Wagner moving into Niger (close to WW3)

[Constantine]

I'm seeing three different theories. My best sources say Putin shot him and his top commanders down in Russia with Russian Air Defense Missiles.

Second comes from Pro-Wagner groups, they think he is still alive (second Wagner plane landed in Moscow and police rushed it). Those who think is dead is calling for a second Wagner March for justice on Moscow. It isn't happening anytime soon.

Third is Ukraine did it. Ukrainians don't believe they did it, but wished they did.

I'm confused a bit as prighozin was supposed to be in Africa. But I'm happy if he is dead. This hurts Putin alot, Putin just lost his best commanders.

[promethean75]

We need to apply some strategy analytics and figure out Putin's options now. His biggest problem is, at some point he'll be pressed to confirm Wager guy is dead and expected to be able to know or not from the wreckage analysis.

Now, if Wager guy isn't dead, does Putin still claim he is even if he knows he's not. Unlikely, becuz what happens when wagner guy does a video and proves he's still alive next week? Putin's caught in a lie. We can rule this strategy out then.

On the other hand, would it be better for putin to officially claim that any remains of the wagner guy were never recovered. Here he could create a pretext for justifying even more draconic rule and tighter national security; wagner is MIA and could be planning seditious acts in secret, etc.

Now u might think that this wouldn't work since the wagner ranks would state publicly that they've had no contact with the wagner guy so he must be dead, etc.

But there is plausible deniability here on some Machiavellian level shit. Putin can trust that if the wagner guy was still alive (hypothetically) the Russian people and the world might expect him to NOT make contact with his group becuz that would guarantee Putin's knowing he's alive... and with that would follow more assassination attempts. It would make sense that wagner guy stayed on the down low and off the radar, not making contact with his group. That theory could make sense to zee raashins and the world.

If i were Putin I'd go with the last strategy and see how long I could pull it off (all this granting he's confirmed dead of course)

[Constantine]

Wagner Group (or someone running their affiliate account) has already declared the need for vengeance against the traitors. If amd how it materializes is little concern to me, right now it is what happens to Wagner units overseas. Putin could cut them off, reenlisy them or they could be hired to another PMC.

If Wagner Group dissolves with no follow up (Wagner troops living in exile or not), then concerns of this being WW3 goes away. Alot of the Sahel did get wrapped up in russian-coup politics but not all of it and it will come to a fairly radical stop if Putin does no follow up. It's up to Putin.

No Wagner in Niger (some landed last week), means 80% of US concerns go away. Remaining 20% is looking a responsive ally to ECOWAS so as not to spoil future interactions in the century to come. Russia too wants that supposedly. So this might all dissolve fairly fast.

[Constantine]

Nigeria is now claiming forces for a invasion of Niger are in position to invade, and the obky thing stopping them is the Nigerian President. Looks like this is happening.

[promethean75]

I would imagine that since the Wagner group consists of so many prisoners/inmates (given pardon in exchange for fighting etc), and inmates require the government's consent to be released, the group would dissolve becuz putin wouldn't let any more inmates out to be Wagner soldiers. That and Putin will stop funding them. Eventually the remaining members will try to get mercenary work in other countries that has nothing officially to do with russia. Or fuck it, Putin might restructure the group and put em all back to work under new management.

[promethean75]

Haven't heard from Constantine (call sign golden boy) in weeks. It's very possible he was captured in Nigeria if he's fucking around with his old crew. Said he was done with that life tho and trying to move on. Said he wanted the wife (in a wheelchair), the mortgage, the kids, u know the normal life.