Veritas Aequitas wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 11:06 am
TimeSeeker wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:11 am
Veritas Aequitas wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:59 am
but JTB is the best available and it is useful. Science is JTB.
And that is my problem. It is NOT useful. Science is not JTB. You can't solve the problem of induction with JTB and science doesn't claim to have solved it. All scientific knowledge is probabilistic. A GUESS - based on the best available information.
You may have your own view of JTB which I find odd.
Here is one view that can reconcile with mine, i.e. Science is JTB.
Science is not merely a collection of facts, concepts, and useful ideas about nature, or even the systematic investigation of nature, although both are common definitions of science.
Science is a method of investigating nature--a way of knowing about nature--that discovers
reliable knowledge about it.
In other words, science is a method of discovering
reliable knowledge about nature. There are other methods of discovering and learning knowledge about nature (these other knowledge methods or systems will be discussed below in contradistinction to science), but science is the only method that results in the acquisition of reliable knowledge.
Reliable knowledge is knowledge that has a high probability of being true because its veracity has been justified by a reliable method.
Reliable knowledge is sometimes called justified true belief, to distinguish reliable knowledge from belief that is false and unjustified or even true but unjustified.
http://www.indiana.edu/~educy520/sec634 ... sman94.pdf
Veritas Aequitas wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:59 am
If you denounce JTB, then scientists should just stop finding preventive measures?
Prevention [arising from JTB speculations] is still better than cure.
False dilemma. I am an applied scientist and I denounce JTB.
You can say anything.
However from the perspective of knowledge you are applying JTB.
Humans may or may not go extinct tomorrow is NOT knowledge. Even though JTB says that it is.
Because I can flip a coin and get an answer to the question: Will humans go extinct tomorrow? Information is knowledge!
Information alone is not knowledge unless it is justified with evidences and proofs.
Information is supposedly processed knowledge. What is taken to be information could be untrue, e.g. fake news.
Thus the essence of information and fundamentally knowledge must be grounded to its justification, i.e. Justified True Belief.
Justified in this case also justified with soundness and rationality.
Humans may or may not go extinct tomorrow is knowledge as defined to be JTB.
In a way it is a sound speculative knowledge which is possible based on other JTBs grounded on empirical evidences.
We know [JTB] the dinosaurs were made extinct by a large meteorite.
We have evidence [JTBs] of the power of destruction of meteorites or comets.
There are many large sized meteorites [JTB] and scientists can easily estimate a size that could destroy Earth and make human extinct.
So it is JTB all the way.
The problem with JTB is we cannot get absolutely certain knowledge but it would be mad to expect absolute knowledge.
But with JTB we can have a basis to increase the confidence level of knowledge and know what confidence level to apply to knowledge.
I do not expect absolute knowledge. I expect PRECISE and FRESH knowledge! That is what I call information. Real time empirical truth. A direct measurement. An experiment.
Rather than tackling all of this - I have but one line of reasoning. How do you know that you have interpreted the facts/justification correctly?
How do you know that the truth produced by the truth-maker has been accurately and correctly been communicated to the truth-user (you)?
Human language is ambiguous - things get lost in translation. Important details get left out. How do you know that what was knowledge at the time of being written down is stil knowledge at the time you are interpreting it? Things change - knowledge goes stale. And so it is possible that you have misunderstood something (especially with 2nd hand information).
Which leaves you with a crappy question to address: how do you know that what you have acquired IS knowledge?
You can't! until you test that it actually works (and while accepting the risk if it doesn't).
I reject JTB on the grounds of language.
I have no TRUE beliefs. I have more and less PLAUSIBLE beliefs. I hold more and less fresh information (which I attempt to refresh as necessary)
I take responsibility for any and all errors that follow if due to a failed ASSUMPTION if my beliefs lead to a catastrophic (and avoidable) error.
Assumption is the mother of all fuckups
I check mine. Without verificationism it is not knowledge. Only Historically correct data.
Which necessarily means 'knowledge' can only be asserted a posteriori. After it has been verified to BE knowledge. By which point it is already stale and so while it may have been knowledge yesterday it may no longer be knowledge today.
A priori - all I have is an informed guess.
Veritas Aequitas wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:59 am
Humans may or may not go extinct tomorrow is knowledge as defined to be JTB.
In a way it is a sound speculative knowledge which is possible based on other JTBs grounded on empirical evidences.
You completely side-stepped the issue here!
The question: "Will humans go extinct tomorrow?" has a
Yes or
No answer. It requires
1 bit of information to answer
You cannot answer this question without resorting to the scientific method - hypothesis testing!
Hypothesis 1: Yes. Humans will go extinct tomorrow. - 50% probability
Hypothesis 2: No. Humans will not go extinct tomorrow - 50% probability
That is NOT useful! If I can't make any predictions then I can't make any
DECISIONS.
If all answers are equally probable then I can just flip a coin?
I want to draw a clear distinction between an ASSERTION and a DECISION.
An assertion is made about the PAST.
A decision is made about the FUTURE.
Time matters