A fun little probability puzzle for you.

What is the basis for reason? And mathematics?

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Age
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Age »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 3:43 pm
Age wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 3:40 pm
Flannel Jesus wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 3:31 pm

I don't think I am assuming. I think I'm just paraphrasing what you wrote here:
Well you are not. As can be clearly seen and proved by the actual words that have been used.
This is turning into a silly game. I'm not interested in the silly game. If you think my paraphrasing is incorrect, you can explain why it's incorrect. But instead of doing that, you want to start silly games.
Here we have another example of another assumption, which is completely wrong and incorrect.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 3:43 pm My paraphrasing was honest, so if you think there's something incorrect about it, point it out or end the conversation.
Being honest does not necessarily make you correct.

What is correct is that the probability is and remains 50/50, but this is not necessarily what I would say after I picked the blue ball.
Flannel Jesus
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Flannel Jesus »

It remains 50/50, but you wouldn't say it remains 50/50?

This sounds like another silly game.
bobmax
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Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2022 7:38 am

Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by bobmax »

Age wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 2:52 pm Will you explain more in relation to what 'faith in the Truth' consists of exactly?
Faith in the Truth consists in believing that the Truth is, but aware of not being able to possess it.

It is therefore acceptance of the unavoidable risk that all our "truths" may later turn out to be falsehoods.

And nevertheless to advance in the search for the Truth.
Always with the doubt of having taken the wrong direction.

Even simple rational thinking requires, by its very clarity, our faith in the Truth.
Because nothing we think is ever absolutely certain.

From what you say you don't seem to have faith in the Truth.
Age
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Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2018 8:17 am

Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Age »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 3:50 pm It remains 50/50, but you wouldn't say it remains 50/50?

This sounds like another silly game.
It could also be said that you not clarifying things is another 'silly game'.

You were the one that wanted to have this conversation but when you are asked for clarity, at times you will not provide any, so what are you afraid of here exactly?

Also what sounds like ..., is not necessarily so.
Age
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Age »

bobmax wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 8:03 pm
Age wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 2:52 pm Will you explain more in relation to what 'faith in the Truth' consists of exactly?
Faith in the Truth consists in believing that the Truth is, but aware of not being able to possess it.
But if this was actually True, then there is no need for believing in this. This would be what is just actually True, and thus also irrefutably True as well.

Belief and believing is only used when one is not yet sure.

You believe there is a Truth that you are not able to possess it, correct?

bobmax wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 8:03 pm It is therefore acceptance of the unavoidable risk that all our "truths" may later turn out to be falsehoods.
Why would you call them 'truths', if they may later turn out to be 'falsehoods' anyway?

bobmax wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 8:03 pm And nevertheless to advance in the search for the Truth.
But you are of the belief that you can never ever find and possess the Truth, so why even bother searching for It?
bobmax wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 8:03 pm Always with the doubt of having taken the wrong direction.
If you have not yet found out what the actual Truth is exactly, then you have obviously taken the wrong direction.

Obviously once you have found thee Truth, then you KNOW that you are going in the Right direction.
bobmax wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 8:03 pm Even simple rational thinking requires, by its very clarity, our faith in the Truth.
Your version of 'faith in the Truth', to me, is a very distorted and wrong version, and obviously one arrived at from you taking the Wrong direction and staying in that direction.
bobmax wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 8:03 pm Because nothing we think is ever absolutely certain.
OBVIOUSLY.
bobmax wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 8:03 pm From what you say you don't seem to have faith in the Truth.
This is very True.

To make it absolutely clear, I certainly do NOT have NOR use your version of 'faith in the Truth'.
Flannel Jesus
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Flannel Jesus »

Age wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 12:38 am
Flannel Jesus wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 3:50 pm It remains 50/50, but you wouldn't say it remains 50/50?

This sounds like another silly game.
It could also be said that you not clarifying things is another 'silly game'.

You were the one that wanted to have this conversation but when you are asked for clarity, at times you will not provide any, so what are you afraid of here exactly?

Also what sounds like ..., is not necessarily so.
I've been focused on getting clarity from you, because you've said some very strange and contradictory things that needed ironing out. You seem unwilling or incapable of ironing them out, so I guess that's the end of that. You must just literally believe that the grains of sand example is 50/50, that's the implication of everything you've said.

As for my answer to the 50 balls example, it's very simple, because it's entirely consistent with my approach to the other examples:
If you have 2 bags in front of you, and one has 50 blue balls, and the other has 1 blue ball and 49 red balls, and you choose a bag blindly, and you reach into it blindly and pull out a ball, and that ball is blue, what is the probability that you chose the bag full of blue balls? Is it 50/50, or is it some other probability?
there are 51 ways to have chosen a blue ball, and 50 of those ways are from the bag full of blue balls, so the probability that you've picked the bag full of blue balls is 50/51, which is approximately 98%.
bobmax
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by bobmax »

Age wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 12:51 am
bobmax wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 8:03 pm From what you say you don't seem to have faith in the Truth.
This is very True.

To make it absolutely clear, I certainly do NOT have NOR use your version of 'faith in the Truth'.
This is why it is not possible to communicate rationally with you.

There are other ways of communicating that could awaken faith in the Truth in you.
But at least for the moment, these don't seem to scratch your wall either.

Perhaps life will take care of it.
Age
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Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2018 8:17 am

Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Age »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 7:19 am
Age wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 12:38 am
Flannel Jesus wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 3:50 pm It remains 50/50, but you wouldn't say it remains 50/50?

This sounds like another silly game.
It could also be said that you not clarifying things is another 'silly game'.

You were the one that wanted to have this conversation but when you are asked for clarity, at times you will not provide any, so what are you afraid of here exactly?

Also what sounds like ..., is not necessarily so.
I've been focused on getting clarity from you, because you've said some very strange and contradictory things that needed ironing out. You seem unwilling or incapable of ironing them out, so I guess that's the end of that. You must just literally believe that the grains of sand example is 50/50, that's the implication of everything you've said.
But I do NOT believe that AT ALL.

But if that is what you want to believe, and if you want believe that I am incapable of ironing out what appears strange and contradictory to you, then so be it. But, if anyone else would like to be clear up any confusion or anything that appears strange and or contradictory, then please feel free to ask me any questions at all regarding this.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 7:19 am As for my answer to the 50 balls example, it's very simple, because it's entirely consistent with my approach to the other examples:
If you have 2 bags in front of you, and one has 50 blue balls, and the other has 1 blue ball and 49 red balls, and you choose a bag blindly, and you reach into it blindly and pull out a ball, and that ball is blue, what is the probability that you chose the bag full of blue balls? Is it 50/50, or is it some other probability?
there are 51 ways to have chosen a blue ball, and 50 of those ways are from the bag full of blue balls, so the probability that you've picked the bag full of blue balls is 50/51, which is approximately 98%.
Okay.

So, would you say that you picked the bag full of blue balls?
Age
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Age »

bobmax wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 8:20 am
Age wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 12:51 am
bobmax wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 8:03 pm From what you say you don't seem to have faith in the Truth.
This is very True.

To make it absolutely clear, I certainly do NOT have NOR use your version of 'faith in the Truth'.
This is why it is not possible to communicate rationally with you.

There are other ways of communicating that could awaken faith in the Truth in you.
But at least for the moment, these don't seem to scratch your wall either.

Perhaps life will take care of it.
So, are you saying and meaning that if "another" does not accept and agree with the version you use for words, or in other words does not agree with and accept the definition you personally have and use for words or terms, then this makes it IMPOSSIBLE for you to communicate rationally with them?

If yes, then okay.

But if no, then WHY when I do it, this is makes is IMPOSSIBLE for you to communicate rationally with me?
Flannel Jesus
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Flannel Jesus »

Age wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 9:18 am
Flannel Jesus wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 7:19 am
Age wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 12:38 am

It could also be said that you not clarifying things is another 'silly game'.

You were the one that wanted to have this conversation but when you are asked for clarity, at times you will not provide any, so what are you afraid of here exactly?

Also what sounds like ..., is not necessarily so.
I've been focused on getting clarity from you, because you've said some very strange and contradictory things that needed ironing out. You seem unwilling or incapable of ironing them out, so I guess that's the end of that. You must just literally believe that the grains of sand example is 50/50, that's the implication of everything you've said.
But I do NOT believe that AT ALL.
So why aren't you taking the opportunities to clarify your beliefs?

You believe it's 50/50 for the original scenario. You believe it's 50/50 for the 2 bags of 50 balls example. At what point does it stop being 50/50?

2 blue vs 1 blue 1 red (you say 50/50)
3 blue Vs 1 blue 2 red (you say 50/50)
...
50 blue Vs 1 blue 49 red (you say 50/50)
...
1000000 blue Vs 1 blue 999999 red. (you say it's not 50/50 - this is effectively the grains of sand example)


Why is it not 50/50? It's literally just a more exaggerated example of the previous scenario, there's just more balls (or grains of sand). At what point does it stop being 50/50 and why?
So, would you say that you picked the bag full of blue balls?
I would say, after selecting a blue ball, that there's a 98% chance I have the bag of blue balls.
Age
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Age »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 9:36 am
Age wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 9:18 am
Flannel Jesus wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 7:19 am
I've been focused on getting clarity from you, because you've said some very strange and contradictory things that needed ironing out. You seem unwilling or incapable of ironing them out, so I guess that's the end of that. You must just literally believe that the grains of sand example is 50/50, that's the implication of everything you've said.
But I do NOT believe that AT ALL.
So why aren't you taking the opportunities to clarify your beliefs?
Because I do not have ANY beliefs.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 9:36 am You believe it's 50/50 for the original scenario.
Wrong.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 9:36 am You believe it's 50/50 for the 2 bags of 50 balls example.
Wrong.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 9:36 am At what point does it stop being 50/50?
When 'your thinking' CHANGES.

And when that IS you have ALREADY SHOWN, when you answered my questions posed to you.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 9:36 am 2 blue vs 1 blue 1 red (you say 50/50)
3 blue Vs 1 blue 2 red (you say 50/50)
...
50 blue Vs 1 blue 49 red (you say 50/50)
I have ALREADY INFORMED you that I have NOT said that.

ONLY 'you' are SAYING this.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 9:36 am ...
1000000 blue Vs 1 blue 999999 red. (you say it's not 50/50 - this is effectively the grains of sand example)
You are Wrong, AGAIN.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 9:36 am Why is it not 50/50? It's literally just a more exaggerated example of the previous scenario, there's just more balls (or grains of sand). At what point does it stop being 50/50 and why?
AGAIN, when you CHANGE 'it'.

You are the one who SAID that 'it' WAS 50/50, and then CHANGED to 2/3, in your box/bill example.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 9:36 am
So, would you say that you picked the bag full of blue balls?
I would say, after selecting a blue ball, that there's a 98% chance I have the bag of blue balls.
Okay, but you could be 100% wrong, correct?
Flannel Jesus
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Flannel Jesus »

Age wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 11:24 am
Flannel Jesus wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 9:36 am You believe it's 50/50 for the 2 bags of 50 balls example.
Wrong.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 9:36 am 2 blue vs 1 blue 1 red (you say 50/50)
3 blue Vs 1 blue 2 red (you say 50/50)
...
50 blue Vs 1 blue 49 red (you say 50/50)
I have ALREADY INFORMED you that I have NOT said that.
If I have 2 bags in front of me, and one has 50 blue balls, and the other has 1 blue ball and 49 red balls, and I choose a bag blindly, and I reach into it blindly and pull out a ball, and that ball is blue, then what the probability that I chose the bag full of blue balls is 50/50
Age wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 3:48 pm What is correct is that the probability is and remains 50/50
Listen, if you're not willing to make your own statements and position clear, then there's no point continuing. I don't really want to talk to someone who says "the probability is and remains 50/50", and then when I quote them they say "I have ALREADY INFORMED you that I have NOT said that". It's literally bullshit. You're just lying now. I don't want to continue with you. You can't keep your story straight, you have no desire to make anything clear. You're just trolling.

You're literally clearly saying it's 50/50 over and over again, and then denying it over and over again.
Age
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Age »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 11:35 am
Age wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 11:24 am
Flannel Jesus wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 9:36 am You believe it's 50/50 for the 2 bags of 50 balls example.
Wrong.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 9:36 am 2 blue vs 1 blue 1 red (you say 50/50)
3 blue Vs 1 blue 2 red (you say 50/50)
...
50 blue Vs 1 blue 49 red (you say 50/50)
I have ALREADY INFORMED you that I have NOT said that.
If I have 2 bags in front of me, and one has 50 blue balls, and the other has 1 blue ball and 49 red balls, and I choose a bag blindly, and I reach into it blindly and pull out a ball, and that ball is blue, then what the probability that I chose the bag full of blue balls is 50/50
Age wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 3:48 pm What is correct is that the probability is and remains 50/50
Listen, if you're not willing to make your own statements and position clear, then there's no point continuing.
Listen, if you STOP conflating my OWN statements and STOP keep making ASSUMPTIONS about what you think my OWN statements are saying, then you will ALREADY KNOW what my ACTUAL position is exactly.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 11:35 am I don't really want to talk to someone who says "the probability is and remains 50/50", and then when I quote them they say "I have ALREADY INFORMED you that I have NOT said that".
But I did say 'that'.

It was the other 'thing', which you said that I said, that I had ALREADY INFORMED you that I had NOT said 'that'.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 11:35 am It's literally bullshit.
What is literally 'bullshit'.

And, there are only WORDS in front of you here. So, there is, literally, ONLY 'words' and NO 'bullshit' here.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 11:35 am You're just lying now.
If you look back and read SLOWLY and PRECISELY, then you will SEE that I have NOT lied absolutely anywhere here.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 11:35 am I don't want to continue with you.
Okay.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 11:35 am You can't keep your story straight, you have no desire to make anything clear. You're just trolling.
I answered EVERY question you asked. I have NEVER 'strayed'. And, if you are CONFUSED and can NOT see things clearly here, that is all my fault, correct?
Flannel Jesus wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 11:35 am You're literally clearly saying it's 50/50 over and over again, and then denying it over and over again.
Is this what 'I' am CLEARLY saying and doing here, to 'you'?

Let us NOT forget that it was 'you', "flannel jesus", who said when you picked the boxes it WAS 50/50, but then when you picked a $100 bill, THEN you deny it IS 50/50, and say it IS 2/3.
Flannel Jesus
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Flannel Jesus »

You've shonw yourself incapable of having a good faith discussion. You cannot even make a claim and then stick to it. Perhaps you're afraid of being shown to be wrong if you stand by your claims clearly. Perhaps you don't care if you're wrong or right, because you don't care about the conversation at all, and you're just a troll. You've had so many opportunities to clarify your position, and it's always a back and forth between "it's 50/50" and "I neveR sAiD IT waS 50/50.

I'm not interested in that silly baby crap, Age. You're either too cowardly to stand by your beliefs, or you're too much of a troll to have any.
Age
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Re: A fun little probability puzzle for you.

Post by Age »

Flannel Jesus wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 11:57 am You've shonw yourself incapable of having a good faith discussion. You cannot even make a claim and then stick to it.
But I have NEVER strayed. No matter how many times you want to BELIEVE otherwise.

It was you said the probability WAS 50/50 but could NOT stick to this.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 11:57 am Perhaps you're afraid of being shown to be wrong if you stand by your claims clearly.
But I have agreed WITH you.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 11:57 am Perhaps you don't care if you're wrong or right, because you don't care about the conversation at all, and you're just a troll.
What is a 'troll' to you?

You started this thread, threw the line out, with a topic title, the hook, and written in a particular way, baited, to see what you can catch.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 11:57 am You've had so many opportunities to clarify your position, and it's always a back and forth between "it's 50/50" and "I neveR sAiD IT waS 50/50.
WHEN you pick 2 boxes it IS 50/50, and that REMAINS ALWAYS THE SAME.

AFTER you pick A bill, then you CHANGE the probability.

How much MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD and CLEAR do you want me to BE, BEFORE you can COMPREHEND and UNDERSTAND?

LOOK AT the ACTUAL WORDS I have SAID and USED here PLEASE.
Flannel Jesus wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 11:57 am I'm not interested in that silly baby crap, Age. You're either too cowardly to stand by your beliefs, or you're too much of a troll to have any.
1. I do NOT have ANY beliefs. So, OBVIOUSLY, I can NOT stand by what I do NOT have.

2. By my definition of 'troll', and what you STARTED here, I am the one who is NOT 'the troll'. WHY start a thread and write the title, "A fun little probability puzzle for you"? WHY NOT just SAY and STATE the probability IS 66% or 2/3, and there is NOTHING any one says that will show me otherwise?

3. What 'silly baby crap' are you actually referring to EXACTLY? From my perspective it is ONLY what you ASSUME and IMAGINE I am saying, that i OBVIOUSLY AM NOT, is the only 'silly' so-called "baby crap" here.
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