Bacterial life found on Mars!

[mark black]

I'm joking - but what if it were true? Why are we looking for it and what would it mean to us if we had found it?

[Arising_uk]

It might mean that Hoyle and Wickramasinghe could have the last laugh, or, that Darwin was right, or, that the IDers are right.
What it would definitely mean is that Earth is not the only place that Life can exist.
a_uk

[Richard Baron]

Nick Bostrom has an interesting argument about extra-terrestrial life, and the desirability of only finding very primitive forms:

http://www.nickbostrom.com/extraterrestrial.pdf

I am not convinced by his argument. I have a major concern and a minor one.

The major concern is that I do not think he has made much of a case for a single Great Filter (see page 7). If there would be a range of different things that could go wrong, then as he recognises, that would not be enough, because some lucky civilisations, quite possibly including our own, would escape all of them.

So I think he would need to re-cast his argument along the lines of "if it is easy for advanced life to evolve (as would be evidenced by finding impressive fossils on Mars), then the fact that we have not been visited by aliens means that it is very difficult for advanced life to evolve beyond a certain point, because something or other is practically bound to go wrong". That is, there would be hardly any lucky ones who would dodge all of the many possible total disasters.

That would I think be a less depressing prospect. It would say that something will probably get us eventually, but we have no idea what or when. We would have an expiry, but no determinate expiry date or expiry stage of civilisation. Moreover, whatever gets us might well not be a by-product of our own progress, so it could happen at any stage of evolution, so the argument that the Great Filter lay ahead of us would lose its force: it could have happened by now, it just happens not to have happened yet.

The minor concern is that I don't think that he makes sufficient allowance for the large scale of the Universe. His assumption at the bottom of page 4 and the top of page 5 that at least one intelligent life form would have expanded across our galaxy is backed up by his discussion of von Neumann probes, but they have to get lucky with the planets they land on - those planets must have the right elements - and when they set off again, they have to head in the right directions to find the next planets. And inter-galactic travel, to bring in plenty more potential civilizations, would be a lot more difficult and time-consuming than intra-galactic travel.

[Arising_uk]

Hi Richard,
Great article and to much food for thought to discuss intelligibly at present. One comment. He should get a bloody proof-reader as it annoys the shit out of me having to search for prepositions and words to make sense of sentences whilst also trying to understand complicated concepts. Especially given the officialness of the paper and his position.
yours pedantically
a_uk

[mark black]

I too am unable to reply but on the basis of what you have written. That said, I agree. He doesn't account for the scale of the galaxy. Imagine if we developed the technology - would we immediately begin a search of 100,000 billion stars for intelligent life, or in face of this immensity merely colonize the nearest few star systems?

Furthermore, even if they knew of us, an alien species may well have a policy of non-interference, particularly if we have not yet, but may one day develop this technology. It seems likely to me that we will have to cooperate as a species to survive the energy crisis and climate change, environmental degradation and overpopulation - unite as a species, put aside warfare, and evolve by centralizing scientific knowledge to the conduct of our affairs.

As they would have had to do the same, they may well decide that if we are able to do so, then we are fit to meet other species, but who would want to make friends with a species at odds with itself? We would only cause trouble. Of course, you might still get some lone exile from the galactic harmony seek to unleash an immature species on the galaxy for its own good - but otherwise we would remain ignorant of the vast civilization above.

[i blame blame]

I'm joking - but what if it were true? Why are we looking for it and what would it mean to us if we had found it?

I would say that it would boost two hypotheses: Panspermia, which proposes that "life here began out there" (quote from Battlestar Galactica). I.e. the building blocks of life, or, primitive procaryotes developed on a comet that collided with some other celestial body, breaking it into pieces, some of which landed on earth and others on Mars and possibly elsewhere.

Or it could mean that development of life is convenient locations is very likely, and that the majority of star systems with planets in the green zone would likely have life on them. Of course it would tell us nothing of the likelihood of complex multi-cellular organisms, let alone "intelligent" ones. Those could still be freaks of nature found only on earth.

[Psychonaut]

I do not see how it could be taken to imply, or improve the implication, of panspermia since we have no means to evaluate the relative likelihoods of such other lifeforms having their own genesis or coming from a mutual genesis.

[mark black]

I concur. If life spontaneously occured on Earth it could just as well have done so on Mars - with no necessary connection between these events but that conditions allowed for the possibility.

This would have implications for the likelyhood of life elsewhere in the universe - a question I think we've got to settle one way or another - and soon.

I think it's important metaphysically that we know for sure that the universe isn't just a light show put on for our amusement, but a haven of life of which are an example.

If bacterial life had been found on Mars, I think we would see the first manned missions following quite soon afterward. Speaking of which - why not go one way? After all, is it not better to live one day as a Martian lion, than a lifetime as an Earthworm?

mark.

[i blame blame]

I concur. If life spontaneously occured on Earth it could just as well have done so on Mars - with no necessary connection between these events but that conditions allowed for the possibility.

This would have implications for the likelyhood of life elsewhere in the universe - a question I think we've got to settle one way or another - and soon.

I think it's important metaphysically that we know for sure that the universe isn't just a light show put on for our amusement, but a haven of life of which are an example.

If bacterial life had been found on Mars, I think we would see the first manned missions following quite soon afterward. Speaking of which - why not go one way? After all, is it not better to live one day as a Martian lion, than a lifetime as an Earthworm?

mark.

We don't at this point know how to get a human being there alive. How would you live on Mars as a lion? It's a cold, bleak ugly place.

[Psychonaut]

Cold and bleak maybe, but ugly?
For heavan's sakes man, you're a scientist and you can't see the majesty of the celestial bodies?!

[i blame blame]

Cold and bleak maybe, but ugly?
For heavan's sakes man, you're a scientist and you can't see the majesty of the celestial bodies?!

Ugly in the way that it might get boring after a few months cos there's not much variation. Also "ugly" in the way that a situation can be ugly.

[Psychonaut]

But ugly means not pretty, and this is what I took you to mean, you are shifting the meanings, this is not permissable!

[i blame blame]

But ugly means not pretty, and this is what I took you to mean, you are shifting the meanings, this is not permissable!

YOUR not permissible.

[Arising_uk]

Re:Nick Bostrom

I've not grasped the 'Great Filter' idea yet but think it might be based upon his negative evidence of alien life idea.
An initial objection to his model is that if we take us as an example then we have radiated EM in a sphere of about 120 light years so far. Now that is big but its pretty small given Galactic numbers of stars and distances. So if the evidence for no life is our SETI search then it does not rule out that Life is bursting, at this 'moment', into existence everywhere. But lets say bursting is also pretty small given the number of stars and planets, so its not unfeasible to think that we'd be pretty lucky to find Life as advanced as us in the near-neighbourhood. It would not be unfeasible to think that Life in a Galaxy lies within a band that we inhabit and possible that its one Life an Arm. Given these assumptions and the gulf between the relative positions within the Arms I'd guess that we'd not 'spot' any technological society yet. Or it could be one-life per Galaxy, same problems. My idea is that this idea of an 'Great Filter' can be skipped if we assume Life is just starting out everywhere.

Any bods out there who could make a few estimates about how far EM will have to go to reach across an Arm and a Gulf and how long by our time?

If the above was true. Does this mean we might be in an unoticable technological Arms Race? As by the time we Contact we will probably be technologically advanced. Can we assume that when we meet they will be Technological Green Peace loving Hippies like us?
a_uk

[i blame blame]

An initial objection to his model is that if we take us as an example then we have radiated EM in a sphere of about 120 light years so far.

With our current technology, we would not be able to detect radio or other electromagnetic information sent with a power like that generated by earth sources that are further away than a couple of lightweeks. So even though first radio transmissions have travelled 120 lightyears, intelligent life identical to us would not be able to pick it up that far away. It couldn't be picked up from Alpha Centauri either.