The 6th Mass Extinction as Ice caps both north and south are melting.

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Harbal
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Re: The 6th Mass Extinction as Ice caps both north and south are melting.

Post by Harbal »

Gary Childress wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:10 pm Do you think we'll survive a mass extinction?
Sorry to be pedantic, but if anyone survives it, it won't be an extinction. :|
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Re: The 6th Mass Extinction as Ice caps both north and south are melting.

Post by Gary Childress »

Harbal wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:22 pm
Gary Childress wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:10 pm Do you think we'll survive a mass extinction?
Sorry to be pedantic, but if anyone survives it, it won't be an extinction. :|
A "Mass extinction" refers to the extinction of many individual species. Not necessarily all species. Do I really need to explain that to you, Harbal? Come on, man.
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Immanuel Can
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Re: The 6th Mass Extinction as Ice caps both north and south are melting.

Post by Immanuel Can »

Gary Childress wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:18 pm ...stuff like this is certainly not encouraging.
Well, yeah, Gary...neither is stuff that says WW3 is coming "encouraging." The stuff that predicts more plagues isn't "encouraging." Fears of inteplanetary collision are not particularly "encouraging." Invasions from Mars...very "discouraging." There are no end of doomsayers...some plausible, but far more extreme and a some even lunatic.

I'm just saying, Gary, just because somebody has a doomsday scenario doesn't mean you need to get your undies in a bunch. Most of that stuff turns out to be complete tommyrot.

Remember when they were predicting worldwide computer collapse at Y2K? How about "the population bomb?" What about "nuclear armageddon"? You remember all those things?

Stay cool. Go with the good data, and don't get wired about things you can't change anyway. The future never turns out to be what the doomsayers predict.

We do know the globe is warming somewhat. But it's slow. We don't know if it has much to do with us. We don't know if we can do anything to change it, or how much, or how fast. But one thing for sure: unless we have very good, hard-data science in place, we'd be very stupid to try, if this is as big a problem as the doomsayers want us to think. If we can't afford to get the equation wrong, we can't afford panic and overreaction either.
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Harbal
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Re: The 6th Mass Extinction as Ice caps both north and south are melting.

Post by Harbal »

Gary Childress wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:26 pm

Do I really need to explain that to you, Harbal?
Yes you do, Gary, because I want as much reassurance as possible that I won't become extinct.
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Re: The 6th Mass Extinction as Ice caps both north and south are melting.

Post by Gary Childress »

Immanuel Can wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:26 pm
Gary Childress wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:18 pm ...stuff like this is certainly not encouraging.
Well, yeah, Gary...neither is stuff that says WW3 is coming "encouraging." The stuff that predicts more plagues isn't "encouraging." Fears of inteplanetary collision are not particularly "encouraging." Invasions from Mars...very "discouraging." There are no end of doomsayers...some plausible, but far more extreme and a some even lunatic.

I'm just saying, Gary, just because somebody has a doomsday scenario doesn't mean you need to get your undies in a bunch. Most of that stuff turns out to be complete tommyrot.

Remember when they were predicting worldwide computer collapse at Y2K? How about "the population bomb?" What about "nuclear armageddon"? You remember all those things?

Stay cool. Go with the good data, and don't get wired about things you can't change anyway. The future never turns out to be what the doomsayers predict.

We do know the globe is warming somewhat. But it's slow. We don't know if it has much to do with us. We don't know if we can do anything to change it, or how much, or how fast. But one thing for sure: unless we have very good, hard-data science in place, we'd be very stupid to try, if this is as big a problem as the doomsayers want us to think. If we can't afford to get the equation wrong, we can't afford panic and overreaction either.
Fair enough. But just because "wolf" has been cried many times before doesn't necessarily mean it isn't happening now. I would certainly hate to find out too late that we could have done something but didn't.
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Re: The 6th Mass Extinction as Ice caps both north and south are melting.

Post by Gary Childress »

Harbal wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:32 pm
Gary Childress wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:26 pm

Do I really need to explain that to you, Harbal?
Yes you do, Gary, because I want as much reassurance as possible that I won't become extinct.
OK. But things don't sound very promising out there from what I've seen.
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Immanuel Can
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Re: The 6th Mass Extinction as Ice caps both north and south are melting.

Post by Immanuel Can »

Harbal wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:22 pm Sorry to be pedantic, but if anyone survives it, it won't be an extinction. :|
Well, who will take care of my passenger pigeon? :shock:
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henry quirk
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Re: The 6th Mass Extinction as Ice caps both north and south are melting.

Post by henry quirk »

Gary Childress wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:18 pm
Immanuel Can wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:13 pm
Gary Childress wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:10 pm
Based on various things I've read about mass extinctions.
Gary, Gary, Gary..."various things I've read"? Is that your idea of data? C'mon, bud.
Do you think we'll survive a mass extinction?
I'm wanting to know on what basis you think one is impending. If the threat is as serious as you say, isn't it important to have the best data? So I'm just asking where that data came from, that's all.
I'm not a climate scientist, only a consumer of more accessible news produced by those who are, so I don't have raw data. But stuff like this is certainly not encouraging.

https://www.businessinsider.com/signs-o ... ion-2019-3

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xgNxF2HlN3w
-----

no more, or less, skewed than anything you've consumed so far...

https://wattsupwiththat.com/

...just skewed in the opposite direction
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Re: The 6th Mass Extinction as Ice caps both north and south are melting.

Post by Gary Childress »

Immanuel Can wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:35 pm
Harbal wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:22 pm Sorry to be pedantic, but if anyone survives it, it won't be an extinction. :|
Well, who will take care of my passenger pigeon? :shock:
Not sure but I guess if we do nothing about human made global climate change, we're guaranteed to get nothing done toward slowing it or even preventing it. That's a given. Let's hope skeptics are right.
Last edited by Gary Childress on Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Immanuel Can
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Re: The 6th Mass Extinction as Ice caps both north and south are melting.

Post by Immanuel Can »

Gary Childress wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:32 pm Fair enough. But just because "wolf" has been cried many times before doesn't necessarily mean it isn't happening now. I would certainly hate to find out too late that we could have done something but didn't.
Sure. I agree that either to react foolishly or not to react when necessary are both bad. But important issues require precise solutions. And good data are our friends. It would be a shame to overreact now, and not to be in a position to react when we see what the data prove.

Meanwhile, no part of the problem is on you, Gary.
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Re: The 6th Mass Extinction as Ice caps both north and south are melting.

Post by Gary Childress »

Immanuel Can wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:38 pm And good data are our friends. It would be a shame to overreact now, and not to be in a position to react when we see what the data prove.
Unfortunately, when it comes to something as complex as climate, data like this seems to be the best we can get. The professor in the video is talking about data that he measured himself. What happens when we come out of the "cold" cycle we're apparently in? How hot will it get, then?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... =emb_title
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Immanuel Can
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Re: The 6th Mass Extinction as Ice caps both north and south are melting.

Post by Immanuel Can »

I don't believe it, Gary. Neither should you. We should wait until we have data.

Remember when we were told we were going to be plunged into a new Ice Age? Or was it Global Warming? Or was it the ozone hole that has now closed? Or the starving polar bears that weren't starving?

I loose track of all the doomsday scenarios.
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Re: The 6th Mass Extinction as Ice caps both north and south are melting.

Post by Gary Childress »

Immanuel Can wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:50 pm I don't believe it, Gary. Neither should you. We should wait until we have data.
Why don't you believe the video? He seems to offer a pretty clear presentation of the data that sounds convincing to me. And, to be fair, he even openly states that it is not incontrovertible. However, it is pretty convincing. I don't know.

But if there's one video out there you could watch on climate change, I recommend that one. The guy is as honest as I've seen yet.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Immanuel Can
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Re: The 6th Mass Extinction as Ice caps both north and south are melting.

Post by Immanuel Can »

Gary Childress wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:55 pm
Immanuel Can wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:50 pm I don't believe it, Gary. Neither should you. We should wait until we have data.
Why don't you believe the video?... he even openly states that it is not incontrovertible.
You just answered your own question, Gary. Let's have some incontrovertible data. If the deal's that important, we can't afford less.
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Re: The 6th Mass Extinction as Ice caps both north and south are melting.

Post by Gary Childress »

Immanuel Can wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:59 pm
Gary Childress wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:55 pm
Immanuel Can wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:50 pm I don't believe it, Gary. Neither should you. We should wait until we have data.
Why don't you believe the video?... he even openly states that it is not incontrovertible.
You just answered your own question, Gary. Let's have some incontrovertible data. If the deal's that important, we can't afford less.
But with something like climate, we may never get incontrovertible data until the worst actually happens. That seems to be part of the problem. It's almost like asking a weatherman to guarantee that it will rain tomorrow or that a Hurricane will strike a particular location.

However, it does seem pretty evident that average temperature is increasing, sea level is rising and that an unusually large number of species are facing possible or even actual extinction. I don't think that's in much dispute. How bad it gets or even if it turns out to be some great boon is difficult to say.
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