What is your current analysis of ...

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Skepdick
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Re: What is your current analysis of ...

Post by Skepdick »

Yeah? And where was the corresponding public outrage to go with those news articles? Water under the bridge.
FlashDangerpants wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:06 am The assassination of a competing power's military brass is nonetheless a new and unwelcome tactic.
It may just be the Franz Ferdinand moment. In fact, the public outrage may well be because "killing terrorists is fine, but killing terrorists with diplomatic immunity may have dire consequences".
FlashDangerpants wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:06 am And escalating further with vague threats to target cultural sites is also a new and a bad development. It's a mistake to treat these as just a continuation of business as usual.
No, look - the USA bases in Iraq got bombed 2 hours ago...
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Arising_uk
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Re: What is your current analysis of ...

Post by Arising_uk »

Skepdick wrote: No. The strikes were "outside areas of active hostilities" e.g war zones. They were outside of Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria.
Which countries were they in then?
Skepdick
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Re: What is your current analysis of ...

Post by Skepdick »

Arising_uk wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:16 am Which countries were they in then?
The report doesn't say. Whatever countries - the USA wasn't at war with them.
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Arising_uk
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Re: What is your current analysis of ...

Post by Arising_uk »

"We have a very extraordinarily expensive air base that's there. It cost billions of dollars to build. We're not leaving unless they pay us back for it," he told reporters." :lol: You couldn't make it up! Satirists are out of a job.
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FlashDangerpants
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Re: What is your current analysis of ...

Post by FlashDangerpants »

Skepdick wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:13 am
Yeah? And where was the corresponding public outrage to go with those news articles? Water under the bridge.
There was lots of that. I'm sorry it passed you by, but you weren't paying attention.
Skepdick wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:13 am
FlashDangerpants wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:06 am The assassination of a competing power's military brass is nonetheless a new and unwelcome tactic.
It may just be the Franz Ferdinand moment. In fact, the public outrage may well be because "killing terrorists is fine, but killing terrorists with diplomatic immunity may have dire consequences".
Are you just now learning the concept of realpolitik?

Of course people get more grumpy when you do bad things with globally catastrophic implications than they do when you do bad things with locally catastrophic ones. Thunberg went to the UN and gave them a shouting at because of Global Warming, she wouldn't be able to get quite the same traction for a complaint that one pond in Stockholm has a bunch of litter and some dog poo in it.
Skepdick wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:13 am
FlashDangerpants wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:06 am And escalating further with vague threats to target cultural sites is also a new and a bad development. It's a mistake to treat these as just a continuation of business as usual.
No, look - the USA bases in Iraq got bombed 2 hours ago...
Also not business as usual. Hardly unexpected though was it? That's how escalation works, I'm sure new stuff in Tehran is aflame as I write this.
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henry quirk
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"as HQ pointed out there's nothing like a Hollywood view of geopolitics"

Post by henry quirk »

Fuck you, that there is cowboy diplomacy, not Hollywood hokum... :boom:
Walker
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Re: What is your current analysis of ...

Post by Walker »

Arising_uk wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:20 am
Walker wrote: Iran’s oil isn’t such a big club anymore, Iran isn’t all that popular, its markets don’t want any trouble so they’re probably telling the fanatics to straighten up and fly right, which is a significant suggestion to a one-horse country.
:lol: What planet do you live on? The US has effectively destroyed any say they might have.
Obviously, Iran is ripe for revolution.
Maybe but you think they'll listen to the US calls given they've seen what the US's word is worth to those who attempt it?
The planet of reading comprehension, Chuckles. The pronoun “its” refers to Iran’s oil markets, not the United States.

No casualties. Either Iran can't shoot straight, which is entirely possible, or their rockets' red glare was a face-saving exercise.

*

Why Aren't Gas Prices Going Through the Roof if We're on the Verge of War With Iran?
https://pjmedia.com/trending/why-arent- ... with-iran/

“But what about oil? If we're on the brink of war with Iran, shouldn't we be seeing $100 bbl oil?

“The fact is, investors and analysts have already factored in increased tensions between the U.S. and Iran and are dismissing talk of "World War III." Nor do they think Iran is stupid enough to take action that would choke off tanker traffic through the Straits of Hormuz, through which 18 million bbls of oil move every day.”

“I know it's fun to talk about World War III, the return of the draft, endless war, wag the dog, and other exciting, boredom-killing memes that anti-Trump hysterics are trying to push. But investors deal with perceptions based on real-world events and don't pay much attention to the political hot air being manufactured in Washington. And in the real world, Iran wouldn't dare to cause any serious damage to U.S. interests.”
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Arising_uk
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Re: What is your current analysis of ...

Post by Arising_uk »

Walker wrote: The planet of reading comprehension, Chuckles. The pronoun “its” refers to Iran’s oil markets, not the United States.
My reading comprehension is fine sweetie. As I was refering to Iran's oil market which has, thanks to the US, been decimated such that this year they estimate a 70% decrease on oil revenue.
No casualties. Either Iran can't shoot straight, which is entirely possible, or their rockets' red glare was a face-saving exercise.
Dur! Yur think.
Why Aren't Gas Prices Going Through the Roof if We're on the Verge of War With Iran?
https://pjmedia.com/trending/why-arent- ... with-iran/

“But what about oil? If we're on the brink of war with Iran, shouldn't we be seeing $100 bbl oil?
Er!? The reason is because since Trump cancelled the oil for nukes deal and imposed stringent sanctions Iranians have not been able to sell their oil in any quantity and the markets had already priced this in.
“The fact is, investors and analysts have already factored in increased tensions between the U.S. and Iran and are dismissing talk of "World War III." Nor do they think Iran is stupid enough to take action that would choke off tanker traffic through the Straits of Hormuz, through which 18 million bbls of oil move every day.”

“I know it's fun to talk about World War III, the return of the draft, endless war, wag the dog, and other exciting, boredom-killing memes that anti-Trump hysterics are trying to push. But investors deal with perceptions based on real-world events and don't pay much attention to the political hot air being manufactured in Washington. And in the real world, Iran wouldn't dare to cause any serious damage to U.S. interests.”
No idea who's talking about WWIII? Probably those Christian end of times nuts hoping for their prophecies to come true and trying hard to make them so. Iran would stand no chance against an American assault and know it as they are not stupid and have seen what America is capable of. They have no effective air force just lots of missles which, unless they have gas warheads but even then, are pretty much useless in a protracted ground war as air cover is all. So they really don't want an official war with the US but if Trump is stupid enough to start one then don't expect any rational decisions from a regime based upon religious martyrdom and my guess would be that if really threatened with extinction their likely response would be to fire all their misses at their neighbours oil wells and production sites, then see what the oil price does.
As for the strait's, the author is right they won't do anything as they don't want to give the US the chance to declare war but again if one was declared then what harm would it do them to sink a few tankers right in the middle as they can't sell their oil any way and three or four tankers sunk there will effectively block the route completely and again investing in oil will be the place to be.
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Arising_uk
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Re: "as HQ pointed out there's nothing like a Hollywood view of geopolitics"

Post by Arising_uk »

henry quirk wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:41 am Fuck you, that there is cowboy diplomacy, not Hollywood hokum... :boom:
The black hat/white hat cowboy is exactly Hollywood hokum.
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FlashDangerpants
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Re: What is your current analysis of ...

Post by FlashDangerpants »

Walker wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:22 pm Why Aren't Gas Prices Going Through the Roof if We're on the Verge of War With Iran?
https://pjmedia.com/trending/why-arent- ... with-iran/

“But what about oil? If we're on the brink of war with Iran, shouldn't we be seeing $100 bbl oil?
Of course we shouldn't. The spot price of a buy to burn commodity that can't easily be hoarded is a stupid place to look for indicators of market fright. Gold is the hair trigger commodity to watch in times of uncertainty because it is a safe haven investment that people rarely set fire to and thus tend to store. Oil futures should only really spike after something which actually affects oil output.
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Sculptor
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Re: What is your current analysis of ...

Post by Sculptor »

Obama had this thing cracked.
He got the deal.

The idiot in the blond wig capriciously dumped the deal and imposed sanctions.
Despite that Iran played a huge role in ending ISIS. And this particular general was key in that campaign.
Trump repays this by illegal assassination, breaching Iraq territoriality in the process.
Trump seems to be acting like a man determined to undo Obama's legacy at any cost. Or a man acting like a complete moron.
I think that "analysis" can only be applied to a series of actions that are rational. I do not think that there is any rationality in what Trump does.

Continuing sanctions, and aggressive behaviour has led to , and shall continue to lead to more recriminations. How many young Muslims across the western world have been radicalised this week?
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Sculptor
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Re: "as HQ pointed out there's nothing like a Hollywood view of geopolitics"

Post by Sculptor »

Arising_uk wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:22 pm
henry quirk wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:41 am Fuck you, that there is cowboy diplomacy, not Hollywood hokum... :boom:
The black hat/white hat cowboy is exactly Hollywood hokum.
Given the history of political interference since WW2 against Persia it is clear that American has been wearing the black hat during that time, sometimes with a neckerchief pulled up over its nose.
Only a person with the most extreme ignorance concerning US/Iran relations would think otherwise.
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henry quirk
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Re: "as HQ pointed out there's nothing like a Hollywood view of geopolitics"

Post by henry quirk »

Arising_uk wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:22 pm
henry quirk wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:41 am Fuck you, that there is cowboy diplomacy, not Hollywood hokum... :boom:
The black hat/white hat cowboy is exactly Hollywood hokum.
Nah, they just dressed it up. Cowboy diplomacy precedes Hollywood.
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henry quirk
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Re: "as HQ pointed out there's nothing like a Hollywood view of geopolitics"

Post by henry quirk »

Sculptor wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:08 pm
Arising_uk wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:22 pm
henry quirk wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:41 am Fuck you, that there is cowboy diplomacy, not Hollywood hokum... :boom:
The black hat/white hat cowboy is exactly Hollywood hokum.
Given the history of political interference since WW2 against Persia it is clear that American has been wearing the black hat during that time, sometimes with a neckerchief pulled up over its nose.
Only a person with the most extreme ignorance concerning US/Iran relations would think otherwise.
If we're gonna be the bad guys we might as well be good at it.
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Arising_uk
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Re: "as HQ pointed out there's nothing like a Hollywood view of geopolitics"

Post by Arising_uk »

henry quirk wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:33 pm
Sculptor wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:08 pm
Arising_uk wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:22 pm
The black hat/white hat cowboy is exactly Hollywood hokum.
Given the history of political interference since WW2 against Persia it is clear that American has been wearing the black hat during that time, sometimes with a neckerchief pulled up over its nose.
Only a person with the most extreme ignorance concerning US/Iran relations would think otherwise.
If we're gonna be the bad guys we might as well be good at it.
But you're not good at it, that's the problem.
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