The example I gave you is far far worse than the Gettier problem!Veritas Aequitas wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:59 am I understand JTB is not absolute, i.e. it has limitations e.g. Gettier's
In the Gettier problem at least you have COMMITTED to a position (action). You managed to form a belief - even if the belief was wrong.
My example - you can't even form a belief because both outcomes are equally probable: 50/50! You have to flip a coin.
And that is my problem. It is NOT useful. Science is not JTB. You can't solve the problem of induction with JTB and science doesn't claim to have solved it. All scientific knowledge is probabilistic. A GUESS - based on the best available information.Veritas Aequitas wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:59 am but JTB is the best available and it is useful. Science is JTB.
Irrelevant. The question was posed on a bounded time-interval. Not on a speculative cause of extinction.Veritas Aequitas wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:59 am From JTBs it can be proposed humans could be extinct from a rogue meteor/comet.
Question: Will humans become extinct tomorrow?
JTB: Humans may or may not become extinct tomorrow.
False dilemma. I am an applied scientist and I denounce JTB.Veritas Aequitas wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:59 am If you denounce JTB, then scientists should just stop finding preventive measures?
Prevention [arising from JTB speculations] is still better than cure.
No speculation can be made without risk assessment and the consequences of error. Example:Veritas Aequitas wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:59 am If the speculation do not appear to be true, at least all is not lost on that insurance policy and scientists can can exploit the arising technologies for other purposes.
There is a 1 in 50 chance that my toaster burns my breakfast toast.
There is a 1 in 50 chance that my parachute doesn't open on my next skydive.
To say that these two are identical knowledge is the biggest human blunder of all!
I will make toast on a toaster that screws up 1 in 50. A restaurant owner may not tolerate such crap!
At the age of 35, with my life ahead of me I WILL NOT jump with a parachute that does the same. Maybe you will!
Maybe I will too - at the age of 95!
Knowledge cannot be decoupled from the individual's tolerance for risk and ability to absorb the consequences of error.
And that is why any data which cannot be used to generate a time-bounded confidence interval (a probability distribution!) is not knowledge. It contains 0 bits of information.
If it can't help you make decisions - it is not knowledge!
Humans may or may not go extinct tomorrow is NOT knowledge. Even though JTB says that it is.
Because I can flip a coin and get an answer to the question: Will humans go extinct tomorrow? Information is knowledge!