https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6mU_b_mqCZI
Nice indepth video by Perun on NATO defense and research spending. Video just dropped.
Wagner moving into Niger (close to WW3)
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Constantine
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Gary Childress
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Re: Wagner moving into Niger (close to WW3)
I can't follow the pace of the speaker in the video. Is it safe to conclude from the gist of the video that Putin is behaving like a disease to humanity because he's been driving everyone to an arms race which the west is more reluctant to engage in and dragging its feet more so than China and Russia clearly are?Constantine wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 1:07 pm https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6mU_b_mqCZI
Nice indepth video by Perun on NATO defense and research spending. Video just dropped.
AJ, you need to be in this discussion also.
EDIT:
Alexis Jacobi wrote:AJ's response here
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Constantine
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Re: Wagner moving into Niger (close to WW3)
Oh, Alex is AJ? I was being accused of being him for a while.
No arms race. A arms race implies that Russia is building counters to the counters we are building (nope), or we are both in a race for some weapon system (sorta, hypersonic missiles, but that started well prior to Biden).
A tactical synthesis is the current set up that makes rocks have the value of rocks, paper the value of paper, and scissors the value of scissors in actual combat. Not hypothetically, but actuality. West is in a race against that actuality and China more than dying Russia (and it was dying during the Obama administration) is the model for that tactical synthesis, but China is also far ahead in hypersonic tech. That's the only area I can say west has a arms race. And the US patriot system knocked a russian hypersonic missile put of the air when Russia attacked Kyiv, so I'm rather uncertain of what they want in terms of hypersonic defense. Keep patriot as it is, upgrade the current system, scrap it for something better? If assume lasers or something eventually. I dunno, lots of different directions. One thing is certain, I don't want NATO cities having hypersonic missile blitz launched on them like unprepared Kyiv, so do want the very best system available. Just like as a American I don't want a rogue nuke attack on us so want the best anti-ballistic missile system available. Having one didn't provoke China or the DPRK into a war. Russia got annoyed but no big deal.
No arms race. A arms race implies that Russia is building counters to the counters we are building (nope), or we are both in a race for some weapon system (sorta, hypersonic missiles, but that started well prior to Biden).
A tactical synthesis is the current set up that makes rocks have the value of rocks, paper the value of paper, and scissors the value of scissors in actual combat. Not hypothetically, but actuality. West is in a race against that actuality and China more than dying Russia (and it was dying during the Obama administration) is the model for that tactical synthesis, but China is also far ahead in hypersonic tech. That's the only area I can say west has a arms race. And the US patriot system knocked a russian hypersonic missile put of the air when Russia attacked Kyiv, so I'm rather uncertain of what they want in terms of hypersonic defense. Keep patriot as it is, upgrade the current system, scrap it for something better? If assume lasers or something eventually. I dunno, lots of different directions. One thing is certain, I don't want NATO cities having hypersonic missile blitz launched on them like unprepared Kyiv, so do want the very best system available. Just like as a American I don't want a rogue nuke attack on us so want the best anti-ballistic missile system available. Having one didn't provoke China or the DPRK into a war. Russia got annoyed but no big deal.
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Alexis Jacobi
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Re: Wagner moving into Niger (close to WW3)
Yes, ended if the US and NATO would have directly intervened.Constantine wrote: This war could of been ended by now in Ukraine. Instead we will be discussing this war next year and I doubt you'll get it then that Biden is the primary culprit for the staggering death toll. US military doctrine aims not merely at low casualties for US forces but also enemy forces. American just war theory aims at little infrastructure damage to the enemy and nation rebuilding. Its not a 500,000 dead sort of doctrinal allowance you can fudge. Biden doesn't give a fuck. Allowing planes 16 months ago would of avoided a lot of these casualties.
Someone does have responsibility for the death-toll but accurately and fairly assessing who is responsible — that is where narratives collide.
There are very cynical theories as to why the US power-structure has fomented this terrible crisis. I am curious how you view Douglas McGregor’s analysis?
I cannot myself, for lack of knowledge, ultimately decide and I rely on the assessment of others. Have I been duped believing McGregor?
Then it stands to reason that other, entire causal chains, if not initiated, could have avoided the primary conflict, no?Allowing planes 16 months ago would of avoided a lot of these casualties.
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Constantine
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Re: Wagner moving into Niger (close to WW3)
Never heard of Douglas prior. He is one of many retired colonels with opinions. If you can link me to something?
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Alexis Jacobi
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Re: Wagner moving into Niger (close to WW3)
There is so much. I think this comes from his own YouTube channel called Straight Calls.Constantine wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 5:29 pm Never heard of Douglas prior. He is one of many retired colonels with opinions. If you can link me to something?
Ron Paul interviews him. His core message doesn’t vary much. He has repeated the same analysis for 1-1/2 years.
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Constantine
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Re: Wagner moving into Niger (close to WW3)
I listened to 24 minutes of that.
The dialogue is vague Iambic and uses "Quo ruitus" attacks. Creates a sense of community and shared values while mocking those not fitting within the ideological framework- I'm guessing a variant of Austrian Economics given the stance of Debt to GDP Ratios?
This Colonel is strong in supporting shared affinities, identifies weak spots in Esprite de Corps with woke politics and resulting low morale in the military, but is very, very, very weak in his understandings of how international alliances work. I use classical systems, in this case primarily the writings of the philosopher Chanakya and his Rajamandala for calculating how states will identify threats and build interstate alliance networks. He shows next to no awareness of this and is upset not merely that NATO expanded, but that border regions would have a difference of opinion from his anti-alliance, isolationist views. Which is a no shit Sherlock moment. At least it would be if they had a counter point in the discussion.
The presumption of reverse engineering why Russia is angry at the west, fixation on NATO expansion, and the mythical belief we can return hack to a utopian point of neutrality is ridiculous. Again- Chanakya. Eastern Europe wouldn't likely of remained stagnant but would of flipped out they were isolated against their traditional foe Russia and neglect from western Europe- and they would of built their own alliance network, competing (likely out competing) NATO and snagging members from NATO into their bloc. Alot of assets like Turkey likely would of went with them or Russia. It was obvious after Chechnya Russia had every interest in reexpanding back into the former Soviet world, and prior to 2022, every war Russia fought on its borders was a war against its demographics collapse, swallowing up russian speaking territories outside of its borders. Why? Negative population growth and need to attract new citizens. After 2022 it was just anything formerly russian. There was no utopian point of non aggression, save maybe under Boris. Never Vladimir.
The US wouldn't of been able to achieve with the military industrial complex we both had and still have, the rearmament the Austrian School wants (strong military and police, hands off approach to society) with a collapsing international alliance system because when we make tanks (he is a tank colonel) we just don't make US only tanks but also tanks for other nations in a single run, to overall reduce the costs of the individual unit as it is a bulk order run of production. Sometimes foreign countries pay for our costs completely in such a run. We have to stay non-monopolistic in NATO and international arms sales while attracting enough buyers to buy our production runs. This doesn't work if you take a fuck you isolationist approach and retreat back to 1945 borders. Also doesn't work if you pretend like he does that everyone is a idiot in Washington using 1940 borders in trying to reach the European and Asian theaters with no forward bases in between. He glossed over how boxed in and screwed Chinese subs are in the South China Sea, and Russian subs stuck between Russia and Japan, easy to track and follow.
So I think in a fair debate he would lose against a better aware Colonel if I can detect these holes in his argument. If you want sources on Chanakya ask- his book is online, rajamandala had a wiki and lots of pictures on Google, and a 47 episode subtitled TV show exists on him on YouTube.
The dialogue is vague Iambic and uses "Quo ruitus" attacks. Creates a sense of community and shared values while mocking those not fitting within the ideological framework- I'm guessing a variant of Austrian Economics given the stance of Debt to GDP Ratios?
This Colonel is strong in supporting shared affinities, identifies weak spots in Esprite de Corps with woke politics and resulting low morale in the military, but is very, very, very weak in his understandings of how international alliances work. I use classical systems, in this case primarily the writings of the philosopher Chanakya and his Rajamandala for calculating how states will identify threats and build interstate alliance networks. He shows next to no awareness of this and is upset not merely that NATO expanded, but that border regions would have a difference of opinion from his anti-alliance, isolationist views. Which is a no shit Sherlock moment. At least it would be if they had a counter point in the discussion.
The presumption of reverse engineering why Russia is angry at the west, fixation on NATO expansion, and the mythical belief we can return hack to a utopian point of neutrality is ridiculous. Again- Chanakya. Eastern Europe wouldn't likely of remained stagnant but would of flipped out they were isolated against their traditional foe Russia and neglect from western Europe- and they would of built their own alliance network, competing (likely out competing) NATO and snagging members from NATO into their bloc. Alot of assets like Turkey likely would of went with them or Russia. It was obvious after Chechnya Russia had every interest in reexpanding back into the former Soviet world, and prior to 2022, every war Russia fought on its borders was a war against its demographics collapse, swallowing up russian speaking territories outside of its borders. Why? Negative population growth and need to attract new citizens. After 2022 it was just anything formerly russian. There was no utopian point of non aggression, save maybe under Boris. Never Vladimir.
The US wouldn't of been able to achieve with the military industrial complex we both had and still have, the rearmament the Austrian School wants (strong military and police, hands off approach to society) with a collapsing international alliance system because when we make tanks (he is a tank colonel) we just don't make US only tanks but also tanks for other nations in a single run, to overall reduce the costs of the individual unit as it is a bulk order run of production. Sometimes foreign countries pay for our costs completely in such a run. We have to stay non-monopolistic in NATO and international arms sales while attracting enough buyers to buy our production runs. This doesn't work if you take a fuck you isolationist approach and retreat back to 1945 borders. Also doesn't work if you pretend like he does that everyone is a idiot in Washington using 1940 borders in trying to reach the European and Asian theaters with no forward bases in between. He glossed over how boxed in and screwed Chinese subs are in the South China Sea, and Russian subs stuck between Russia and Japan, easy to track and follow.
So I think in a fair debate he would lose against a better aware Colonel if I can detect these holes in his argument. If you want sources on Chanakya ask- his book is online, rajamandala had a wiki and lots of pictures on Google, and a 47 episode subtitled TV show exists on him on YouTube.
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Alexis Jacobi
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Re: Wagner moving into Niger (close to WW3)
Note: I became interested in *ancient* Indian treatises on statecraft and political philosophy so I am not unfamiliar with Arthashastra and related texts. I can now better understand how you'd blend Machiavellian statecraft concepts with the Indian concepts.
It seems that your argument hinges on a *what should have been done* premise. According to your view the US and Allies should have immediately entered the war with full force. Were that to have been done, 300-400,000 Ukrainians might not have died.
I am not sure of your assessment of him as politically naive is completely accurate. But in any ultimate sense I cannot myself offer an assessment. I just observe and always through the *lenses* supplied to me by what information I can access.
My own view is and remains that it all should have been avoided. But at this point that, too, is a useless assertion.
Finally, what is happening now (Ukrainian is not winning and incredible damage has been done to it from which recovery will be difficult and possibly doubtful) is really the issue at hand.
At this point do you care to speculate on what will happen in the next year or so?
It seems that your argument hinges on a *what should have been done* premise. According to your view the US and Allies should have immediately entered the war with full force. Were that to have been done, 300-400,000 Ukrainians might not have died.
I am not sure of your assessment of him as politically naive is completely accurate. But in any ultimate sense I cannot myself offer an assessment. I just observe and always through the *lenses* supplied to me by what information I can access.
My own view is and remains that it all should have been avoided. But at this point that, too, is a useless assertion.
Finally, what is happening now (Ukrainian is not winning and incredible damage has been done to it from which recovery will be difficult and possibly doubtful) is really the issue at hand.
At this point do you care to speculate on what will happen in the next year or so?
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Constantine
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Re: Wagner moving into Niger (close to WW3)
No. Not my position.
If Biden was president and I was advising him, I'd be asked to leave.
If Trump was president and I was advising him, I'd tell him not to send traditional troops. Instead treat the Ukrainian line as our interior line, and supply the Ukrainians with stocks of abrams and start training F-16 pilots immediately. Advertise loudly, and say a attack on US forces doing arm sales (free but still a sale) is a attack on NATO and article 5 will be invoked. I would announce the intention to drain every asset in Europe but will replenish it with stocks in America. Unless Putin wants to cut a deal. Then I'd have Trump fly in and meet in Ukraine- in Kiev, as the Russians push in, with Ranger battalions 1, 2, and 3 providing presidential security in lieu of the secret service.
I'm fairly confident Putin would of hit the brakes faster on the Kyiv March and realized immediately the tactical synthesis no longer was in Russia's favor.... a defensive trench front with Abrams and F-16s isn't long term possible. A quick break off would be prudent, he would of retreated to Donesk and Crimea again and 2022 would of ended in treaty. Interior vs Exterior lines. I just don't know if Trump would of been able to get Ukraine into NATO or cared. Hard to say if Biden really cares.
If Biden was president and I was advising him, I'd be asked to leave.
If Trump was president and I was advising him, I'd tell him not to send traditional troops. Instead treat the Ukrainian line as our interior line, and supply the Ukrainians with stocks of abrams and start training F-16 pilots immediately. Advertise loudly, and say a attack on US forces doing arm sales (free but still a sale) is a attack on NATO and article 5 will be invoked. I would announce the intention to drain every asset in Europe but will replenish it with stocks in America. Unless Putin wants to cut a deal. Then I'd have Trump fly in and meet in Ukraine- in Kiev, as the Russians push in, with Ranger battalions 1, 2, and 3 providing presidential security in lieu of the secret service.
I'm fairly confident Putin would of hit the brakes faster on the Kyiv March and realized immediately the tactical synthesis no longer was in Russia's favor.... a defensive trench front with Abrams and F-16s isn't long term possible. A quick break off would be prudent, he would of retreated to Donesk and Crimea again and 2022 would of ended in treaty. Interior vs Exterior lines. I just don't know if Trump would of been able to get Ukraine into NATO or cared. Hard to say if Biden really cares.
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Constantine
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Re: Wagner moving into Niger (close to WW3)
I should also note Russians hold closely to doctrine. Everything Putin has ever done was cautious and calculating up until 2022 (due to Biden looking incredibly weak), and very limited. He's always checking to see if there is a reaction, and hesitated realizing the Republic of Georgia would rebuke him. Anal Retentive charactures like this are easily rebuked by swift, confident actions and the show of stamina and indifference to cost, but there has to by a synchronized motion of action first then they plan, not the other way around where Russians get to analyze intentions of NATO first and then plan their response unmolested. The difference between a 15 day war and a 15 year war is not grasping this phenomena at the outset and the confidence to carry it out. Biden is incapable. He would of pointed to laws and constitutional hurdles. It's easier to ask for forgiveness than permission when it comes to using emergency presidential powers. So much blood could of been saved. I'm more freaked out at high russian casualties.... it's going to be hard from stopping them from turning more fascistic than they currently are with this level of loss.
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Impenitent
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Gary Childress
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Re: Wagner moving into Niger (close to WW3)
Our societies have been in a state of self-inflicted "war" for over a year now. Truth is the first casualty. Anything could have happened. The CIA might have snatched him or he may be hiding. Or, of course, he might be dead.Impenitent wrote: ↑Wed Aug 23, 2023 7:45 pm https://time.com/6307616/wagner-prigozhin-jet-crash/
Putin said bye bye
-Imp
In any case, I'll file it next to the UFO sightings, bizarre science discoveries claimed recently, and other odd things I've seen on my web browser home page. Maybe 50 years from now (if there is anyone left) someone will piece together what "actually" happened when I typed this. I have no fucking clue anymore. So much for science and knowledge.
We interrupt this segment of human progress to bring you the following war. This is hopefully a test and just a test, but we're not sure yet. Stay tuned for further details.
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Gary Childress
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Re: Wagner moving into Niger (close to WW3)
Just in from Fox news - he had info on HIlary.Impenitent wrote: ↑Wed Aug 23, 2023 7:45 pm https://time.com/6307616/wagner-prigozhin-jet-crash/
Putin said bye bye
-Imp
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Constantine
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Re: Wagner moving into Niger (close to WW3)
I don't know about this, he just arrived in Mali yesterday. But maybe. I'll see what everyone is saying in a bit.