Will America be the next China in the end?

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FlashDangerpants
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Re: Will America be the next China in the end?

Post by FlashDangerpants »

Above us only sky wrote: Mon Jun 26, 2017 12:14 am
FlashDangerpants wrote: Sun Jun 25, 2017 11:46 am Are you serious?

There is no correlation between population size and authoritarian government. I don't need a big theory to describe two unrelated things not being related to each other.
Take the example of ancient Greece and ancient eygpt, in ancient Greece, it was direct democracy because it is possible to assemble 10 hundred people across the whole city-state to the city center to discuss things and make a vote then go home to cook dinner in a single day; it is impossible in ancient eygpt to organize 10 thousand people from all Eygpt into the city center of Cairo to cast a vote and then go home to cook dinner (the voting thing will become a hunger strike).

Another example:
In city-state of Sparta, the system is a direct dictatorship, Because it is possible for the ruler of Sparta to know and dictate what his citizens must do in a city with less than 10 hundred people.

In ancient eygpt, the Pharaoh has no way to know and dictate what his citizens must do because eygpt is much bigger with much more population than Sparta, therefore ancient eygpt was an authoritarian state.

Population size does make a major difference, whether you accept it or not.
You are still resorting to unsupported assertion. I'm having difficulty taking seriously that the slave dependent economies of Athens and Sparta are to be considered so much more egalitarian than Egypt.

By now we should have been arguing about correlation and cause. But you still have no correlation and your arguments are becoming circular. All you are doing now is pointing to dissimilarly sized nations, claiming the larger must be more oppressive because it is larger, and then discarding oppressive small countries as the unlimited exceptions to your rule.

It isn't working for you and your theory needs a comprehensive rethink.
Above us only sky
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Re: Will America be the next China in the end?

Post by Above us only sky »

Arising_uk wrote: Mon Jun 26, 2017 2:10 am
If this is the case aren't you ignoring the current technological advances that would make it easily possible for billions to be involved in a direct democracy and they can be cooking their dinner whilst they do it.
Being a politician is first of all a job. Many rich people wish to run for offices because being a polician is where big money is.

If one day America became a direct democracy in which ordinary people could make important decisions for their country, and the voting can be done with an app on everybody's smart phones, then how can those congressmen & congresswomen make a living? Do you think a boss is willing to hire a former congressman who is experiencing his middle age crisis and just lost his job?

You could go to the congress and make the suggestion to those congressmen & congresswomen that America should be a direct democracy where people can vote and make all decisions with their smart phones, but I suggest you 'd better wear a body armor in the morning before entering the capitol, because there might be a mass attack coming towards you. :shock: :shock:
Last edited by Above us only sky on Mon Jun 26, 2017 3:34 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Above us only sky
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Re: Will America be the next China in the end?

Post by Above us only sky »

Science Fan wrote: Mon Jun 26, 2017 1:50 am You already agreed with me that there was a distinction between illegal immigrants in the USA, and women in Athens. So, what do you do? Now, contradict yourself and claim the two situations are the same?

The two situations are not the same, and no Athens was not a democracy, as It excluded most of its domestic population from having the right to vote. That's certainly not a society that was not based on a hierarchy, as you've been claiming.
I did not say the immigrant situation and the women situation is the same.

But I do insist that the logic behind your argument of Athen and my argument of America is the same: you can not say a democracy is not a democracy by saying in that democracy some people have no voting right.
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Arising_uk
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Re: Will America be the next China in the end?

Post by Arising_uk »

Above us only sky wrote:Being a politician is first of all a job. Many rich people wish to run for offices because being a polician is where big money is. ...
Not here in the UK it isn't.
If one day America became a direct democracy in which ordinary people could make important decisions for their country, and the voting can be done with an app on everybody's smart phones, then how can those congressmen & congresswomen make a living? Do you think a boss is willing to hire a former congressman who is experiencing his middle age crisis and just lost his job?

You could go to the congress and make the suggestion to those congressmen & congresswomen that America should be a direct democracy where people can vote and make all decisions with their smart phones, but I suggest you 'd better wear a body armor in the morning before entering the capitol, because there might be a mass attack coming towards you. :shock: :shock:
Sounds like you don't live in a democracy.

You'll still need politicians to propose policies and to implement them according to the electorate's wishes, etc.

You ignore the point and the point is that it is perfectly feasible to run nations with larger populations via direct democracy nowadays so your 'theory' doesn't hold up.
Last edited by Arising_uk on Mon Jun 26, 2017 4:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Will America be the next China in the end?

Post by Science Fan »

There is a big difference between a state giving voting rights to non-citizens, and a state denying its citizens the right to vote, simply because of their gender. Your argument is based on a false comparison, and is a complete non-starter.

In addition to denying women the right to vote, they also denied the right to vote to many others, so, that in the end, very few Athenians had the right to vote. That's hardly an egalitarian society, and not a democracy. If I lived in a nation that denied women the right to vote, I would not think for a second that I was living in a democracy.
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Re: Will America be the next China in the end?

Post by Above us only sky »

FlashDangerpants wrote: Mon Jun 26, 2017 3:15 am
You are still resorting to unsupported assertion. I'm having difficulty taking seriously that the slave dependent economies of Athens and Sparta are to be considered so much more egalitarian than Egypt.
I did not say 'Athens and Sparta are to be considered so much more egalitarian than Egypt'.

Let me clarify what I said:

The city-state of Athen has direct democracy but Eygpt is not is because direct democracy is only suitable for very small country.

The city-state of Sparta is a direct dictatorship but Eygpt is not a direct dictatorship but an authoritarian state is because direct dictatorship, as well as direct democracy, is only suitable for very small country.
FlashDangerpants wrote: Mon Jun 26, 2017 3:15 am By now we should have been arguing about correlation and cause. But you still have no correlation and your arguments are becoming circular. All you are doing now is pointing to dissimilarly sized nations, claiming the larger must be more oppressive because it is larger, and then discarding oppressive small countries as the unlimited exceptions to your rule.

It isn't working for you and your theory needs a comprehensive rethink.
If I show you my correlation and cause, I 'm afraid you will be the one who needs comprehensive rethink, are you ready for it ??? :shock: :shock: :shock:

Here is the correlation and cause, although not 100% complete:


Democracy functions best in an equal society. ( Is a millionaire happy to have the same 1 vote as a homeless man? )

And dictatorship functions best in an equal society, too. (A dictator asks a millionaire to pay more tax, and the millionaire returns home and thinks 'maybe he has to be overthrown, I can be a better dictator than him' )

As the population of a society grows, a society will became more and more sophisticated, different social class will appears, social stratification leads to more and more social class.

In an unequal society where the gap between rich and poor is big, the rich is more willing and more likely to use their power and wealth to get what they want, this means in a democracy the rich will manipulate the voting or disfranchise the poor; in a dictatorship the rich will plot against the dictator.
and the result is social instability which in the end will make a civilization collapse.

To save our fragile human civilization, here comes the solution :

Under the authoritarian system, a strong 'central power' calls the shot and the freedom and well-bing of individuals (especially individuals with less money and status ) is subordinate to this 'central power'.

This 'central power' can be many things,In America it may be (or has been) the wall street; In China it has been 'the Princelings'.

The 'contral power' maintains its tight control by political monopoly; In this world there are lots of smarter way to achieve this, it can be done through a one-party system where there is no second party or it can be done through a two-party system where a third party can never win in an election.

Unlike democracy where ordinary people can call the shot, in this authoritarian system it is always the rich and powerful, 'the central' who calls the shot;

unlike dictatorship where only the dictator himself can call the shot, in this authoritarian system the rich and powerful can only call the shot after they have reached a consensus among themselves first ( which reduces lots of endless infights among the rich and powerful themselves)

Therefore as population grows, more social stratification appears, to maintain social stabiliy, democracy and dictatorship will give way to authoritarianism over time.
Last edited by Above us only sky on Mon Jun 26, 2017 5:12 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Science Fan
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Re: Will America be the next China in the end?

Post by Science Fan »

There are serious flaws in your claim. If population was the determinative factor, then you have a problem explaining the facts that the USA, while having a larger population than Nazi Germany, was far less despotic than Nazi Germany. This is also true when one compares Venezuela, Cuba, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Iran to the population size of the USA. The empirical facts undermine your claim.
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Re: Will America be the next China in the end?

Post by Science Fan »

What we do know is that humans evolved in smaller social groups than we have today. This explains why so few people actually vote in democratic elections ---- people are simply not wired through evolution to be concerned about the fates of millions of people. This apathy does not necessarily result in more totalitarianism.
Above us only sky
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Re: Will America be the next China in the end?

Post by Above us only sky »

Science Fan wrote: Mon Jun 26, 2017 5:10 pm There are serious flaws in your claim. If population was the determinative factor, then you have a problem explaining the facts that the USA, while having a larger population than Nazi Germany, was far less despotic than Nazi Germany. This is also true when one compares Venezuela, Cuba, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Iran to the population size of the USA. The empirical facts undermine your claim.
The post posted above yours is my reasons, are you ready for it ??? 8) :shock: 8) :shock:
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FlashDangerpants
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Re: Will America be the next China in the end?

Post by FlashDangerpants »

Above us only sky wrote: Mon Jun 26, 2017 5:02 pm If I show you my correlation and cause, I 'm afraid you will be the one who needs comprehensive rethink, are you ready for it ??? :shock: :shock: :shock:
You do understand that if you demonstrate cause then the correlation is redundant right?
Above us only sky wrote: Mon Jun 26, 2017 5:02 pm Here is the correlation and cause, although not 100% complete:


Democracy functions best in an equal society. ( Is a millionaire happy to have the same 1 vote as a homeless man? )
That's a bit of a stretch. You're off to a terrible start with another unproven assertion again.
I could just argue that democracy offers a means for the less wealthy to outvote the rich and thus thrives in less equal societies.
It doesn't matter whether I agree with my own statement, it's logically at least as good as yours.
Above us only sky wrote: Mon Jun 26, 2017 5:02 pmAnd dictatorship functions best in an equal society, too. (A dictator asks a millionaire to pay more tax, and the millionaire returns home and thinks 'maybe he has to be overthrown, I can be a better dictator than him' )
And that's another unprovable assertion, plus it seems extremely unrealistic.
The fall of dictatorships is usually quite a complex business and that is not an impressive attempt to explain it.
Above us only sky wrote: Mon Jun 26, 2017 5:02 pm As the population of a society grows, a society will became more and more sophisticated, different social class will appears, social stratification leads to more and more social class.
A wider variety of strata reduces the overall differentiation between the layers and thus it also reduces the tendency of the "classes" to associate only with their own narrow groups which in turn reduces the rate of social friction and this explains qhy modern (large, even huge) democracies are so much less given to riots and revolution than those same societies were a few centuries ago.

Again, it doesn't matter whether I agree with my own statement above, it's logically at least as good as yours.
Above us only sky wrote: Mon Jun 26, 2017 5:02 pm In an unequal society where the gap between rich and poor is big, the rich is more willing and more likely to use their power and wealth to get what they want, this means in a democracy the rich will manipulate the voting or disfranchise the poor; in a dictatorship the rich will plot against the dictator.
and the result is social instability which in the end will make a civilization collapse.
The proof this is untrue lies in the rarity of civilisations just collapsing the way you describe. So let's assume you didn't mean that overblown phrase and you are just referring to states falling into disarray, or governments being toppled.
The strength of democracy lies in the fact that the rich cannot easily disenfranchise the poor. It's also a very dated marxist reading of class struggle to presume that the rich act any more monolithically than the poor do any way.
Developed democratic nations have institutions such as the free press, obnoxious bureaucracies, independent courts and police forces etc that make this misbehaviour of the rich highly difficult to pull off.
Above us only sky wrote: Mon Jun 26, 2017 5:02 pm Under the authoritarian system, a strong 'central power' calls the shot and the freedom and well-bing of individuals (especially individuals with less money and status ) is subordinate to this 'central power'.

This 'central power' can be many things,In America it may be (or has been) the wall street; In China it has been 'the Princelings'.
Now you are just babbling complete gibberish again. You've lost control of yourself.
Above us only sky wrote: Mon Jun 26, 2017 5:02 pm..... [some more silliness]....
Sorry, you just lost my attention now.
Try to keep your arguments coherent.
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Re: Will America be the next China in the end?

Post by Above us only sky »

Arising_uk wrote: Mon Jun 26, 2017 3:52 pm Not here in the UK it isn't.
I'm not saying all the people run for offices for money and power, but I do say many people do this for money and power.
Above us only sky
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Re: Will America be the next China in the end?

Post by Above us only sky »

Arising_uk wrote: Mon Jun 26, 2017 3:52 pm
If one day America became a direct democracy in which ordinary people could make important decisions for their country, and the voting can be done with an app on everybody's smart phones, then how can those congressmen & congresswomen make a living? Do you think a boss is willing to hire a former congressman who is experiencing his middle age crisis and just lost his job?

You could go to the congress and make the suggestion to those congressmen & congresswomen that America should be a direct democracy where people can vote and make all decisions with their smart phones, but I suggest you 'd better wear a body armor in the morning before entering the capitol, because there might be a mass attack coming towards you. :shock: :shock:
Sounds like you don't live in a democracy.

You'll still need politicians to propose policies and to implement them according to the electorate's wishes, etc.

You ignore the point and the point is that it is perfectly feasible to run nations with larger populations via direct democracy nowadays so your 'theory' doesn't hold up.
Sounds like you do not live in a 'democracy' either, in a 'democracy' (uk, japan, etc.) politicians do not implement policies, the implement of policies is the job of the civil service system.

In uk politicians propose policies, but in a direct democracy it is people who propose policies.

If it is perfectly feasible to run nations with larger populations via direct democracy, why haven't we see one yet??? :shock: :shock: :shock:
Above us only sky
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Re: Will America be the next China in the end?

Post by Above us only sky »

Science Fan wrote: Mon Jun 26, 2017 5:10 pm There are serious flaws in your claim. If population was the determinative factor, then you have a problem explaining the facts that the USA, while having a larger population than Nazi Germany, was far less despotic than Nazi Germany. This is also true when one compares Venezuela, Cuba, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Iran to the population size of the USA. The empirical facts undermine your claim.
Let me get some basic things right: Nazi Germany, like North Korea, is a totalitarian state, it is not an authoritarian state.

Totalitarianism and authoritarianism is not the same thing, if you still confuse them, I suggest you 'd better buy a political science textbook and read it carefully.

Totalitarianism is a modern form of direct dictatorship, it can only appears in a nation state which is experiencing major crisis, and totalitarianism in a nation state can only last for a very short time.

Germany is the defeated country in world war one, those huge war reparation Germany has to pay combined with the 1929 world economic crisis produces a Nazi Germany, which only last for a few decades which is a very short period of time in the long German history.

My central arguement, if I boil it down to just one sentense, it is this:

For a nation state (note here I did not include small city state here) under normal circumstances ( no major foreign threats, no major economic crisis), as population grows, that nation state will slowly became more authoritarian over time.
Above us only sky
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Re: Will America be the next China in the end?

Post by Above us only sky »

FlashDangerpants wrote: Mon Jun 26, 2017 8:46 pm Now you are just babbling complete gibberish again. You've lost control of yourself.
Above us only sky wrote: Mon Jun 26, 2017 5:02 pm..... [some more silliness]....
Sorry, you just lost my attention now.
Try to keep your arguments coherent.
For us to have a proper philosophical discuss, you have to drop the stereotype that authoritarianism is an oriental Chinese/Indian invention first.

Authoritarianism is in the DNA of western civilization. A full-grown western nation will take authoritarianism in time just like a boy will have moustache when he grows into a full-grown man.

If you take a look on the history of western civilization, you will realize it is the case.

Ancient Rome starts in 8th century BC as a small city-state kingdom, as Rome expands it became a nation controling not just Rome but vast areas in central Italy and adopt a very democratic classical republic system in the year 509 BC;

As Rome controls more and more population, finally in 27 BC, to govern those huge population effectively it became an authoritarian nation known as The Roman Empire, which lasts until the year 1447 AD when the Eastern Roman Empire finaly fall. That is more than 1400 years of authoritarianism in the history of western civilization.

By asking 'Will America be the next China in the end?' I 'm not suggesting that America will be a poorer country as India and China in the end; I'm not saying that America will be China, I 'm just saying a full-grown western nation will take authoritarianism in time as it grows, and this new western authoritarianism will have a lot in common with the Chinese/Indian authoritarianism.
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Re: Will America be the next China in the end?

Post by Above us only sky »

FlashDangerpants wrote: Mon Jun 26, 2017 8:46 pm
You do understand that if you demonstrate cause then the correlation is redundant right?
The correlation is this:

For a nation state (note here I did not include small city state here) under normal circumstances ( no major foreign threats, no major economic crisis), as population grows and society straitify, that nation state will slowly became more authoritarian over time.

This means a nation-state dictatorship will gradually evolve into an authoritarian system; likewise, a nation state democracy will also gradually evolve into an authoritarian system as population grows and society straitify.

I could not provide the exact figure as to how much population will trigger the evolution, however if you look at the population of each country on earth you will have a big picture.
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