What is a good theory in science?

How does science work? And what's all this about quantum mechanics?

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Philosophy Explorer
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Re: What is a good theory in science?

Post by Philosophy Explorer » Sun Apr 29, 2018 9:36 am

Here's another question for you. Are you familiar with the use of statistics in experimentation (e.g. how big a sample should be or have you ever heard of the square root of wonderful or are you familiar with confidence levels?)

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uwot
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Re: What is a good theory in science?

Post by uwot » Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:22 am

Philosophy Explorer wrote:
Sun Apr 29, 2018 9:16 am
Since I don't want to risk creating monopolies...Through careful analysis, you can try to whittle down the theories.
Right, but in your science of selling I would assume your criterion for a good theory is that you sell more; tempered by your reluctance to create monopolies. Presumably then, there is point where a theory becomes so good, that it is no longer good. I don't think there is any such thing as a model that works too well in many other scientific fields.
Philosophy Explorer wrote:
Sun Apr 29, 2018 9:16 am
I've known about Richard Feynman for years. He pioneered in nanotechnology and many other branches of science.
He was a very clever bloke, but what do you make of his vicarious contribution to this thread?
Philosophy Explorer wrote:
Sun Apr 29, 2018 9:16 am
I converted selling into much more of a science. I've concluded that mentioning the name of the company isn't a factor in sales and that sales tip was wrong.
Well, there are people who have particular attitudes to specific brands; some positive, some not. I'm no sales scientist, but I imagine that a bit of research into a customer's loyalties would enable those involved in telemarketing to better direct their pitch.

uwot
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Re: What is a good theory in science?

Post by uwot » Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:33 am

Philosophy Explorer wrote:
Sun Apr 29, 2018 9:36 am
Here's another question for you. Are you familiar with the use of statistics in experimentation (e.g. how big a sample should be or have you ever heard of the square root of wonderful or are you familiar with confidence levels?)
I've only just heard of the science of selling, so I have no idea how any of the above pertain to it. The square root of wonderful is only known to me as a play. I am confident of that.
In a lot of contemporary research, such as the human genome project and particle physics, the amount of data produced is so vast that analysis is necessarily restricted to searching for evidence that some theory predicts you should find. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_mining There is no practical alternative to statistical analysis.

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Re: What is a good theory in science?

Post by Philosophy Explorer » Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:40 am

uwot wrote:
Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:22 am
Philosophy Explorer wrote:
Sun Apr 29, 2018 9:16 am
Since I don't want to risk creating monopolies...Through careful analysis, you can try to whittle down the theories.
Right, but in your science of selling I would assume your criterion for a good theory is that you sell more; tempered by your reluctance to create monopolies. Presumably then, there is point where a theory becomes so good, that it is no longer good. I don't think there is any such thing as a model that works too well in many other scientific fields.
Philosophy Explorer wrote:
Sun Apr 29, 2018 9:16 am
I've known about Richard Feynman for years. He pioneered in nanotechnology and many other branches of science.
He was a very clever bloke, but what do you make of his vicarious contribution to this thread?
Philosophy Explorer wrote:
Sun Apr 29, 2018 9:16 am
I converted selling into much more of a science. I've concluded that mentioning the name of the company isn't a factor in sales and that sales tip was wrong.
Well, there are people who have particular attitudes to specific brands; some positive, some not. I'm no sales scientist, but I imagine that a bit of research into a customer's loyalties would enable those involved in telemarketing to better direct their pitch.
Regarding your three points:

1) A good theory should explain why very few can sell enough to please their managers plus satisfy customers so that they come back to buy more.

2) Does brand loyalty translate into company loyalty? In the US, there often is no choice among cable companies. Do brands give good customer service?

3) Richard Feynman is regarded as a genius. I think that a theory or theories should be built up from evidence.

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Re: What is a good theory in science?

Post by Philosophy Explorer » Sun Apr 29, 2018 12:10 pm

uwot wrote:
Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:33 am
Philosophy Explorer wrote:
Sun Apr 29, 2018 9:36 am
Here's another question for you. Are you familiar with the use of statistics in experimentation (e.g. how big a sample should be or have you ever heard of the square root of wonderful or are you familiar with confidence levels?)
I've only just heard of the science of selling, so I have no idea how any of the above pertain to it. The square root of wonderful is only known to me as a play. I am confident of that.
In a lot of contemporary research, such as the human genome project and particle physics, the amount of data produced is so vast that analysis is necessarily restricted to searching for evidence that some theory predicts you should find. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_mining There is no practical alternative to statistical analysis.
I'm one of the very few who now recognize selling as a science.

The "square root of wonderful" is listed in a booklet given by a direct-mail broker named The Specialists in NYC. The booklet is about how to test a mailing list.

There isn't a vast amount of public data in the field of selling, I do know people can be taught to sell well (I've done it).

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uwot
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Re: What is a good theory in science?

Post by uwot » Sun Apr 29, 2018 12:14 pm

Philosophy Explorer wrote:
Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:40 am
3) Richard Feynman is regarded as a genius. I think that a theory or theories should be built up from evidence.
Part of Feynman's genius was based on his understanding that evidence is only any good if you look at it.
I'm sure your science of selling is very successful, but frankly, you are not selling it to me. How do you propose to adapt your strategy?

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Re: What is a good theory in science?

Post by Philosophy Explorer » Sun Apr 29, 2018 12:20 pm

uwot wrote:
Sun Apr 29, 2018 12:14 pm
Philosophy Explorer wrote:
Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:40 am
3) Richard Feynman is regarded as a genius. I think that a theory or theories should be built up from evidence.
Part of Feynman's genius was based on his understanding that evidence is only any good if you look at it.
I'm sure your science of selling is very successful, but frankly, you are not selling it to me. How do you propose to adapt your strategy?
As I said, I'm not revealing trade secrets. Look up negotiating strategy or negotiating tactics because that helped inspire my sales model.

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uwot
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Re: What is a good theory in science?

Post by uwot » Sun Apr 29, 2018 12:39 pm

Philosophy Explorer wrote:
Sun Apr 29, 2018 12:20 pm
As I said, I'm not revealing trade secrets.
Fair enough. So, shall we stick to 'What is a good theory in science'?

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Re: What is a good theory in science?

Post by Philosophy Explorer » Sun Apr 29, 2018 1:09 pm

uwot wrote:
Sun Apr 29, 2018 12:39 pm
Philosophy Explorer wrote:
Sun Apr 29, 2018 12:20 pm
As I said, I'm not revealing trade secrets.
Fair enough. So, shall we stick to 'What is a good theory in science'?
Sure

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uwot
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Re: What is a good theory in science?

Post by uwot » Sun Apr 29, 2018 2:05 pm

Okie-dokie. Back to here then:
uwot wrote:
Sat Apr 28, 2018 3:51 pm
Philosophy Explorer wrote:
Sat Apr 28, 2018 3:22 pm
I regard myself as an analyst.
Great. So what's your analysis of the Feynman clip?

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Re: What is a good theory in science?

Post by Philosophy Explorer » Sun Apr 29, 2018 2:12 pm

I gave you an example of a sales solution that I don't regard as a big accomplishment. Here's a different example that I do regard as my best accomplishment.

Worked at a Best Buy as a JVC tv demonstrator. The quota was for one sale for each working day. After 23 days, only had one sale. After analyzing, determined the problem was my shirt as prospects saw the shirt and assumed I didn't have their interest at heart (had one lady point out my shirt to her husband - couldn't take it off as it was personally given to me by my district manager who mentioned the marketing firm never sold successfully from that store).

I came up with a solution. I compared the technology of the tv with DLPs and LCDs (note that the tvs retailed for $2,500 to $3,000 depending on the sale). By offering a consumer choice, I earned the prospects' trust (also note that I was using the sales model).

Here's what happened. The next four days I sold 11 tvs!
I was shocked since my sales increased about 60 times.

Aftermath: I considered a mistake was made or somebody played a joke on me. After the project ended, I came back to the store to visit as the tv department was undergoing a renovation. A Best Buy supervisor spotted me and screamed out to his coworker "That's the JVC rep who cleaned out the warehouse!" That removed all doubt.

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Re: What is a good theory in science?

Post by Philosophy Explorer » Sun Apr 29, 2018 2:40 pm

uwot wrote:
Sun Apr 29, 2018 2:05 pm
Okie-dokie. Back to here then:
uwot wrote:
Sat Apr 28, 2018 3:51 pm
Philosophy Explorer wrote:
Sat Apr 28, 2018 3:22 pm
I regard myself as an analyst.
Great. So what's your analysis of the Feynman clip?
He talks about a number of things. Said two things can appear to be different even though the calculations are the same. Seems to say that different philosophies may be applied to the same situation. Trying to figure out what he's driving at.

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Re: What is a good theory in science?

Post by Philosophy Explorer » Sun Apr 29, 2018 2:48 pm

I guess you can say I'm an empiricist where I've had great success. I've also combined a theory (the sales tip after reinterpreting) with my basic sales technique I developed ten years ago to come up with a better sales model (after eight months of experimenting) - not easy to do, but it was worth it.

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uwot
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Re: What is a good theory in science?

Post by uwot » Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:00 pm

Philosophy Explorer wrote:
Sun Apr 29, 2018 2:40 pm
uwot wrote:
Sun Apr 29, 2018 2:05 pm
So what's your analysis of the Feynman clip?
He talks about a number of things. Said two things can appear to be different even though the calculations are the same. Seems to say that different philosophies may be applied to the same situation. Trying to figure out what he's driving at.
What Feynman is saying is:
1. There can be any number of theories to explain the same phenomenon.
See the list of alternative theories for gravity below, for example.
2. The maths gives pretty much the same results.
All the theories below are consistent with the observed data. In other words, any one of them could be true.
3. The different theories are based on different philosophical models.
For example: General relativity is based on the idea that gravity is caused by the 'curvature of spacetime'. Whereas: "In string theory, one of the many vibrational states of the string corresponds to the graviton, a quantum mechanical particle that carries gravitational force. Thus string theory is a theory of quantum gravity."
4. The philosophical models are psychological tools.
These help physicists to conceptualise the thing they are studying, which makes it much easier to come up with new ideas to research than ploughing through a mountain of tricky maths.

Modern alternative theories:
Brans–Dicke theory of gravity (1961)
Induced gravity (1967), a proposal by Andrei Sakharov according to which general relativity might arise from quantum field theories of matter
ƒ(R) gravity (1970)
Horndeski theory (1974)
Supergravity (1976)
String theory
In the modified Newtonian dynamics (MOND) (1981), Mordehai Milgrom proposes a modification of Newton's second law of motion for small accelerations[44]
The self-creation cosmology theory of gravity (1982) by G.A. Barber in which the Brans-Dicke theory is modified to allow mass creation
Loop quantum gravity (1988) by Carlo Rovelli, Lee Smolin, and Abhay Ashtekar
Nonsymmetric gravitational theory (NGT) (1994) by John Moffat
Conformal gravity
Tensor–vector–scalar gravity (TeVeS) (2004), a relativistic modification of MOND by Jacob Bekenstein
Gravity as an entropic force, gravity arising as an emergent phenomenon from the thermodynamic concept of entropy.
In the superfluid vacuum theory the gravity and curved space-time arise as a collective excitation mode of non-relativistic background superfluid.
Chameleon theory (2004) by Justin Khoury and Amanda Weltman.
Pressuron theory (2013) by Olivier Minazzoli and Aurélien Hees.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity

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Re: What is a good theory in science?

Post by Philosophy Explorer » Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:17 pm

What are your thoughts about QM and gravity? They're two theories to explain our universe. Are they really the same theory or distinct? Why can't they be combined as Einstein and many others have tried to do?

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