METEOROLOGY - A RIP-OFF

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tbieter
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METEOROLOGY - A RIP-OFF

Post by tbieter » Wed Jun 24, 2009 2:05 am

I watch the weathermen on TV in amazement. What frauds! Ninty-nine per cent of the time his forecast ("scientific predictions"?) is no where near realized. And they call what he does 'science'. Crap!

Like the other day. The forecast was specific: A 70% chance of at least one inch of rain for the Twin Cities.
What rain did we get? None!

I'm done with them. I'll no longer watch the "weather" part of the news. And at the appropriate time, I'll attack the "science" and "profession" in a carefully drafted letter to the editor.

Thanks. I needed to vent. :x

Tom

Weather forecasting
Main article: Weather forecasting

Forecast of surface pressures five days into the future for the north Pacific, North America, and north Atlantic ocean.Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the state of the atmosphere for a future time and a given location. Human beings have attempted to predict the weather informally for millennia, and formally since at least the nineteenth century.[60][61] Weather forecasts are made by collecting quantitative data about the current state of the atmosphere and using scientific understanding of atmospheric processes to project how the atmosphere will evolve.[62]

Once an all human endeavor based mainly upon changes in barometric pressure, current weather conditions, and sky condition,[63][64] forecast models are now used to determine future conditions. Human input is still required to pick the best possible forecast model to base the forecast upon, which involves pattern recognition skills, teleconnections, knowledge of model performance, and knowledge of model biases. The chaotic nature of the atmosphere, the massive computational power required to solve the equations that describe the atmosphere, error involved in measuring the initial conditions, and an incomplete understanding of atmospheric processes mean that forecasts become less accurate as the difference in current time and the time for which the forecast is being made (the range of the forecast) increases. The use of ensembles and model consensus help narrow the error and pick the most likely outcome.[65][66][67]

There are a variety of end users to weather forecasts. Weather warnings are important forecasts because they are used to protect life and property.[68] Forecasts based on temperature and precipitation are important to agriculture,[69][70][71][72] and therefore to commodity traders within stock markets. Temperature forecasts are used by utility companies to estimate demand over coming days.[73][74][75] On an everyday basis, people use weather forecasts to determine what to wear on a given day. Since outdoor activities are severely curtailed by heavy rain, snow and the wind chill, forecasts can be used to plan activities around these events, and to plan ahead and survive them.

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Gustaf
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Re: METEOROLOGY - A RIP-OFF

Post by Gustaf » Wed Jun 24, 2009 6:09 am

tbieter wrote:I watch the weathermen on TV in amazement. What frauds! Ninty-nine per cent of the time his forecast ("scientific predictions"?) is no where near realized. And they call what he does 'science'.
The important question is - is the accuracy of weathermens' predictions superior to random predictions in a statistically significant way?

If it it statistically significant, then what they are doing is science, not random guesses.

Whether or not what they are doing is useful is another matter.
I'm done with them. I'll no longer watch the "weather" part of the news.
I start my day with checking the weather channel, especially if I am going to be riding my motorcycle - and find that this is worthwhile. Perhaps your area has incompetent meteorologists?

duszek
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Re: METEOROLOGY - A RIP-OFF

Post by duszek » Wed Jun 24, 2009 7:54 pm

A 70 % chance means that it is a good idea to take an umbrella with you.
A little one, that you can put in your backpack.

A 95 % chance means that you should take a big umbrella with you.
A 10 % chance means that you can risk going out without an umbrella at all.

Apart from people using umbrellas farmers and gardeners may be interested in these forecasts.
How big are the chances that I will have to water my garden this evening ?

Why were you so much disappointed by the rain not coming, Tom ?

tbieter
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Re: METEOROLOGY - A RIP-OFF

Post by tbieter » Thu Jun 25, 2009 1:19 am

Hi Duszek,

The weatherman is my enemy. Most people are not skeptical of their "scientific" competence; but I am.

One time in Duluth I was watching the dinnertime news. It was lightly snowing. The weatherperson, Amy Rutledge (she was HOT) came on. She excitedly announced blizzard conditions on top of the hill and away from Lake Superior. At the time, I lived near the Lake. She actually warned people to stay home. Well, I decided to test her report by driving up the hill to the mall and to Barnes & Noble.

Well, I had no problem driving. There was no blizzard. We got maybe an inch of snow that evening.

So the weatherperson is my enemy. They take salary under false pretences. The people on TV are just "celebrities."

Apparently, I'm the only skeptic on this subject. The rest of you folks probably have to "watch the weather" before you retire. (or you can't sleep!)

Not me. I'm not among the gullible. (my wife used to leave the room when I began rantings at the weatherperson) Am I really a weirdo on this issue as she used to say?

Tom

Richard Baron
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Re: METEOROLOGY - A RIP-OFF

Post by Richard Baron » Thu Jun 25, 2009 9:48 am

Tom, you must move to Italia, where the weather forecasters have more authority. They are supplied by these people:

http://www.meteoam.it/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

and therefore appear in full Air Force uniform. An example is here (you have to wait a few seconds for the presenter to appear):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FkU3pvhRqFo" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Rortabend
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Re: METEOROLOGY - A RIP-OFF

Post by Rortabend » Thu Jun 25, 2009 10:30 am

The most reliable system of weather forecasting is to assume that the weather will be the same tomorrow as it is today.

tbieter
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Re: METEOROLOGY - A RIP-OFF

Post by tbieter » Thu Jun 25, 2009 12:29 pm

Hi Boys,

After people get to know me they tend not to comment on the weather in my presence. My son refers to my "annoying eccentricity." Maybe watching that Italian weatherman would be good therapy. :lol:

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