Ukraine Crisis

[popeye1945]

Hypothetical: Russia has just set up a military base in Mexico on the US border and the Americans have invaded Mexico, is that a reasonable reaction on the part of the Americans. They give a lame excuse of protecting their border, are you really going to buy that?

[wtf]

Hypothetical: Russia has just set up a military base in Mexico on the US border and the Americans have invaded Mexico, is that a reasonable reaction on the part of the Americans. They give a lame excuse of protecting their border, are you really going to buy that?

This actually happened once. In 1962 the Soviet Union put nukes into Cuba. JFK ordered a naval blockade, threatened an invasion of Cuba, and was willing to start a nuclear war to get the Soviets out. The Joint Chiefs were frothing at the mouth to invade Cuba. In the end, backchannel communications enabled JFK to offer Khrushchev a face-saving "off-ramp" in the form of taking our nukes out of Turkey and agreeing not to invade Cuba, and nuclear war was averted.

There's a pretty good movie on the subject, Thirteen Days. Well worth a rental, stream, etc.

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0146309/reference/

JFK was assassinated thirteen months later and Khruschev's people deposed him in 1964. The hardliners in both countries were terribly disappointed to see peace break out.

The Cuban missile crisis is directly analogous to what's going on in Ukraine. It was an existential threat to the US to have Soviet nukes 90 miles from our border. And Russia sees it as an existential threat to have Ukraine joining NATO.

Note: Just jumping in here on page 59, have not followed what's gone before. I've followed NATO's eastward march since 1991 with some sense of where it eventually would lead. Fan of John Mearsheimer, in case his name has come up in the thread.

[Skepdick]

The Cuban missile crisis is directly analogous to what's going on in Ukraine. It was an existential threat to the US to have Soviet nukes 90 miles from our border. And Russia sees it as an existential threat to have Ukraine joining NATO.

I am not really sure that analogy works. If it were an existential threat then why didn't they invade Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia when they joined NATO in 2004?

Latvia and Estonia share a border with Russia; and Lithuania is within 90 miles of Russia.

[promethean75]

russia gave that basketball chick nine years not becuz they think she deserved it, but because they might need a bargaining chip in the next ten years.... especially if they plan to have, or have already, undercover russian operatives in the U.S. that could get busted and imprisoned. Think about it.

[iambiguous]

Or maybe this is how it all ends...not with a nuclear bomb but with an energy bomb. Not in regard to bullets but to bucks.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/25/opin ... rices.html

Thomas L. Friedman at the New York Times

'As the Russian Army continues to falter in Ukraine, the world is worrying that Vladimir Putin could use a tactical nuclear weapon. Maybe — but for now, I think Putin is assembling a different weapon. It’s an oil and gas bomb that he’s fusing right before our eyes and with our inadvertent help — and he could easily detonate it this winter.

'If he does, it could send prices of home heating oil and gasoline into the stratosphere. The political fallout, Putin surely hopes, will divide the Western alliance and prompt many countries — including ours, where both MAGA Republicans and progressives are expressing concerns about the spiraling cost of the Ukraine conflict — to seek a dirty deal with the man in the Kremlin, pronto.

'In short: Putin is now fighting a ground war to break through Ukraine’s lines and a two-front energy war to break Ukraine’s will and that of its allies. He’s trying to smash Ukraine’s electricity system to ensure a long, cold winter there while putting himself in position (in ways that I’ll explain) to drive up energy costs for all of Ukraine’s allies. And because we — America and the West — do not have an energy strategy in place to dampen the impact of Putin’s energy bomb, this is a frightening prospect.'

A "dirty deal" with tyranny? At least from the perspective of most in the West?

On the other hand, what if Putin does go the nuclear route? How exactly will Biden and the NATO alliance react to that? Will they provide Ukraine with nuclear weapons? Will they nuke Moscow?

In other words, what might spark an actual exchange of nukes on a global scale?

[popeye1945]

Hypothetical: Russia has just set up a military base in Mexico on the US border and the Americans have invaded Mexico, is that a reasonable reaction on the part of the Americans. They give a lame excuse of protecting their border, are you really going to buy that?

This actually happened once. In 1962 the Soviet Union put nukes into Cuba. JFK ordered a naval blockade, threatened an invasion of Cuba, and was willing to start a nuclear war to get the Soviets out. The Joint Chiefs were frothing at the mouth to invade Cuba. In the end, backchannel communications enabled JFK to offer Khrushchev a face-saving "off-ramp" in the form of taking our nukes out of Turkey and agreeing not to invade Cuba, and nuclear war was averted.

There's a pretty good movie on the subject, Thirteen Days. Well worth a rental, stream, etc.

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0146309/reference/

JFK was assassinated thirteen months later and Khruschev's people deposed him in 1964. The hardliners in both countries were terribly disappointed to see peace break out.

The Cuban missile crisis is directly analogous to what's going on in Ukraine. It was an existential threat to the US to have Soviet nukes 90 miles from our border. And Russia sees it as an existential threat to have Ukraine joining NATO.

Note: Just jumping in here on page 59, have not followed what's gone before. I've followed NATO's eastward march since 1991 with some sense of where it eventually would lead. Fan of John Mearsheimer, in case his name has come up in the thread.

Yes, the two situations have one thing in common, US aggression, the Cuban missile crisis followed the American attempted invasion of Cuba at the Bay of Pigs. If people do not wise up, the American empire will be the demise of us all. Its war machine is greater than the German Nazi's ever dream of, but their ambitions are the same world domination. They are so close to it now that they are foaming at the mouth. A great many Germans did not see the total inhumanity of the Nazi regime until it was to late, and this American empire makes those Nazis look like boy scouts.

[Gary Childress]

Putin is no angel either. Ukraine won't be enough for him. He'll keep chipping away for more. Who would you rather live under, Putin or someone you can at least ultimately vote out of office?

[popeye1945]

Putin is no angel either. Ukraine won't be enough for him. He'll keep chipping away for more. Who would you rather live under, Putin or someone you can at least ultimately vote out of office?

The question is who is the aggressor and that is rather obvious.

[Sculptor]

Putin is no angel either. Ukraine won't be enough for him. He'll keep chipping away for more. Who would you rather live under, Putin or someone you can at least ultimately vote out of office?

The question is who is the aggressor and that is rather obvious.

The EU and US just have different means.
THey have been mounting a hostile takeover of the political system since the break up of the Soviet Union. Have you not heard of the coup?
WHilst right wing elements in Ukraine have been marginalising Russian speakers in East Ukraine, whilst inventing Ukrainian nationalism.
SO yeah, whilst Russia sent in the tanks, it was not without a great deal of provocation.

[Sculptor]

Putin is no angel either. Ukraine won't be enough for him. He'll keep chipping away for more. Who would you rather live under, Putin or someone you can at least ultimately vote out of office?

I think he will end up in control of East Ukraine, but the show is over for him. It's doubtful if he survives this politically.

[popeye1945]

How many here will be happy with the American new world order? As the late old Bush said," The world is just going to have to get use to the idea, that what we say goes."

[Gary Childress]

Hypothetical: Russia has just set up a military base in Mexico on the US border and the Americans have invaded Mexico, is that a reasonable reaction on the part of the Americans. They give a lame excuse of protecting their border, are you really going to buy that?

This actually happened once. In 1962 the Soviet Union put nukes into Cuba. JFK ordered a naval blockade, threatened an invasion of Cuba, and was willing to start a nuclear war to get the Soviets out. The Joint Chiefs were frothing at the mouth to invade Cuba. In the end, backchannel communications enabled JFK to offer Khrushchev a face-saving "off-ramp" in the form of taking our nukes out of Turkey and agreeing not to invade Cuba, and nuclear war was averted.

There's a pretty good movie on the subject, Thirteen Days. Well worth a rental, stream, etc.

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0146309/reference/

JFK was assassinated thirteen months later and Khruschev's people deposed him in 1964. The hardliners in both countries were terribly disappointed to see peace break out.

The Cuban missile crisis is directly analogous to what's going on in Ukraine. It was an existential threat to the US to have Soviet nukes 90 miles from our border. And Russia sees it as an existential threat to have Ukraine joining NATO.

Note: Just jumping in here on page 59, have not followed what's gone before. I've followed NATO's eastward march since 1991 with some sense of where it eventually would lead. Fan of John Mearsheimer, in case his name has come up in the thread.

Just googled, Mearsheimer. Does political "realism" include "justice" in its calculations of policy? Or does it all come down to some kind of Machiavellian survival of the fittest/most cunning?

[Gary Childress]

Putin is no angel either. Ukraine won't be enough for him. He'll keep chipping away for more. Who would you rather live under, Putin or someone you can at least ultimately vote out of office?

I think he will end up in control of East Ukraine, but the show is over for him. It's doubtful if he survives this politically.

I hope it ends that way. It gets tiring being the "bad guys" all the time in the world, regardless of what we do.

[Sculptor]

Putin is no angel either. Ukraine won't be enough for him. He'll keep chipping away for more. Who would you rather live under, Putin or someone you can at least ultimately vote out of office?

I think he will end up in control of East Ukraine, but the show is over for him. It's doubtful if he survives this politically.

I hope it ends that way. It gets tiring being the "bad guys" all the time in the world, regardless of what we do.

Regarless??? Regard this mutha fucka..
Well illegal invasions and incursions in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, Grenada, Chili, Cuba, Iran (I could go on) basically make you the bad guys. So suck it up, and stop being such hypocrites.

[wtf]

Just googled, Mearsheimer.

You googled his name? Did you watch any of his videos or read any of his works? You googled him?

We live in the age of "know about." If you go to medical school, do a residency in brain surgery, and spend 30 years as a brain surgeon, you know brain surgery.

If you spend 30 seconds googling brain surgery, you "know about" brain surgery.

If you are interested in learning what the man actually says, you should give this video a look, in which he predicted the Ukraine disaster back in 2015. This particular video was all over the Internet at the start of the Ukraine war.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4

A realist, in foreign policy terms, is someone who views the world in terms of national interests, rather than ideology. Also known as realpolitik, as practiced by Nixon and Kissinger in the 1970s. "Realpolitik: a system of politics or principles based on practical rather than moral or ideological considerations." -- Wiki