASSUME that the 'it' word here is referring to my sentence and question;

You can WRITE absolutely ANY way you like. As long as the words that you want to use are legible, then what does it, REALLY, matter?

Now, IF this is what you are referring to here, then NO one asked you about whether, 'it matters to you or not'.

I, however, specifically asked the CLARIFYING question,

As long as the words that you, [or ANY one else], wants to use are legible, then what does it, REALLY, matter?

If you would now like to ANSWER this ACTUAL QUESTION, then please feel FREE to.

ONCE AGAIN, I am NOT 'shouting' AT YOU. And ANY ASSUMPTION that I AM is ALL of your VERY OWN DOING.

Also, when you wrote; "That's all there is to it", then what does the 'it' word here, and at the start of your post here, refer to, EXACTLY?
Flannel Jesus wrote: Wed Jul 20, 2022 9:25 am I know you're capable of it,
You, supposedly, KNOW that I am capable of 'what', EXACTLY?

The MORE you USE the 'it' word, the MORE I do NOT know what you are referring to, EXACTLY.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Wed Jul 20, 2022 9:25 am because there was a series of about 5-7 posts from you where you were in a less confrontational context, and you didn't shout in your posts.
ONCE MORE, I am NOT 'shouting' in my posts, and NEVER have 'shouted' in my posts here.

And, ANY ASSUMPTION otherwise is just plain Wrong AND Incorrect.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Wed Jul 20, 2022 9:25 am The fact that you start the all caps stuff when you're in a more confrontational context tells me that I'm actually perceiving your caps lock correctly : I'm perceiving it aggressively, and I think you mean it aggressively.
You are absolutely FREE to think AND perceive absolutely ANY way you like. But have you EVER been Wrong BEFORE?

If yes, then could you be here, now?

If no, then are you SURE?
Flannel Jesus wrote: Wed Jul 20, 2022 9:25 am And if you give it a quick Google, you'll find that that's the normal way to perceive it,
So, if I so-call "google it", and I find a different way to perceive 'it', then that IS 'the normal way', right?

Also, EVERY time you call 'it' 'all caps', you are expressing 'it' Wrongly.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Wed Jul 20, 2022 9:25 am which means most people on this forum that you're writing that way too probably also feel like they're being shouted at.
I do NOT care.

I have ALSO INFORMED some of them, ALREADY, that I am NOT shouting. BUT, if 'you' or ANY one else wants to CONTINUE 'feel' like I AM, then please feel FREE to continue doing so. But just be forewarned that the way you are 'feeling' is based on your OWN Wrong ASSUMPTIONS.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Wed Jul 20, 2022 9:25 am If that were the case, would you care?
NO.

1. The VERY SPECIFIC REASON WHY I write, the way I do, is to SHOW and PRESENT how the people in the days when this was being would, continually, MAKE ASSUMPTIONS, and base the way that they THEN 'think' AND 'feel' on those ASSUMPTIONS, which could have been, and sometimes CLEARLY ARE, absolutely False, Wrong, and/or Incorrect. I am SHOWING with ACTUAL PROOF just how OFTEN and how MUCH 'you', people, would ASSUME 'things', and BELIEVE them to be true, even when they are OBVIOUSLY NOT. As I am CLEARLY SHOWING and PROVING here now.

2. The way 'you', the adult human being, 'thinks' AND 'feels' is ALL of your OWN responsibility. This is BECAUSE the way 'you' 'think' AND 'feel', at EVERY moment, is SOLELY based upon your OWN previous 'thoughts', ASSUMPTIONS, or BELIEFS. If you 'feel' the way 'you' do BECAUSE of your OWN Wrong ASSUMPTIONS, then I do NOT care one iota. Especially considering the ACTUAL Fact that I have been TELLING and INFORMING 'you' of what thee ACTUAL Truth IS, EXACTLY. If you CHOOSE to NOT LISTEN, to me, then WHY should I care how 'you' 'feel', especially when you do NOT believe me, BELIEVE that I am LYING, and are ASSUMING what is ACTUALLY False, Wrong, and Incorrect/
Flannel Jesus wrote: Wed Jul 20, 2022 9:25 am Would you care that you're creating an experience for them that's obnoxious and stressful when they talk to you?
NO.

For ANOTHER reason, my audience is NOT the ones who make Wrong ASSUMPTIONS here.

If you are Truly INTERESTED 'I' am USING 'you', posters here, for My TARGETED audience.

Oh, and by the way, HOW LONG, EXACTLY, do you want to just LOOK AT and TALK ABOUT the way I capitalize just SOME words?

Would you like to go back and TALK ABOUT or DISCUSS the Fact that I SAY and CLAIM that the 'probability' is 50%, whereas you SAY and CLAIM that the 'probability' is NOT 50%?

If you would like to, then what 'evidence' or 'proof' do you have for your CLAIM here?
Age
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Age »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Wed Jul 20, 2022 9:52 am Well, in that case I just don't want to talk to you. Reading your posts is just too unpleasant. I'd gladly engage with your disagreements and your reasons for them, but I just find it a genuinely painful experience reading the way you write.
You may well be a VERY WEAK being, and do, GENUINELY, get FULL of PAIN by JUST reading SOME of my words that are written in capital letters, and if this, EXCUSE, is what you want to USE to RUN AWAY, and NOT engage with my DISAGREEMENT of your CLAIM, then so be it.

Some people will 'try to' USE ANY thing or EXCUSE, in order to just RUN AWAY, and NOT STAY, and 'try' and fight or argue for what they SAY and CLAIM.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Wed Jul 20, 2022 9:25 am It's a shame, because it's obvious that you're capable of not leaning on that caps lock so hard.
Here is ANOTHER example of ANOTHER Wrong ASSUMPTION.

As I have ALREADY EXPLAINED, I do NOT use the 'caps lock' function.

How MANY ASSUMPTIONS, are 'you', people, going to MAKE, and USE, BEFORE 'you' REALIZE that it would be MUCH MORE BENEFICIAL, for ALL of 'us', for 'you' to just CLARIFY things, in the FIRST place.

Otherwise, if 'you' ASSUME it can just make an ASS out of U, and ME.

BUT, if you just do NOT want to talk TO me, then just GO and RUN AWAY.
Flannel Jesus
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Flannel Jesus »

Image
Flannel Jesus
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Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2022 7:09 pm

Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Flannel Jesus »

Age wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 9:53 am
Flannel Jesus wrote: Sat Jul 16, 2022 7:36 am What is the probability that the other bill remaining in the box you selected is also a $100?
The other bill in the box can only be EITHER a 100 dollar bill or a 1 dollar bill. So, the probability that the other bill is 50 percent.

Why can some people NOT just comprehend, fathom, and understand the beauty of PURE SIMPLICITY?
Age, this is the topic here.

You think the probability is 50% of the next bill is $100, and I think it's 2/3, 66.6..%
Age
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Age »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Mon Jul 25, 2022 9:14 am
Age wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 9:53 am
Flannel Jesus wrote: Sat Jul 16, 2022 7:36 am What is the probability that the other bill remaining in the box you selected is also a $100?
The other bill in the box can only be EITHER a 100 dollar bill or a 1 dollar bill. So, the probability that the other bill is 50 percent.

Why can some people NOT just comprehend, fathom, and understand the beauty of PURE SIMPLICITY?
Age, this is the topic here.

You think the probability is 50% of the next bill is $100, and I think it's 2/3, 66.6..%
Okay.

We have one box, and within it is one bill, which could either be a $100 bill or a $1 bill. So, how exactly could the probability be anything different to 50% that the next bill in that box is a $100 bill?
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