A fun little probability puzzle for you.

What is the basis for reason? And mathematics?

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Age
Posts: 20194
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Age »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 2:04 am I'm starting to think maybe you're not fully comfortable with the english language. Is english not your native language?
No.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 2:04 am Is that why you talk like this all the time?
Like what?
Flannel Jesus wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 2:04 amIs that why you're so opaque about your thoughts and you can't directly respond to requests for clarity?
No.

When one reads back they can see very clearly that I have been answering the ACTUAL questions posed to me directly and very clearly.

That you and others make assumptions and jump to wrong conclusions is nothing to do with me.

Even in this reply you will make assumptions and jump to false, wrong, or incorrect conclusions. Which, by the way, I will prove true further down the track.
Age
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Age »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 2:15 am Considering that you didn't engage honestly for your half of the conversation, the experiment never began.
But I did engage very honestly. You have, once again, just made another wrong assumption and jumped to another wrong conclusion on what I have said, without EVER beginning to just seek clarification first here.

What I said was;
'But a purpose of mine for being in this forum is not to make things absolutely clear, at first.'

Which does NOT mean what you said and claimed here. If you EVER seek clarity, then you will see and understand what thee actual Truth is, and thus also see things much differently.

I have NEVER once been dishonest. I can also back up and support absolutely every thing that I have said and claimed in this thread. Just like in every other thread I just wait for the correct questions to be asked.

When and if one is Truly OPEN and Truly CURIOS, then those questions will come in, 'thick and fast', as some would say.

I am certainly in no rush to expose and reveal what thee actual Truth is, exactly.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 2:15 am You're a troll, and it's only coming to light now that you've been trolling the entire time.
If I recall correctly I have asked you what a 'troll' is, to you. We still await your answer
Flannel Jesus wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 2:15 am I've asked you for clarity countless times, and you're now revealing that you've *deliberately withheld clarity from the conversation* as some sort of sick test.
LOL I have NEVER revealed any such thing. Your conclusion here is wrong, once more, and this is just more PROOF of you making assumptions and jumping to the conclusion of 'things', BEFORE obtaining clarification of what thee actual Truth is first.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 2:15 am You're a moron.
Okay.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 2:15 am Maybe I'm a bigger moron for giving you a chance.
But you are never expected to KNOW things BEFORE you are informed of them.
bobmax
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by bobmax »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 2:15 am Considering that you didn't engage honestly for your half of the conversation, the experiment never began. You're a troll, and it's only coming to light now that you've been trolling the entire time. I've asked you for clarity countless times, and you're now revealing that you've *deliberately withheld clarity from the conversation* as some sort of sick test.

You're a moron. Maybe I'm a bigger moron for giving you a chance.
Great is your faith in the Truth.
That pushes you forward trying to clarify.
And this requires commitment and perseverance.

However, the path you take does not only require you to overcome the difficulties of clarification.
Because something else you have to face.

That is, not only the effort is needed to persevere in clarifying what must necessarily be rational, there is also the nonsense to face.

Rightly in the face of nonsense we try to suppose a reason for it anyway (troll, moron ...) but the horror remains.

This horror is not just something to be exorcised, because it is due only to our ignorance.
This horror is also an opportunity to decide who we are.

The search for Truth is the search for ourselves.
Flannel Jesus
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Flannel Jesus »

It is a horror indeed bobmax. Age is a type of troll I didn't even know existed: a troll who's convinced he's not one.
bobmax
Posts: 596
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2022 7:38 am

Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by bobmax »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 7:34 am It is a horror indeed bobmax. Age is a type of troll I didn't even know existed: a troll who's convinced he's not one.
It may or may not be.
It is difficult to understand to what extent there is unawareness.

It is an abyss where the true and the false merge.

But that abyss concerns us, it stares at us with the eyes of Medusa.
Because it is the possibility that shakes us deeply.

Only denying it, with all our strength, we really are.
To be or not to be.
Age
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Age »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 7:34 am It is a horror indeed bobmax. Age is a type of troll I didn't even know existed: a troll who's convinced he's not one.
'you', "flannel jesus", is the one who will clarify here. 'you' are yet to inform us of what a 'troll' is to you exactly, but then go straight into accusing me of being convinced that I am not a 'troll'.

1. I have never said such a thing.

2. I am trying to ascertain from you what a 'troll' is exactly.

3. Until you do I obviously can not say whether I am one or not.

4. You are doing here the actual thing you accuse me of doing.

5. I have already explained in detail what a 'troll' is to me and have shown how this was exactly what you were doing here.
Flannel Jesus
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Flannel Jesus »

Your goal in conversation is directly contrary to my goal, age. I care about clarity, and you care about confusing the conversation by deliberately creating unclarity, and then insulting me when I don't think it's clear.

There's no point in me talking to you, because I consider your root approach to conversations as fundamentally trolling. If you are deliberately choosing to not be clear, you are a troll as far as I'm concerned.

It turns out there's more layers of communication problems with you on top of your incessant need to capitalize every word.
Age
Posts: 20194
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2018 8:17 am

Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Age »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Aug 16, 2022 12:57 pm Your goal in conversation is directly contrary to my goal, age. I care about clarity, and you care about confusing the conversation by deliberately creating unclarity, and then insulting me when I don't think it's clear.
1. I NEVER insulted you. Whereabouts do you think or BELIEVE that I have 'insulted' you?

2. I care more about clarity than you, as can be clearly seen, just here in this thread, let alone throughout this forum, by that actual amount of correctly posed questions I have asked for clarity, compared to you.

3. I have NEVER deliberately created confusion, NOR so-called 'unclarity'.

4. To make it absolutely clear, I just write in a way so that only those who are Truly OPEN and Truly CURIOS will ever find out what I actually mean, in what I say and write here. The reason and purpose I do this for I have already explained.

5. Unlike you I HAVE clarified the actual questions posed to me.

6. If you really want to know what I actually mean, then you will just ask the right questions, and in the right and correct way as well.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Aug 16, 2022 12:57 pm There's no point in me talking to you, because I consider your root approach to conversations as fundamentally trolling. If you are deliberately choosing to not be clear, you are a troll as far as I'm concerned.
Okay. Are you aware that to other this is not 'trolling' at all?

Also, 'clear' is very relative. As you have just shown here and proved true.

Furthermore, it could be construed that you are somewhat angry or upset because your 66% or 2/3 answer was not as clear cut as you so how's it was. You had already been informed by another poster what I was pointing out here, you just did not want to listen to them and accept this fact as well.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Tue Aug 16, 2022 12:57 pm It turns out there's more layers of communication problems with you on top of your incessant need to capitalize every word.
As can be clearly seen capitalized words was never really the issue.

Now, you write for your reasons and I write for mine, which are not necessarily the same. My target audience is probably far different than yours as well.
Flannel Jesus
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Flannel Jesus »

Thanks troll. Nice talking to you.
popeye1945
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by popeye1945 »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Sat Jul 16, 2022 7:36 am Don't look up the answer or read further, try to solve it yourself first.

I present to you 4 USD bills, 1 $1 bill and 3 $100 bills. I then tell you I'm going to put 2 of these bills in one box, and the other 2 in another box - I shut a curtain and do so out of your sight. I then present you with the two boxes.

So, in front of you now are 2 boxes, both apparently identical from the outside, but one has a $1 and a $100 in it, and the other has a $100 and another $100 in it. You don't know which one is which.

Now I say, you may choose a box, so you do so - I put the other box away. I now say, reach inside and grab one of the bills inside the box. You do so, and you find that you've selected a $100.

What is the probability that the other bill remaining in the box you selected is also a $100?
The same as it was before.
Flannel Jesus
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Flannel Jesus »

popeye1945 wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 2:57 am The same as it was before.
3/4?
popeye1945
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by popeye1945 »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 5:17 am
popeye1945 wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 2:57 am The same as it was before.
3/4?
I didn't no what the odds were to begin what, but withdrawing the hundred didn't change anything.
Last edited by popeye1945 on Sat Oct 08, 2022 9:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
Flannel Jesus
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Flannel Jesus »

popeye1945 wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 9:04 am I didn't no what the odds were to begin what, but withdrawing the hundred did change anything.
The way you've phrased it puts us in an odd situation. See, the odds of any particular bill being a $100, before pulling any bill out of any box, is 3/4. There's 4 bills, and 3 of them are $100. So if you're saying the odds that this particular bill is a $100 is the same before and after pulling the first bill out and seeing that that one is $100, there's naturally gonna be some problems with that.

I mean, for one thing, there's one less bill in play, so at the very least that should change the odds from 3/4 to something else. Don't you think?

Withdrawing a $100 changes a lot!
popeye1945
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by popeye1945 »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 9:11 am
popeye1945 wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 9:04 am I didn't no what the odds were to begin what, but withdrawing the hundred did change anything.
The way you've phrased it puts us in an odd situation. See, the odds of any particular bill being a $100, before pulling any bill out of any box, is 3/4. There's 4 bills, and 3 of them are $100. So if you're saying the odds that this particular bill is a $100 is the same before and after pulling the first bill out and seeing that that one is $100, there's naturally gonna be some problems with that.

I mean, for one thing, there's one less bill in play, so at the very least that should change the odds from 3/4 to something else. Don't you think?

Withdrawing a $100 changes a lot!
Flannel,

Interesting, the odds of pulling a hundred out are now 50/50, for in either box there is only one hundred dollar bill, the fact that one box has a one dollar bill, as well as a hundred in it, changes nothing. I am not great at math but seem right to me. Correction, not as easy as I thought, because just maybe there is only a one dollar bill in one of the boxes in which case, there are still two, two hundred dollar bills in the other. You got me! I'll take a shot in the dark and say 50/50.
Flannel Jesus
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Flannel Jesus »

We simulated the experiment thousands of times - skepdick posted some code on the second page of the thread and I translated it to javascript here:

https://jsfiddle.net/hbxnj850/1/

The most intuitive answer for most people is 50/50, but bayes theorem and this code point towards 2/3.
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